The Hotlist 2011

HOTLIST 2011 – Testing your Metal.
2011 has all the ingredients of being a very good year for Commodities. Metals are in huge favour, Oil appears set to test $100 and the US Federal Reserve appears bullish/keen to see the sector do well – all looks to be in place for a fine year in Equities.

Thus, in contrast to the 2010 Hotlist, colours have been nailed firmly to the Commodities mast with a clean sweep. If Commodities are not your bag, then look away now.

In demand –
The last quarter of 2010 saw many Small Cap Commodities surge ahead. The last week of trading was particularly strong with many small AIM listed players rising as much as 50% or more. Stunning.

High growth expectations = High risk expectations
Due to the small cap nature of many of the stocks listed below – most are extremely high risk and not for the faint hearted. This is a Hotlist that really is Hot. There is a very LOW chance that all 10 will be complete success stories as many rely on successful exploration/drill programs. It’s possible that you could lose all of the money that you invest.

Investors should consult the Risk Warning section on this website and consult a financial advisor if unsure about any stocks highlighted.

Investors should think through their own individual trading/investing strategies such as entry points and exits points. It’s important to be realistic and take profits when you feel the time is right. As highlighted in the 2010 Results, often opportunities arise from simply ‘waiting’ for the right entry. TRP was a good example. Tipped at 4.38p in Jan 4th, the stock surged ahead in the early weeks due to a Drill that was underway and could have been transformational to the company if successful. Unfortunately it wasn’t to be and the well was abandoned. The Sp tumbled from 4.4p to 1p. This is not typical of all Commodity stocks but generally speaking, any duster or abandoned drill can see heavy corrections. However, these corrections can provide brilliant opportunities to brave investors. TRP is a great example of ‘fortune favours the brave’. Based on success near their licence block, interest returned to TRP as investors started to see beyond the first drill/duster and looked forward to the next one. The sp rose 500% from 1p to 5p. A five BAGGER to some investors with timing skills more attributed to a Swiss Watch.

The lesson to be learned here is to stay focused, do not rush in, do your research and be aware of which stocks are currently drilling and when the results are due. Focus on which exploration drills are up next and where is the key support levels and asset values? Are they fully funded or will they need more cash via placings, rights issues (Ri’s) or Open Offers (OO’s)?

TheShareHub aims to offer insights throughout the year with up-to-date coverage on all the Hotlist stocks. Further to this, the ‘Heads Up’ section will deliver alerts and updates on stocks that catch the eye. In 2010, in addition to the Hotlist, several ‘Heads Up’ alerts were given on many stocks. Xcite (at 40p) and Encore (at 16p) are two that shine through delivering a 10 Bagger and 8 BAGGER respectively.

Hence, sitting on the sidelines and waiting for the “Heads Up’ posts throughout the year, rather than getting stuck into the Hotlist early doors ‘might’ prove just as rewarding.

The last and most valuable thing to remember is to be ‘patient’. This proved the key strategy in 2009 and 2010. If you ask any investor what they feel they could do better – most will simply say ‘nothing’. As odd as it sounds, being active and trading in and out of stocks can be rewarding if you are experienced and good at it. However, the last two years have shown that ‘doing nothing’, simply sitting on your hands and letting the stocks do the work often delivers the best rewards. Determine your strategy early and stick to it or adjust it as you see fit based on the markets ever changing circumstances. If unsure – consult an FSA approved advisor.

Without further ado – here’s the list. Enjoy!

THE HOTLIST 2011
With so many great stocks out there, it’s a tough task picking just 10 of them. All the selected stocks have been selected based on meeting various criteria. This year there will also be an ‘alternative’ stock to look at as well. The Hotlist will be the number one focus, but a ‘subs bench’ or ‘B’ league will also be available. This will offer a fun aspect this year as potentially the B listers could outperform the A listers. Feels like the FA Cup!

First up (by virtue of alphabetical order) is…

1. Anglo Asian Mining (AAZ) www.aamining.com
Gold, Silver, Copper – Explorer & Producer
Risk – MEDIUM
2010 Dec 31st sp 70.75p

Anglo Asian Mining Plc is the only gold producer in Azerbaijan. The company owns the rights to develop six fields in south-west Azerbaijan at Gedabey, Ordubad, Gosha Bulag, Gizil Bulag, Vejnali and Soyutlu. According to their PSC, it is planned to produce about 400 tons of gold, 2,500 tons of silver and 1.5 million tons of copper at the fields.

The first gold and silver were extracted at Gedabey mine in May 2009. In general, it is planned to produce over 300,000 ounces of gold at Gedabey field before 2015. In Dec 2010, the company announced that they had repaid $5.4 million of its outstanding loan with the International Bank of Azerbaijan ahead of schedule, bringing the current loan balance to $29.6 million.

The debt payment demonstrates their cash progress and intention to reduce debt swiftly. If all goes to plan in 2011, it’s possible that all debt will be cleared and profits will be sizable for a company with a market cap of just circa £72mln.

TheShareHub target price for 2011 is 170p.

Alternative pick – Jubliee Platinum (JLP)

Recommended Reading
http://www.aamining.com/downloads/2010_Resource_Estimate_on_Gedabek_Gold_Deposit_final_20101018_reduced.pdf

2. Beacon Hill Resources (BHR) www.bhrplc.com
Coal, Magnesite – Explorer & Producer
Risk – HIGH
2010 Dec 31st sp 15.75p

Beacon Hill currently has two primary interests; a significant magnesite asset in north-west Tasmania, which has a current defined resource of 39Mt, and exposure to the only producing coal mine in the globally significant coking coal region of Tete, Mozambique.

The Company has a defined development programme in place to advance its magnesite and coal projects towards production in the near term and the Board is actively seeking to acquire or invest in additional projects to add value to its portfolio and benefit shareholders.

The Company’s intention is to increase cash flow in the near term from its producing coal mine in Mozambique, whilst simultaneously expanding the current underground mining operation, which produces approximately 8,000 tonnes per month. Longer term objectives are to establish a large scale open cut operation to produce approximately 4Mtpa ROM coal by Q1 2012, capable of generating annual revenues of approximately US$200 million at current coal prices. Beacon Hill’s additional asset its significant magnesite project in north-west Tasmania, which is currently being developed with first production scheduled for Q4 2011. This will provide the Company with additional cash flow and facilitate the appraisal and potential acquisition of additional businesses or projects which meet the Company’s stringent investment criteria.

A recent placing at 12.5p suggest II’s see much higher value in BHR which is something that is easy to agree with when you view their assets and the rising Coal prices globally. This is an exciting stock with great promise.

TheShareHub Target Price for 2011 is 36p

Alternative pick – Xtract (XTR)

3. Bowleven (BLVN) www.bowleven.com
Oil & Gas – Explorer & Producer
Risk – MEDIUM
2010 Dec 31st sp 379p

Bowleven is a West Africa focused oil and gas group, based in Edinburgh and traded on AIM since December 2004. It holds equity interests in offshore and onshore exploration acreage in both Cameroon and Gabon.

Bowleven holds a 75% equity interest in the Etinde Permit, being three shallow-water blocks offshore Cameroon, West Africa: namely blocks MLHP-5, MLHP-6 and MLHP-7. The Etinde Permit comprises approximately 2,316 km² of exploration acreage located across the Rio del Rey and Douala Basins. As well as P50 and contingent resources on block MLHP-7, the acreage has very attractive exploration potential.

Bowleven also holds a 100% equity interest in the Bomono Permit, onshore Cameroon, extending to approximately 2,328 km2 in the Douala Basin. Bowleven holds its interests in its Cameroon operations through its wholly owned subsidiary EurOil Limited.

Drilling Operations on Sapele-1
On 9 November 2010, Bowleven announced that the Sapele-1 exploration well drilling in the Douala Basin in block MLHP-5 of the Etinde Permit offshore Cameroon, had made two potentially significant hydrocarbon discoveries in Miocene reservoirs, based on the results of drilling and initial wireline logs and pressure data.

As stated in that announcement, the revised preliminary in-place volumetrics on a P90 to P10 range were estimated to be 40 to 290 mmbbls for the Lower Omicron discovery or, in the event that the hydrocarbons at that interval are determined to be gas condensate, 75 to 595 bcf, and for the Deep Omicron discovery 55 to 380 mmbbls.

On 25 November 2010, Bowleven announced that the Sapele-1 well had encountered further log evaluated hydrocarbon pay in the Miocene reservoir objective, taking the estimated range of net pay across the Omicron discoveries to 31 to 43 metres.

The Aim-listed company is currently drilling the main part of Sapele1 and it’s fully financed to fund multiple wells this year thanks in part to a $113m (£74m) fund-raising at the end of 2010.

Kevin Hart the former finance director of Cairn Energy is leading a fine business and is well respected in the City.

TheShareHub Target Price for 2011 is 790p.

This could be revised upwards if the current drill in the Sapele1 Creatceous targets proves successful.

Alternative pick – Rockhopper (RKH)

Recommended Reading
http://www.bowleven.co.uk/uploads/Sapele%201%20announcement%20slides%2025%20November%202010.pdf

4. Caza Oil & Gas (CAZA) www.cazapetro.com
Oil & Gas – Explorer & Producer
Risk – HIGH
2010 Dec 31st sp 44.25p

Based in The Woodlands, Texas, Caza Oil & Gas, Inc. is engaged in the acquisition, exploration, development and production of hydrocarbons in the Texas Gulf Coast, South Louisiana, Southeast New Mexico and the Permian Basin of West Texas regions of the United States through its subsidiary, Caza Petroleum.

In November 2010, Caza raised £18.9 mln through a placing at 42p per share. Dual listed with Canada’s TSX, it is isable. Due to dual listing, no stamp duty is incurred with this stock.

On Dec 8th, the Company executed a drilling contract with Nabors Drilling USA, LP to utilize Nabors Rig 4 to drill the Marian Baker #1 well on Arran Prospect to a total depth of approximately 16,000 feet beginning on or around December 18, 2010. Arran is regarded by the Company to be a multi-segment prospect, with prospective reservoirs supported by AVO data within a proven play fairway. The Marian Baker #1 well is expected to encounter multiple, potential, hydrocarbon bearing reservoir sections. Caza will update the market accordingly when the well spuds.

On Dec 15th the company commenced production on the OB asset. Initial production rates through the permanent facilities are approximately 2.48 million cubic feet of natural gas per day, 400 barrels of oil per day and 190 barrels of water per day in total. The well is producing on a 9/64th choke at 6,100 pounds per square inch flowing tubing pressure and still has approximately 750 barrels of fracture fluid to recover. The production rates are being closely monitored, and Caza will provide an update once the rates and flowing tubing pressure have stabilised.

2011 looks an active year for Caza and the recent cash raised at 42p shows keen II interest. All eyes on the Arran prospect in Q1. Success at Arran would de-risk Tiree which is significant.

TheShareHub Target price for 2011 is 120p. This could be revised upwards based upon future discoveries.

Alternative pick – Range Resources (RRL)

http://www.cazapetro.com/index.php?id=10

5. Firestone Diamonds (FDI) www.firestonediamonds.com
Diamond Miner – Explorer & Producer
Risk – MEDIUM
2010 Dec 31st sp 32.25p

2010 was busy year that saw Firestone merge with Kopane Diamonds creating a much larger company with much greater prospects. The combination of the merger and a recent placing has weighed heavily on the stock as it moved towards its first ever production sale. With 2010 behind them, Firestone can look forward to an exciting 2011 where production is expected to double swiftly and cash flow could be significant based on the first auction price sale which fetched an average carat price of $98.

The Company plans to hold nine tenders in 2011. The average size of the BK11 tenders is expected to be approximately 12,000 carats, and the average size of the Liqhobong tenders is expected to start at approximately 15,000 carats, increasing to 50,000 carats by Q4 2011.

II’s have been building stakes – Audley raised their holding above 5% recently.

There’s nothing like increased production numbers and increasing diamond prices to get investors excited.

TheShareHub Target price for 2011 is 85p.

Alternative pick – Stellar Diamonds (STEL)

Recommended Reading
http://www.firestonediamonds.com/docs/pdf/firestone_diamonds_corporate_overview_Dec2010.pdf

6. Gulf Keystone (GKP) www.gulfkeystone.com
Oil & Gas – Explorer & Producer
Risk – HIGH
2010 Dec 31st sp 168.5p

Gulf Keystone is an independent company whose focus is on exploration in the Kurdistan region of northern Iraq. In November 2007 Gulf Keystone secured interests in two production sharing contracts in the Kurdistan Region of Northern Iraq, Shaikan and Akri-Bijeel. In 2009, the Company diversified the asset base in Kurdistan with the addition of two new Production Sharing Contracts, Sheikh Adi and Ber Bahr. This region has the potential to be a world class hydrocarbon province and Gulf Keystone believes it is well positioned to seek out further growth opportunities.

In 2009 GKP struck oil with their Shaikan Discovery and currently have oip numbers near 4.2bln based on p50. Currently 2 drills underway in SA-1 and SH-2. Both could increase oip numbers significantly. News is due early this year on recent SH-3 well including seismics plus production news too. Recent legal dispute has knocked the stock slightly and adds to the risk although BoD are confident it is without merit.

There’s no doubt it – GKP have made one of the most significant oil discoveries of the last decade. It’s now a race against time for them to firm up the Shaikan discovery through several appraisals. A move to the FTSE 250 has been on the agenda and this may come to fruition in Q1 2011. Key turning points in 2011 include SH-2 results and Iraq oil ministry inclusion/approval of all Kurd contracts/PSC’s expected before July 2011.

GKP was previously included in the 2010 Hotlist – finishing in second place.

TheShareHub Target price for 2011 is 550p.

Alternative picks – Heritage Oil (HOIL)

7. Herencia Resources (HER) www.herenciaresources.com
Zinc, Silver, Lead, Gold – Explorer
Risk – HIGH
2010 Dec 31st sp 3.725p

Herencia Resources plc is a mineral exploration and development company listed on the Alternative Investment Market (‘AIM’) of the London Stock Exchange with a primary focus on developing its Paguanta zinc-silver-lead-gold Project in northern Chile.

Herencia is fully funded for 2011 to commence a Feasibility Study for the proposed Patricia Mine (Zn, Pb, Ag and Au), with the goal of bringing Paguanta into production by 4Q2012. Funds will also be used to undertake drilling at the exciting “Doris” copper-silver prospect and the ‘La Rosa’ porphyry-copper target plus infill/step out drilling of the Patricia Mineral Resource.

Herencia has the backing of the global zinc group Nyrstar in addition to some well known London institutional groups.

2011 looks an exciting year for Herencia with Doris prospect likely to hit the headlines. The planned program will involve drilling of the ‘Doris’ prospect (targeting the high copper and silver grades seen on surface), the ‘La Rosa’ prospect (where the porphyry-copper potential will be the target) and ‘in-fill’ drilling of the ‘Patricia’ Mineral Resource with the aim of upgrading the Inferred Mineral Resource Estimate and collecting metallurgical and geotechnical core samples.

A diamond drilling rig is currently scheduled to mobilise to site during the 4th week of February 2011 with drilling work set to commence at Doris by the end that month. Once operation of the first rig has been established, it is planned to mobilised a second drill rig to site, possibly in April 2011.

In relation to the Feasibility Study, the Company is pleased to advise that Golder Associates (“Golder”) will commence their Study work during 1Q2011, with selected study components also starting in 2011.

Managing Director Michael Bohm stated “as seen in early 2010, our goal is to again hit the ground running at Paguanta. The Feasibility Study at Patricia and the Drilling Program, initially commencing at Doris, will mark a new chapter for the Project. Subject to meeting our planned mobilisation timetable we would anticipate first drill assay results from Doris sometime in April 2011.” END.

TheShareHub Target price for 2011 is 9.5p.

Alternative picks – Nyota Minerals (NYO)

Recommended Reading
http://www.herenciaresources.com/_content/documents/429.pdf

8. Ithaca Energy (IAE) www.ithacaenergy.com
Oil & Gas – Explorer and Producer
Risk – MEDIUM
2010 Dec 31st sp 169.75P

Ithaca has built a diversified portfolio of exploration, development and producing assets through participation in the last four United Kingdom Seaward licensing rounds and through asset acquisitions. This diversity is evidenced by properties in different geographic areas, encompassing multiple play types (both oil and gas), while maintaining a close proximity to producing fields in proven petroleum systems. Ithaca UK’s interests range from 16% to 100% in 26 blocks or partial blocks under 14 licences covering more than 203,600 acres.

ITHACA heads into 2011 fully funded and cash rich with no debt. Production is expected to reach 22kbopd in 2013. The company is currently one of the cheapest in the North Sea based on 2p reserves and 3p/assets.

Further acquisitions could come in 2011 which would add more depth to assets. If oil can stay around the $90 to $100 mark next year, Ithaca will be generating significant cash flow. Dual listed on TSX, Ithaca is isable and trades with no stamp duty. Ithaca was previously included in the 2010 Hotlist – topping the list.

TheShareHub Target price for 2011 is 275p.

Alternative picks – Valiant Petroleum (VPP)

9. Max Petroleum (MXP) www.maxpetroleum.com
Oil – Explorer and Producer
Risk – HIGH
2010 Dec 31st sp 18.25P

The Group’s strategy is to significantly grow its reserve base through the exploration and development of a diversified portfolio of shallow, post-salt and deeper, pre-salt prospects high graded using approximately 5,000 km2 of exploratory 3D data acquired over the Group’s extensive onshore acreage position in one of the most prolific petroleum bearing basins in the world.

Debt and future funding is their biggest hurdle in 2011. They have 3 x 4 way drill prospects due to be drilled in Q1. These have high CoS compared to previous drills. UTS results are expected soon and could surprise to the upside. Management had previously announced that early discovery was ‘significant’.

Further success on the last 3 drills will essentially ensure a better funding/placing price which is inevitable. The deep prospects are mouth watering and it’s possible that MXP could go alone on these with no farm outs. Much depends on funding results.

2011 is a make or break year for MXP. The first quarter of 2011 is crucial and if they can get towards a spud of the deeper prospects without too much dilution, then the upside potential is staggering.

TheShareHub Target price for 2011 is 55p.

Alternative pick – Dominion petroleum (DPL)

10. Nautical Petroleum (NPE) www.nauticalpetroleum.com
Oil – Explorer and Producer
Risk – MEDIUM
2010 Dec 31st sp 396p

Nautical Petroleum plc intends to become a significant producer of heavy oil, initially in the United Kingdom Continental Shelf (UKCS) and in Europe.

Our aim is to secure further heavy oil discoveries in the UKCS and EU through acquisitions, farm in’s and licensing rounds. We aim to achieve near term production on current assets and enhance crude value and mitigate risk through our relationships. We will acquire heavy oil exploration blocks with low to moderate commitments and farmout to mitigate portfolio risk, with the overall aim of enhancing shareholder value.

Recent successes in the North sea in 2010 have seen Nautical move from minnow to possible mid cap player. News is expected early next year on the oip estimates for Kraken – their heavy oil prospect. As seen by Xcite energy recently, Heavy oil can flow well and sells for just a 10% discount to lighter oil.

Currently NPE is a partner in the Encore operated drill of the Varadero prospect which is related to the significant Catcher discover made in the summer of 2010. TD is expected with the first week of January. If successful, it will increase the OIP numbers significantly and enhance the drill program to further wells. If unsuccessful – the rig will move back to the Catcher prospect and appraise the 2010 discovery further – this is thought to be a ‘banker’ as the CoS is high.

At 396p, Nautical are well supported through cash balance, assets and minor existing production. There is plenty of room for the upside case based on future success.

TheShareHub Target price for 2011 is 700p.

Alternative pick – Encore Oil (Eo.) or Excite Energy (XEL)

Finally, remember the previous 2010 hotlist is far from redundant and many stocks featured on there still have a long way to go in ‘some’ instances.

Further ‘Heads Up’ alerts will be issued throughout the year, so if you miss entry into the Hotlist or the ‘B’ list, don’t worry – there should be plenty of other stocks to focus on as the year unfolds.

132 thoughts on “The Hotlist 2011”

  1. Hi Hub,

    I have been reading your comments for a while now on iii and have always had great respect for you, I was in GKP at the early stages and sold at 140p and put some money in Char which is doing great these days, I’m also in MXP,PCI, NTOG, SOLO, AEX for now, I’m employed in the Oil and Gas Industry here in North Africa and see the future here in Africa for stock and shares.
    Keep up the great work.

  2. Hi Hub,

    What are your thoughts on Xcite’s need for a large placement to cover the costs of the rig etc? How would this affect the share price and do you feel it could leave us in the doldrums for a few months as Ithaca too suffered last year? I certainly hope not!

    Thanks Matt

    1. Matt,

      Which rig are you referring to? The newly signed ‘production’ rig won’t be in use until late Q4 so there will not be any cash burn required there for a long while yet.
      Currently, Xcite have been using the seda agreement to fund ops and there’s no reason why that shouldn’t continue.

      They could raise equity via the markets or via a farm out etc if they want to secure a second rig and appraise the field further ahead of the EPS.

      If the CPR is good, then they would be foolish to do a fundraiser before that news is published. If the sp climbs towards £5+ upon a great CPR then raising some cash via a placing at 450p+ wouldn’t be too bad at all. This is a £10 per share company in the making – so I see the downside as being limited providing oil can sustain itself above $60 for the next couple of years. And I don’t see that being a problem.

  3. Hi there sharehub – great to see the Herencia site. Well done everyone; great work..
    Also, I was looking at your past tips for 2010 with interest – VIALOGY – I think you picked the right company, in the wrong year..
    this year maybe? worth another look?
    Cheers PF

    1. I think many of the 2010 hotlist are still great stocks. For many the potential is unchanged or even better now. I hold Vialogy but have a long term view on it. At 4p range, they do look cheap against their current contract wins/performance. They could end the year near 6p+ so certainly worth keeping an eye on. Cash concerns going forward should be sorted by recent placing but the market wants to see how their biz model converts to hard cash.

    2. Hi PF,
      Great minds and all that, just what I have been thinking about Vialogy and there’s been a fair amount of chat on the boards.
      http://www.shareprice.co.uk/VIY/VIALOGY-PLC
      Trouble is that so often potential goes unrecognised, and if the tech is THAT good then I expected one of the majors will snap it up!
      I also saw this presentation on Peak Oil which is failry sobering
      http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cwNgNyiXPLk
      So anything that can help exploration and extraction has to be worth its weight in crude!
      Regards CS

    1. This looks great – well done to everyone involved. It should help a great deal with HER research for new and current investors.

      HUB

  4. A very useful and interesting resource Hub, thank you.
    AAZ had a write up in SHARES magazine on 13th Jan which echoes what you say. Headed Anglo Asian losing momentum, it cites lack of near-term growth as reason to take profits now. They say the share price looks vulnerable.They finish off by saying that the share could be worth revisiting later in the year when results start coming back from exploration projects which will be the key drivers for growth in the company.
    Anyway lots happening elsewhere, and the expected Stellar Diamonds news update will hopefully be positive. Thanks again

  5. Hub, a great site for newbies and old timers. I have been watching you for some time and thank you for your informed analysis on a number of shares that have made me some money.

    Keep up the good work

  6. Hi HUB, how about having a value for the 2011 hot list (say £1000) invested in each and see what the value is at the end of the year. It may make an interesting watch.

    p.s. is there somewhere on this site to send private messages?

    Stu.

    1. Stu,

      If you go to the Hotlist 2011 category – you’ll see that a virtual portfolio (albeit a static pic) has been set up with £1k in each stock. You can use the contact form to send a private message but bear with us as there are quite a few and cannot answer every one.
      Here’s the link to the virtual portfolio to make it easier for you http://thesharehub.com/?p=687

  7. Hi, your ten Hotlist picks are doing better over the whole ten than my current strategy, which is to invest in XEL and BLVN alone – and neither of those shares are going anywhere. I’m thinking of picking out some better performers. But I wanted to ask you if you have price targets for all 10 on the B list too? As you know XEL is probably just a 2-bagger this year, and may not reach that. Have you privately assigned values to the B listers? Thanks.

    1. BLVN have done ok this year – it’s early days. You need to be patient. Going after the fast quick buck stocks will bring higher risk and in some cases failure. Not all can succeed all the time. XEL and BLVN are solid stocks with great upside potential. It might take them 6 months to move 30% or even 50% but that’s a sizable gain for the risk attached.

      The smaller caps are more volatile and will swing around. Some are finding their value/footing in a buoyant market but in time will need to support their rises with solid news and progress. You sound like you are chasing ‘growth’ rather than planning a strategy for it. You’ll always be chasing other stocks if you feel the grass is greener on the otherside. It’s not healthy. You need to determine your own personal growth strategy which is aligned to your own risk appetite. As an example, IAE (ithaca) topped the 2010 hotlist with a 103% increase last year. On paper, it was one of the lower risk stocks and not expected to lead the higher risk stocks, Sometimes the tortoise looks unattractive against the hare – but it’s the one which crosses the line first for you that matters. Good luck.

      1. Thanks, Hub, for your comments. I try not to chase growth, and have been invested in XEL for many months – so I’ll say there as there are not too many great ISA stocks. You know, last night I saw a post on one of my BB;s saying “quick invest in DAV tomorrow; it’s gonna fly”, and I ignored it as it is a very small cap, and I thought it was one of those that you would have trouble selling out of . Can you imagine my face when I saw it up 43% at one point today? when I had looked into it to some extent? LOL! I’ll probably stay put in the stocks I’m in for a while, but your Hotlist is doing well. You haven’t comment on why AAZ is doing badly.

        1. investor2010,

          AAZ isn’t doing badly. It started the year off at 70p and jumped up to test 86p based on a cracking update. Prior to that it had risen from a 40p position in Dec. So it has come along way and gold has eased off a bit. I think it got ahead of itself a bit and profit takers decided to take some cash out. Director sales didn’t help. But the biz is the same and it’s around 66p now which is only 7% down from 2011 opening. Gold hasn’t had a decent run this year and there’s plenty of time yet. Early days. It’s not where the stock is now that counts – it’s where it finishes 2011 in terms of the Hotlist.

  8. Hi Hub, great website you have here. I’m pretty new in stocks n shares so it would b a great help if you can give me sum advice in what i should look for in a company before considering buying into them. There seems to b a lot of info to digest before making a move. Hope you can help. thx.

  9. Hi Hub! Great website and great picks! What are your views on Edenville Energy?

    Thanks!

  10. Somebody sent me this list by email.
    This is a good piece of research.

    Cheers
    Mike

  11. Quite a beautiful website. I built mine and i was looking for some ideas and your website gave me some. The website was developed by you?

    Thank you

  12. BHR – Good pick for the Hotlist Hub

    With Coking Coke in demand this is my tip out of the Hotlist to finish top come the end of 2011…..long way to go, but the wind is in the sails

    Dice

  13. Also what offer do you expect the placing to be for us shareholders? 3 to 1?

  14. Hello hub, wondering if you could help me with max petroleum?

    Firstly was expecting to be near 30s by now, then with additional news on increased existing wells and an update on the 2 jurasic extras to UTS we would see 40p ready for a placing.

    Anyway my question is how do you see the placing playing out? We know there has to be one before the 31st march, and in my brief experience I have nearly always found that the share price falls down to the placing price within a week or so, thus making taking up the placing pointless.
    Obviously i want to avoid dilation were possible, but I have no more money to invest so my options are

    Do nothing take the dilution
    Sell half on placing news to use to buy more at the placing price
    Sell all on placing news and hope it goes down to the placing price and buy more shares than before

    Which option would you use? Or is their a method I have missed?

    1. Dave,

      I appreciate your concerns and I’ll do my best to help. Firstly, if they do a fund raiser, I don’t think it will be an OO or rights issue. Therefore, normal pi’s will not be tapped for money and will ultimately be diluted. Rights issues are expensive and thus I see mxp doing a ‘placing’.

      There are also a number of finance partners already involved due to the syndicate process used by Macquarie on the last debt swap. Any dilution needs to be carefully managed over all due to bondholders options at 35p.

      I think they’ll go for a placing deal with Macquarie but will wait until after the next two wells. They’d be foolish to agree a placing deal now. But remember, II’s are always more willing to take a cheaper placing price and especially if it is ahead of some decent drills whereby they are derisked and in for free etc. MXP have a window of opportunity coming up and if they succeed with the two drills, then I see any dilution via a placing as being ‘reduced’ or offset by better news.

      I think if you feel a bit nervy – then you should take which ever option reduces your risk and makes you feel more comfortable. The key is to balance your risk and reward expectations.

  15. Hi Hub,

    thanks for all yuor great work and the new website. Fantastic. Very refreshing. Any thoughts on PMG now it has come down to 17p? Would this be enough to look at entry for you? Would really appreciate yuor thoughts….

    Thanks

    1. Hi Darren,

      As noted on here, I did sell gradually into the rise from 18p to 37p. I would consider a re-entry but not based on the sp level – more based on what Mr Cross’s strategy and plan is. I want to wait and see what he has to say. There’s a small possibility that the sp rose to test 38p purely to enable a better share placing price on PMG to reflect whatever plan / assets Cross has in mind to develop. The same happened with SOLG. Check out the SOLG chart. On a side note – if investors are Cross fans and have no worries about his ability to deliver, then 17p ranges certainly look better value against previous 30p ranges.
      I think the market wants to see how much dilution (if any) and what assets are involved before getting stuck in. I’m sitting on the sidelines at the moment as 17p still looks pricey based on no news thus far.

      1. Thanks for taking the time to reply with your thoughts HUB. Happy Trading!

  16. Great site Hub – superb effort: intelligent, reasoned and research focused… and my new home following the farce the LSE and iii boards are fast becoming.

    Back to business: I echo the sentiments of many of the XEL fans who have left comments – suprised (especially given risk v reward), so no need to repeat. My biggest holding by far.

    Others hold, I’m a bit more ashamed of because, as revealed by your hotlist, there are better companies out there – but holding EO and VOG – given some of the crackers on this list, I’ll be selling VOG as soon as they get their licence!

    Lastly, off topic I know but, my three year “trend tip” is Palm Oil (still Oil?!). It’s in a vast and growing array of super market products – soaring demand, constricted supply (ethical backlash re: South East Asian rainforests and time to production). Currenly holding PAL – an ethical West African producer with vast landbanks and a mill that came on line in Jan….SP performing very well.

    Enough already – starting to sound like rampers on the iii board…

    Wishing you all a wealthy New Year!

    1. thxs yomi,
      The sites only been running for a couple of weeks so early days but I hope in time we’ll get plenty of posters offering there views without the usual disruptions from the types out to cause trouble. It’s quiet, free from clutter and a place to exchange quality thoughts/research.

      Not aware of palm oil so will have a little look at them.

      1. Sorry to clarily – palm oil as in the agricultural product – it’s not an E&P company.

        Grossly off topic! I’ll stick to E&P.

        Thanks.

  17. hello Hub, after out chat about Max Petroleum, just seen on another board that the sun newspaper have said Max are due to reveal all on a oil discovery.

    Max off to a flyer for 2011, must be the best one on the hotlist so far

    janet will be happy

  18. Looking fantastic for max petroleum, 25% up today, has something leaked about the oil discovery? Let’s hope it’s this years rockhopper

  19. HUB – I’m suprised you don’t have SQZ in the list considering it maybe selling some of it’s assets – review due in Q1

    I think I recalling you sayign this could double. Any thoughts?

    1. The jury’s out on SQZ – I’m keen to see the results of their strategic plan and planned SEA sale before being more bullish. I’ll do a heads up on SQZ if/when they report to the market. At 42p range they are very cheap against some peers.

  20. Im surprised that XEL is not in your top ten Hub now we have a successful flow test completed, any particular reason why? many thanks in advance as always, Jim.

    1. Hi Bigjim,

      XEL has been included in the ‘B’ list. It had a terrific 2010 and at near £4, I think it’s fairly priced ‘until’ they confirm the reserve upgrades and also the ESP schedule/plans. I also think the current SEDA arrangement tends to dictate the stocks trading patterns near term until the news flow comes in again. Many investors will be aware of how ‘weighty’ SEDA’s can be on stocks during quiet times. Looking longer term – XEL will need funding. Look at GKP, RKH, BLVN etc, all have had major discoveries and all have had to do placings to raise cash to fund the future ops – it’s a simple reality that should not be ignored. GKP combined the use of a SEDA with placing funding and it worked ok, although it took its toll in no news periods.
      It was tough taking around 50 prime shares/stocks and reducing them down to just 10. Hence why I went for the ‘subs bench’ or ‘B’ list to ensure there was a decent choice and options for investors.
      I will review XEL’s progress and as suggested before – they could/should appear as a ‘Heads Up’ at some point this year. It might be worth noting that last year, XEL was not on the 2010 Hotlist but was added as a Heads Up in April 2010 at 40p.

  21. I would definitely add HAWK to this list for the following reasons:

    – $7million cash in the bank and no debt (so we are not at the mercy of banks)

    – longer term equity financing agreed – £25 million for the next 3 years

    – massive increase in revenues – 332%

    – vast acerage – 246,00 acres (that is HUGE)

    – shale is in demand (look at the 4.7 Billion $$$ Shell deal this year – http://moneymorning.com/2010/05/31/shale-gas/)

    – it’s onshore so politically good and in the USA which is pro-oil industry and politically stable

    – change of Directors so new impetus and will hopefully build positive sentiment

    – There was significant interest from several multinationals. Even if they dont bite now, the interest alone shows that HAWK have something good

    – excellent reports by Schlumberger of oil in place – http://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/18546/schlumberger-report-finds-shales-present-under-most-of-nighthawks-jolly-ranch-acreage-18546.html

    – brilliant analysysts estimates (several different ones) for massive upside potential. Analysts forecasts are 34p by Andrew Shepherd-Barron, KBC Peel Hunt. 42p from Gus Hochschild, Mirabaud Securities. Also 46p Jtarget set June 2010 from http://www.madisonwilliams.com/Research/OTCQX/Nighthawk_Energy_February_15_2010.pdf

    – Westhouse went crazy and said 101p – http://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/6154/hanson-westhouse-remains-bullish-on-nighthawk-energys-us-interests-6154.html

    at the height of the recession, the March 2009 low was 30p – when there was widespread market fear and we are well below even that valuation

    – HAWK is massively undervalued compared to NAV

    – In April 2010 the Directors themselves bought 300,000 shares at around 24p each so they were confident then

    – Funding now in place

    The current price of just under 10p is a definite great entry price in my view for the above reasons.

    Cheers, Star

  22. Thanks, Hub, I’ve also felt that DPL (Dominion Petroleum) will do very well with the exciting prospects at Block 7, and AEY (Antrim Energy) but I’m a definite commodities geek this year as was proved last year with an overall 300% increase in our combined SIPPs in 2010.
    Your helpful posts on the various BBs are invaluable and appreciated in all its risk attitudes.

  23. guys,
    Be careful about BOWLEVEN. Cameroon is more corrupt then Nigeria.

  24. Hi Hub, Excellent site, great work. What are your thoughts on allied gold? Thanks

  25. HUB,

    Thnx for your research and hard work. In My Opinion, CHAR (Chariot Oil) can also be included in Hotlist 2011. It has yet to commence drill in Nambia region and its Share price has rose from under 25p to 188p in 2010. IMHO, It has great potential. First well is scheduled to be drilled in late 2011 and on successful drilll result from first Well, it will de-risk whole prospect. Chariot Oil own 100% Working Interest.
    I am looking for Share Price 600p+ by end of 2011 (on successful drill result). Pre-drill Target Price can be in region of 300p.

  26. Glad to see CAZA on the list, and I can see why – its like a coiled spring right now, since the placing. Gunna rocket to 60+ soon again. The overhang is almost gone.

    1. Yes, well observed – I agree on the overhang being almost cleared. It’s one of the key things I look for. Most stocks of this nature tend to trade down to sideways for a while after the placing loose ends get sorted out and any stock cleared. The similarities between XEL, IAE and CAZA are clear for all the sharp investors to see. All of them are dual listed and Isable. All of them had split placings (or shared) with TSX ventures index in canada. This index is notorious for having quite a few syndicate brokers and thus you tend to get some book trading and fun and games prior and after the placing is sorted.

      The placing at 40p on XEL was the main ‘flag’ that prompted me to look into them further. IAE holders will also be aware of the their placing done at 107p. There was a bit of syndicate washing going on there for a few weeks and when it was all dusted – the stock zipped back up to test 150p+.

      Investors should go back and look at the trading patterns on XEL in April/May 2010 and with IAE in June/July 2010. Then cross match the charts with CAZA and observe the similar shares in issue (particularly with XEL) and you’ll get a feel on how CAZA might move in the coming weeks and months.

      There’s plenty of homework there for the keen investor! Fingers crossed CAZA has a similar path to success as XEL!

      1. Coiled spring indeed! Up over 10% the following day lol

        More to follow in the coming days chaps. CAZA was already wallowing at the bottom of it’s Bollingers, and is still far away from over-bought territory. Still sub-50 RSI too, and MACD crossing over.

  27. Hub,

    Thank-you for taking the time to create a well thought-out documented 2011 Hotlist.

    I really like the focus on AIM small cap shares, this is where private investors can create signficant wealth, and you’ve explained sound arguments for investment.

    I had PMG on my list – but can see why it didn’t make your list, that said I thought BMR would make the list, there is a potential for 5 bagger within the next few months.

    Still we can all argue day about this share or that share – I would rather focus on highlighting that investors should embrace this community, the wealth of knowledge and understanding is high, money will be made from your 2011 Hotlist

    Good luck for 2011

    DiceMan

  28. Anyone fancy giving an opinion on BEM. Worth a buy?

    Merci in advance

  29. Hub,

    Excellent work on firstly producing this clean, easy to read website and secondly the hours you have clearly put in researching these stocks and sharing with us! I was a little surprised to see Sirius Minerals (SXX.L) omitted from your A or B list, as I feel 2011 will be a massive breakthrough year for them, with Chris Catlow at the helm wanting to progress quickly and “Break down barriers”, as he did at Fortescue Metals Group. It was however nice to see several of my other constituents of my portfolio featuring in your list and several other stocks on watch-list in amongst your list.

    Best of luck for 2011 Hub and thanks again.

    Kind regards,

    Jazzy

  30. Hi Hub,

    I think your website is excellent and I’m thankful for your insight. I wanted to ask your opinion on Solomon Gold?

    Thanks,

    1. Solomon are ok – big rerating last year and a decent sized placing to boot. I did hold Solomon stock for a while but decided to move out and enter a few gold players to spread risk. There are quite a few good Gold mining companies out there and with gold prices expected to rise in 2011 – it could be another interesting year for these players. I recall one analyst citing Gold could rise to above $1600. I’ll try and locate the article.

  31. Useful thoughts. Thanks hub. I value your comments, but cannot yet claim to be a follower, as such. I do agree about the commodities sector and personally still have great faith in Afren and Soco. The latter in particular seems to be under the radar but still expect production this year to rocket to 55,000 bopd! I reaaly beleiev all this banter between like minded individuals is probably worth more than all the chargeable subscriptions that are flying around. With those, the following is so vast the price automatically rises following a recommendation, but here we all need to consider the options versus our own investing objectives, so thanks very much for the forum!

  32. Hello all, just wondering how much each of you have invested on shares
    And how many shares is this amount split across percentage wise?
    What is the average amount you put in any one share?

    Here is mine –

    Total of 40k in shares
    Currently in 4 shares
    Split is 25k in max petroleum, 10k in xel, 2.5k in vog, 2.5k in RRL

    1. Dave, it depends on your risk appetite and your growth expectations. For instance, you could lose everything on MXP as their business is heavily loaded with debt and they need cash to fund there deep prospects. Very risky stock but of course, if they succeed then the stock will rise very fast indeed based on valuation basis. XEL on the other hand has proven assets which are commercial – this underpins the sp a great deal for now and hence the downside is limited. If they progress well this year, then there’s more growth in the stock to come. It’s less risky than MXP and could deliver a decent growth for you.

      Investing is not about making a quick buck on the high risk stocks – it’s about managing risk vs reward. Invest only what you can afford to lose. Never over stretch yourself.

  33. Nice site Sir
    Good to see you have done a nice clean uncluttered site, looks nice, keep it simple, I hope you get some good feedback from it, your comments are obviously well respected by many on the iii boards

  34. Great work again HUB.. What are your thoughts on CHAR.. has already 10 bagged for me but i’m holding on as there is still massive upside.Should have news on farm-ins soon.
    Namibia is the next hot area for oil/gas discovery, IMHO.

    1. Enegi oil could be massive ……Just had this last week of a great tipster

  35. Thanks Hub, I agree with your decision to stick with oilies and minerals/coms for the next year, only slightly dissapoimnted to see you never mention baobab resources BAO which has done well recently and i dipped into in and out and back again, ( that one is to play with rather than just hold, got to have some fun making a fool of myself )

    Anyway, thanks for your help and sharing your opinions, I follow the XEL board mostly and know you from there as I have 35K shares in xcite, this represents 70% of my portfolio, (been in them at an average cost of 104 ) at present so I hope to diversify more if they get towards £5 soon.

    I would be interested to know what you would do in my position as I doubt you would do the same so I would find it interesting to know what your thoughts would be and compare with my own plans. My monica on the BB is nertamean and anything you suggest will be taken as a friendly bit of an opinion, not advice, ( just in case you are reluctant because of legals) you are hereby absolved and indemnified by me as to any consequences if I was to follow any of your opinions or not.

    Thanks for your inciteful posts.
    Regards

    Dave

  36. Hi Hub,

    Before I post my criticisms I have to state that I’m a fan. I made good money on some of your tips (GKP, XEL). I really hope your 2011 hotlist performs better than the 2010 list as I’m invested in 4 of the stocks. 26% gain in 2010 compared to the FTSE100 sounds great but none of these stocks are FTSE constituents and the comparison is not fair. You should compare your tips to indices like the AIM 100 which was 42% up in 2010, so the performance of your 2010 list should be judged as poor. I’m sure your personal portfolio did perform much better than your 2010 tips as mine was up by 93% in 2010 beating the AIM 100 index (including a total loss of £5000 invested in ROK).

    So to come to the point I think the 2011 list is O.K. but is taking a middle of the road route with some speculative and some safe bets. I think some of your target prices are way too high (GKP, HER, BHR).

    Like the poster Perana I’m taking up the challenge and posting my alternative list, which I’m hoping will beat your list at end of 2011. My approach is to be totally aggressive with stocks that have the potential to be at least 3-baggers. My aim is a gain of at least 90% but in any case to beat the AIM 100 index. I’m not publishing target prices for each stock as the list is very high risk and the final outcome can only be judged as a portfolio of all the stocks as a package. Some can easily be total write offs.

    Needless to say, the list below is by no means a recommendation to invest in these stocks. I’m personally invested in 8 of the 10 stocks.

    Alternative list to hub:
    AMC
    BPC
    BZT
    FML
    HAIK
    LGO
    PAL
    RRL
    SGO
    SXX

    I wish all investors great returns in 2011.

  37. Great list Hub and pleased to see im already invested in pretty much all your oil & gas compaines.

    Nice to see RKH mentioned as I know your not a FI fan but you obviously cant ignore their potential.

    Slightly suprised no mention of SLE, have you any thoughts on them? Just done a £56m placing for an exciting 2011 drilling campaign.

    Would also like to know what you think a decent entry price would be for PMG!

    Fingers crossed for a great 2011 for all.

    Z

  38. Hope The list is not in order I am in max petroleu
    Quite heavy, hoping it will be 2011s rockhopper

  39. Thanks for the work on this Hub. Im sure many of us will follow your advice, as well as doing our own research as well.

    Personally Id hoped you’d have spread across a couple more sectors, to avoid the ‘all eggs in one basket’ scenario Im trying to avoid.

    Also just wondered if the 10 were actually in order ? eg number 1 is your ‘best’ tip ?

    1. The list is alphabetical. I agree on your ‘eggs in one basket’ comment but felt that any downturn or double dip would effect most sectors. My view is that if 2011 delivers what the global economies have all worked hard towards then commodities will benefit most. Small caps being the most likely to show enthusiasm and sentiment early on. Specific company business performance becomes key thereafter to sustain the progress/ enthusiasm.

  40. Great site and 2011 list

    I will be looking at a few of your tips over the next week.

    I would like to say you could be correct regarding: ( my targets )

    1. Her (30p+ 2 year target)
    2. BHR (I am looking at 35p)
    3. Caza (I am looking at 151p)

    Keep up the good work

    1. i cant believe you have not looked at kefi .. do you only hold oilers ? .

      what about the potential with WBN .. or dont you hold them yet ?

  41. Hi Hub
    Thanks for another great list.
    Some exact matches with my list, AAZ, BVLN, IAE some I am very familiar with, GKP, CAZA, NPE, MXP, FDI and some new to me BHR, HER. Will be seriously researching the new ones prior to markets opening on Tuesday.
    Cheers for all your work and wishing you a properous New Year.
    Bard

  42. Hub – good list!

    Sold a few off that list at Xmas, due to ‘euphoria’ or whatever.
    Nice to see Nyota, albeit on ‘b’ list, this one may have fantastic potential once the drills extend the ore-body.

    Will research out some of the others. Many thanks, looking forward to New Years trading.

    Joe

  43. Hub,

    I’ve long been a follower of your posts on iii and although I too dont post on there I have a great respect of your postings and helpful advice. It’s no surprise to me to see that Im already invested in many of your 10 chosen companies above, however, i am surprised that Xcite didnt hit your final 10 for many reasons. First of all it has been significantly derisked since it’s successful flow test. It has so much good news in the pipeline – including a reserve upgrade, possible takeover, further fields to drill….a very secure share now with so much upside. OK – so a share dilution may be on the cards but as you well know with GKP, the shareprice may well increase with a dilution as it would allow the company to move forwards and begin produciton. I know you were invested in Xcite from the early days, are you still invested? I accept you dont have a crystal ball and I guess Xcite must have been close to your final 10. I, for one, certainly feel Xcite will double in value over the next year – we will see. Thankyou for your informative posts, Im a wealthier man because of you! – have a great 2011. Matt

    1. Matt, firstly I do have a crystal ball and it would give Paul the octopus a good run for his money (god bless his sole) and yes that was miss spelt! I also have itchy palms which I use with a number of other indicators. I don’t jest! Seriously, I know a few investors that rely on ‘feel and ‘gut instinct’ – it just takes a bit of time to manage and understand.

      In terms of XEL. I can see there are a number of investors that are disappointed that XEL was not on the list. Well, if you go back to 2010 – it wasn’t on there either. It was given as a ‘Heads Up’ at 40p and I can tell you this… I shouted from the roof tops and was anyone listening – not many. The iii BB had about 10 posts a day of which most were grumbling about the stagnant sp. The rest is history and XEL’s success is down to their managements ability to pull together an expert team or Bentley alliance as they are called – and to raise cash with minimal dilution where possible. It’s a great company and a great success story. There’s more to come once they get the ESP moving. So don’t worry if it’s not on the 2011 Hotlist. I’m sure it will feature from whence it came – via the ‘Heads Up’ alerts. As I clearly stated in the intro ahead of the Hotlist top ten… it could be more fruitful to follow the ‘Heads Up’ than the Hotlist. The ‘Heads Up’ alerts are more relevant to the time/market circumstance. The Hotlist is set in stone from Jan 2nd 2011. Each year, all the pundits like share mag, IC, the newspapers etc issue their top ten – it’s a benchmark system which works well.

      Let us see what 2011 brings – I’m sure XEL will feature strongly.

  44. Hi Hub and friendly investors

    Happy New Year and happy Chinese New Year on 3rd Feb. 2011, year of the rabbit, firstly just want to say this is a great site; your picks are exciting bunch, definitely not for the faint hearted.

    in brief may I ask your valuable views on AUL.

    I think there are few I am not familiar with on your hot pick namely AAZ and HER but will do some bed time reading.

    MANY THANKS

    I am in DPL, AUL, XEL may have add a few from the hot list depend on entry sp.

    Also take this moment to wish everyone on this forum a very good luck and best return on their investment. No banana skin I hope.

  45. IMO. GKP have set the 20″ casing and have nippled up the 21 1/4″ B.O.P on the SH-2 well.

    1. Archie,

      I believe in the phrase ‘putting your money where your mouth is’!
      With so many stocks out there with excellent upside potential – it’s hard not to resist/hold them.

  46. Vast Exploration should be finished drilling sometime this month as per last RNS. Should be a nice short term multibagger as they have already drilled through a nice pay zone that was not part of the main target.

    1. I’ve left the direct TSX players off as wanted to concentrate on LSE/AIM listed stocks as per previous year.

      I like VAST and also SNM. It’s a shame that VST and SNM haven’t elected for a dual AIM listing as I think they would do very well indeed over here in UK.

  47. My best pick for 2011. Buy Leni Oil and Gas..C.M.P- 3p ,,Three year target £3. low risk. Atlist invest £1000. it gives you £100000.

  48. Hi Hub…interesting list.

    May I make a suggestion?

    I think the list would be greatly enhanced if you include the Mkt Cap of the shares as well as the price, after all the sp on it’s own means “nothing”.

    Cheers,

    RH

    1. I would hope that investors do their own research ‘in depth’ and details like market cap, charts etc are all readily available from sites like iii.co.uk.

      Market cap and investor information is also readily available via the specific company website links created next to each company featured on the Hotlist.

  49. Really over the moon..that you recommend HERENCIA RESOURCES, my favoufite share, fast coming to the notice of the City and investors alike.
    HER, presentation:-http://clients.westminster-digital.co.uk/minesite/microsite/events/73/pdf/Herencia.pdf

  50. Hi Hub,

    Very interesting analysis & recommendations and your 2010 Hotlist performed very well. I will certainly review & research some of your recommendations further.

    As a side note, I noticed that Max Petroleum has links with another Kazak explorer; Roxi Petroleum (RXP). Have you any thoughts on RXP?

    In addition, do you have any thoughts on Petroneft (PTR)? After having delivered 250% growth in 2010, do you think they have much further to go?

    TIA

  51. Hi Hub,

    Happy 2011 to you and many thanks for all the time and effort you have put into compiling this list for us mere mortals, it is very much appreciated and your kind heartedness knows no bounds.

    I’m quite surprised not to see SXX on your list. Being the only Potash mining company listed in London, I think SXX are in for a very good year. With the seventh billion person to be born during the course of this year, attention will no doubt focus upon agriculture and feeding the world. I feel SXX will benefit from this debate with potash being a key component of agricultural fertiliser. They also have also recently dug their first exploration drill in North Dakota, the results of which will be released in the next few weeks.

    Wishing you a very prosperous New Year and thank you so much for sharing your wisdom with us all. Fantastic website too.

    Best wishes,

    Zizou

  52. Happy New Year Hub 🙂

    Again an interesting list and like many others glad to see a few of my own currently held stocks on there (Gkp, Caza, RRL, Hoil, etc). Can I dare suggest another commodity pick worth watching – RRR, which was I think the very first share I bought about ten years ago at 3p. I’d only put £300 into it and over the years my average share invest amount increased quite a lot. I kind of ignored Rrr, never bothered selling or anything given the small amount it was worth, but was quite pleased to see it finally make some headway in late 2010, and has since become a five-bagger for me, Lol!
    Many thanks,
    John

  53. HUB

    Would you mind if I ask what your general strategy is with regard to your ‘Target Price’ for each of the selected stocks? For example, if your target price for a particular stock is reached within, lets say, a couple of months after the start of the year, will you then sell the stock to bank the targeted profit, or will you let it ride to the end of the year?

    Sorry if this is a stupid question.

    BB

    1. Hi Brendan,

      It’s important to review each stocks progress regularly and also monitor the general markets. Sentiment can play a much bigger part in a stock Market bull run and thus target prices may be exceeded. They are precisely that – targets … And should be managed based on your own investment strategy.

  54. Very surprised to see no copper producers/explorers in the list given the forecast deficit production and Bullish outlook for copper prices this year.

    A few very near term producers will make a lot of headway this year:
    FML
    WTI
    CAML
    DME

  55. Hi HUB, have you set any target prices for the alternative selections ?

  56. Thanks for the list HUB, good to see some shares i already own on your list , another share to add to the North Sea portfolio is Antrim Energy (AEY) .
    One of my faves that never gets much attention is (PTR) Petroneft Resources.
    GLA.

  57. Some interesting and potentially brave picks as some have already had pretty big rises in 2010. I think you have missed a couple that I am feeling good about – and that I know you are invested in. so for good measure here is my top 10 for 2011 with their respective current SP, I challenge you and look forward to the results! I have tried to match stocks as potentially alternative picks.

    1. AGLD producing and set for huge growth when new mine comes on stream. Current SP 43.5p
    2. ECR 2011 should be the year to realise the value of their resource Current SP 1.95p
    3. VPP undervalued North Sea producer with excellent prospects Current SP 509.5p
    4. FDI agreed
    5. GKP agreed
    6. HMB now in production (gold) and looking to increase. Current SP 7.5p
    7. FTE discovery of Rare Earth Elements at Firawa is going to fire interest, currently undergoing JORC, worth more than their Uranium. Current SP 10.75p
    8. IAE agreed
    9. DPL excellent prospects current SP 5.8p
    10. SLG on TSX prospects coming to reality including the Cladhan discovery in North Sea which they are the operator and major have the major slice. current SP CAD$3.45

    And the banker, maybe not set to double in 2011 but a solid investment that will mature into a £5 share in time is AFR at 147.7p (have to get a word in for it as it is my largest holding).

  58. firestone and max are the flyers in 2011,well picked HUB. ps. can you also get Wolves to stay in the premiership thanks

  59. Hey Hub,

    If you don’t mind me asking, what do you think of GBP (Global Petroleum)?

    They’ve got a market cap of £14m, which is the same as their current cash balance. Directors own 30% of the company so a strong vote of confidence there.

    They’ve been a junior partner in a few drillings in America. They only have a 6.5% interest in those wells, but there’s been enough successes to make the company cash positive (albeit on a P/E ratio of 15.8).

    I’d have thought with that load of cash, they’d get involved in another project at some point. Could be one to buy and hold for a while as interest is low right now as there’s more ‘exciting’ plays going on, but of course, those who make the most money when the crowd pile in are those who bought in previously.

    They can also go in an ISA (duel listed on the ASX).

  60. Thanks for the tips, I am in bhr and they have been tipped in the sunday mail today. Watch it fly on Tuesday. My personal target is 50p by the end of the year. Also in Amc and bzt. Both have huge potential. Good luck all

  61. Hi Hub,

    I read your posts about PPC on the PPC bb and thought it may be on your 2011 hot list. Did you consider PCC as a contender as they are drilling in the US at moment and waiting for results followed by drilling in Australia. Your reply will be appreciated as I am invested in PPC and hoping for a good 2011. Anyway you picks look quite good especially GKP good luck with them.

    1. I like PPC – K3 drill results due soon. Plenty of time to issue ‘Heads Up’ on many stocks not listed which come into the eye or ‘action’ as events develop.

      There were more ‘Heads Up’s’ last year than ten stocks – so it tends to be the more immediate and reactive platform for creating awareness throughout the year.

  62. Graham

    I’m also in DPL. I don’t wish to usurp Hub here, but it’s the Tanzania drills (in 2012) that are DPL’s company maker, although of course success in Uganda in Q4 2011 would be significant.

    Best

    Ifoy

    1. Ifoy,

      Thanks for comments and great to see another DPL holder here. Im herefor the long haul so 2011 or 2012 is fine by me 🙂

      Graham

      1. I am in DPL as well. I entered there after HUB’s Recommandation. I know he knows this company will bring success. But he was confused of too many choices.
        Ta,
        MSB

  63. Where is the B list? can’t see Xcite on alternative picks?

    Did Mariana also make B list?

    Cheers

    FTP

    1. Fowler,

      Alternative picks are at the end of each top ten stock. I did have XEL down as a sub for NPE but at the last minute opted for EO. as they are clearly more similar. That said, to minimalise risk, XEL might be the better alternative.

  64. Thanks – a very useful and insightful forum. A couple to mention that might be worth a look and I am sure most will be aware of are u.s oil and gas (usop) (listed on plus)… High risk high reward. Matd. Pdx, which although not a commodity play has huge potential. I think BLVN will prove to be a fantastic pick and I am looking forward to the rns about the cretacious being soon.

  65. Thanks for the list HUB. Your following is international in scale (I’m a very happy xcite shareholder purchasing it on the TSX – haven’t sold any). Any chance you could identify the exchanges theses shares trade on? I’m limited to the north american markets and would like to know which ones are inter-listed. Thanks again and have a great year.

  66. Hub, great site! I’m quite heavily into BMR at the moment and have failed on several occasions to take profits as didn’t want to miss the acquisiton news. What’s your view of BMR as I’m surprised there is no mention here given the fact that the assets are pretty well known.

  67. Very interesting List Hub,

    Many thanks for it, ive a lot to mull over, although saying that there are 3 im into and another 2 im researching and waiting for the entry point you speak of in your descriptive notes.

    My only thought is that DPL (which i am overweight on) is not in your Hotlist. I was somewhat surpised. Good fundamentals, BOD etc etc. Block 7 alone could ‘well’ be a company maker, but their lake activities are ongoing and regardless of the recent duster offer HUGE (with risk) potential.

    I myself rate this a 8/10 bagger for 2011 if all goes to plan? your thoughts are greatly appreciated?

    GT

  68. Hi Hub,

    Some great picks in there and really like the alternative option. As you said things are organic and through the year will change with Head’s Up along the way.

    Have a great year and 1 quick question?

    H = Heads
    u = Up
    b = ??

    Cheers GnH

  69. HAPPY NEW YEAR HUB

    I’ve been a follower of yours for a few months now and made a few quid thanks to you. I just wanted to say a big thank you and thanks for sharing your list for 2011.

  70. Thanks Hub for the new hotlist. Good to see IAE still in there and looking strong. Last years #3 AST still has got much upside imho ( they are right in the middle of a drill as we speak )
    Heres to a healthy and wealthy 2011.
    Cheers Dawlish888

    1. Yes – agree AST are looking strong.

      Just because a new hotlist comes out in 2011 doesn’t mean that the 2010 hotlist becomes redundant!!

      Investors should keep an eye on the 2010 list as many stocks didn’t quite reach their desired or expected levels due to delays and dusters etc. Most will have another pop at their drills/assets, hence 2011 could be the year that the old 2010 list strikes it big! It will be interesting to monitor the progress against the 2010 performance.

  71. I was under the impression that you didn’t rate Falkland Island oilies very highly. Hence I was surprised to see RKH on your B list. This makes me wonder whether the B list is simply something to which to compare the A list or do you really believe that shares on the B list stand a better chance than other shares not mentioned at all.

    1. I’m not a big fan of the Fi’s as I feel they are light years away from reaching production based on the required infrastructure etc. However, RKH have an interesting year ahead and I think if they can prove to the market that Sealion and other assets are as good as everyone thinks, then there’s no reason why RKH cannot see a 50%+ rise. I thought they were a good alternative to BVLN as each have decent discoveries under their belts and plenty of upside to follow. The B list could outperform the A list this year – which would be ironic. It adds a little bit extra this year in terms of interest/ added spice.

  72. Glad to see I am already in 50% of these, but probably due to your recommendations throughout 2010. Would be interested in your views of Tom Cross’s new outfit Parkmead. Obviously they have inflated rapidly last year, but with TCs track record, finance should be easy to obtain and he should be able to attract the key players away from Dana in a similar way to Bowleven/Cairn.

    Happy New year and good luck!!

    1. yes – I was tempted to include PMG but unfortunately they decided to go on a pre 2011 spurt that saw the sp rise from 1p to 39p in 2010. Incredible is not the word! Hence, I think it’s now time for Mr Cross to nail his colours to the mast. PMG will no doubt feature in future ‘Heads Up’ as the story unfolds.

  73. Happy New Year Hub. Good to see your long awaited list. I too was quite suprised not to see Xcite. I am however suprised to see there are alot of high risk players in there. Still its good to see a couple of my personel picks be included in your list. The only one I was not fully up to speed on was AAZ so will look into that.
    Just like to say well done on the website I am sure it will help many many investors over time!! Keep it up and I am sure you will quantify for LEGEND status in many peoples books soon if not already!

  74. Thanks Hub. Out of curiosity, what is your present percentage investment in the above?

  75. Hello Hub, I see Max Petroleum made the list after out discussion yesterday on the subject.

    In your notes, you state that should they get to the deeper drills without too many problems the upside is staggering, out of curiosity ball park, what do you rekon the max share price is capable of if the deeps drills do the business? or is your 55p target including deep drills?

    all the best

  76. XEL has ‘potential’ to double, yet some of the others on the list with political and cash risks are guaranteed to double??

    1. no such thing as ‘guaranteed’ James.

      It’s tough squeezing so many great stocks into just 10 – hence why there is a B list. There will be plenty of heads up this year I am sure – so this is just the start for 2011.

  77. Hub, I’ve been a follower for over a year and have a lot to thank you for including GKP and XEL. If you are ever in Ayrshire then I’d be happy to take you for a game at Royal Troon and/or Irvine GC. May I suggest that you split the tips into those which can and cannot qualify for ISA’s. Best regards and good luck with the tips. My own tips for the year in addition to your own are Amur Minerals (AMC) NON ISA, Frontier Mining (FML) NON ISA and Range Resources (RRL) ISA. Cheers

  78. Happy New Year to you Hub

    Interesting hotlist for 2011. Surprised not to see Xcite on the list even as an alternative pick? Feel it has more upside, but understand your caution given uncertainty of terms of the Bentley Alliance, meteoric rise to date and placement that will showly follow. However, despite the above I’d be very disappointed if it does not double during 2011 and it may well be taken out at a higher premium still.

    As a respester of your research/ advice could you let me know what kept Xcite of the list? Interested if you have a major reservation that I have missed!

    Best wishes

    FTP

    1. Xcite made the ‘B’ list. 2010 was a great year but they have come a long way and 2011 will be largely about the ESP.
      I think Xcite could double but there’s a long way to go and they’ll likely make more progress in 2012. A takeover approach could be the area of interest for investors to watch out for. Xcite certainly has the potential to double in 2011.

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