2013 Hotlist Results – Week 50

Week 50 of 2013

Not a great week for the markets and commodities in particular. US markets wobbled on fears of QE3 taper kicking in as soon as next weeks FED meeting. Ironically – it was the politicians that got a debt deal agreed which unsettled the market. Once the thorn in the markets side – the politicians seem all organised and on top of things. Perhaps that’s because they’ve had some reassurances from the FED that action on printing free money is going to be reduced? That’s just a hunch mind you.

The Dow closed the week down 265 points at 15755. The FTSE closed the week on 6440 down 112pts.

A virtual portfolio has been set up using the 2012 final trading day close figures as a starting point and £1000 has been invested in each stock. This does not include buying fees or stamp duty and is purely intended to be used as a benchmark or summary for each week. One newspaper top ten picks for 2013 has been included to help monitor/compare against. A pi ‘polled’ top picks list (from LSE bulletin boards) has been included this year.

Week 50 stock picks summary:

Another poor weak for commodities with stocks like Kazakhmys once over £12 (feb 2012) trading at sub 200p. The last time it was this low – the world was nigh and it was Jan/Feb 2009. Astonishing to see stocks getting hammered on a weekly basis. Tullow is another. The stock is test 800p after being 1600p in April 2012! And these are (or were) FTSE100 members.

Good news for GKP holders as the CourtCase concludes with a clean sweep win and no appeal in sight. Shareholders and the company can get back to business now and attention will move to 2014. What’s the operational plan? How many wells are going to be drilled and when is the next development well due to spud etc etc. The hurdles ahead on FDP are large and it’s very rare that a small company the size of GKP sees through a prospect like Shaikan all by themselves. Investors will be keen to know how exports / production is doing and where they are with the ftse plans. With Funding in place for another 6 months, questions will soon arise again on how they are going to fund the second half of 2014.

One stock to watch in the last two weeks of Dec is Serica. It has a high impact well due to TD around or before year end and also has a big decision being awaited from BP on whether they will drill a high impact well in Namibia. This is also cited for before year end. Serica recently completed funding at 18p per share.

2 weeks left to year end and with a big fed meeting planned for w/c dec 16th, it could end up being a volatile end if QE3 taper is introduced.

Good performance by the LSE BB polled picks sees the list shoot up to second spot after spending most of the year in 3rd. Nice timing! But will it hold on?

Current standings / Week 50 Results

1. The Independent 2013 +47.19% (Weekly loss of 1.47%)
2. The LSE BB List 2013 +15.69% (Weekly gain of 2.45%)
3. TheShareHub’s 2013 B-List +10.16% (Weekly loss of 5.48%)
4. TheShareHub’s 2013 Hotlist -28.65% (Weekly loss of 2.13%)

Click on Portfolio image to enlargeIndependent week 50 LSE polled picks week 50 sharehub B-list week 50 sharehub hotlist week 50