As 2013 ends and we start a new trading year, the 2013 stock picks final results are in based on Dec 31st Closing prices.
A big hats off to the Independent newspaper picks which has now returned over 50% growth yoy. That’s quite an achievement and leaves most highly paid fund mangers looking red faced. This comes against a very healthy 13.9% gain on the FTSE.
It was clearly a year fuelled by free cash via QE3 US bond buying and BoE stimulus. The market was content to stick with blue chips rather than the usual high risk high return stock plays. Hence commodities had yet another poor year. The discounts to NAV at presnet are lower in many cases than those seen in the dark days of 2009. Quite remarkable considering oil prices are 300% higher today than back then.
Sector rotation may soon be upon us as QE taper begins to kick in and the banks/city players are forced to take more risk on as they seek to generate higher profits.
With interest rate policies across the world seemingly frozen or in hibernation for 12 months+, the markets should have little to fear heading into 2014.
But the inevitable withdrawal of QE (in complete form) is perhaps a one way story, GDP and individual company profits should help guide the markets back to a modicum of fundamental analysis.
The AIM sector is set to see some bolstering in the form of Stamp duty lifted in April (6th) as the government seeks to win over voters ahead of elections.
It may help with volumes in the early part of the year but for many commodity focussed stocks, a turn around in sentiment is what is needed the most. A major discovery or the transformational sort is required across a number of minnows to get that feel good factor back. Add to this some nice chunky M&A/takeover stories and hey presto, AIM / commodities could be back in favour.
With stocks so beaten up and undervalued at present such as BLVN, XEL and GKP as examples; it might only take one big predator/takeover to occur to spark a huge rerating across such stocks.
Until that time arrives – it could be much of the same. Investors will be hoping that 2014 is the year that the minnows bounce back and AIM comes to life.
FINAL standings / Week 52
2. The LSE BB List 2013 +15.83% (Not bad considering these picks are mainly AIM smallcaps)
3. TheShareHub’s 2013 B-List +14.20% (Out-performed FTSE but hit hard by KAZ and IMG)
4. TheShareHub’s 2013 Hotlist -31.72% (Afren shines,but many others failed to deliver)
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