Week 47 of 2014
Chinese rate cuts and more signs of stimulus coming from the ECB saw US Indices leaping to new highs. The Dow closed at 17810 up 175pts on the week and its highest close ever. The FTSE 100 added 97pts to close at 6751 which is still some distance from its all time high. Will it top 7000 before the year is out?
All eyes turn to the main event set for thursday as OPEC meet and decide whether to cut back Oil output and bolster the OIL price. The Saudi’s are up against it as major players like Iraq, Iran and Russian all need oil prices higher. Iran are set to conclude talks on Nuclear program on Monday and if all parties are in agreement, then sanctions could be lifted. On Dec 3rd, Osborne is set to announce the Autumn statement which should include some tax breaks and incentives to get the flagging north sea industry back up and running after one of the worst years for decades on production and of course tax receipts. Then – there’s Dec 8th/9th deadline for Baghdad and Erbil to agree a budget for 2015. If the two can agree a deal, then it could add further pressure to oil prices as more volumes hit the market.
Hence – if you are focused on commodities and especially OIL/GAS, then the next 1 to 2 weeks should prove to be very meaningful. Whenever catalysts like these appear – be prepared for some volatility as the market (Casino) does like an ‘event’.
A virtual portfolio has been set up using the 2013 final trading day close figures as a starting point and £1000 has been invested in each stock. This does not include buying fees or stamp duty and is purely intended to be used as a benchmark or summary for each week. Two newspaper top ten picks for 2014 have been included to help monitor/compare against.
Week 47 stock picks performance review:
The Independent storms back into positive ground after spending the majority of the last 6 months in the red. The Telegraph is not far behind but it’s looking pretty solid from here on for the reigning champions. COme top this year, and that’s 3 years on the trot. Very impressive stuff.
The Hotlist is a commodity heavy pick list and hence is bearing all the scars of a beaten up sector. But after 3 years now of being ‘beaten’ up, perhaps it’s time for a change in direction in 2015. The sector needs some meaningful M&A to help kick re-ratings off and if share prices continue to fall, then surely some larger players are going to find it hard to resist.
Watch out for HUR, SXX, PVR, LOGP and XEL as all head towards news sensitive periods which could involved transformational farm in talks. In SXX’s case, crucial planning approval stages are now heading into the decision in ‘weeks’ rather than months zone.
Current standings / Week 47 Results
1. The Independent’s Top Ten 2014 +2.48% (Weekly gain of 3.08%)
2. The Telegraph’s Top Ten 2014 -2.20% (Weekly gain of 1.43%)
3. TheShareHub’s 2014 B-List -25.96% (Weekly gain of 0.29%)
4. TheShareHub’s 2014 Hotlist -39.69% (Weekly loss of 0.88%)