2016 Hotlist FINAL RESULTS

Happy new year to all sharehub readers! I hope you all had a good break and are feeling refreshed and ready for another stonking year ahead.

2016 proved to be an astonishing year and not only in stock performance but world changing events. The illuminati or ‘those in power’ got a right royal kickin up the derrieres. The year started with a stark warning from many of the ‘casino bankers’. The experts and highly paid analysts/economists at RBS said…

Investors face a “cataclysmic year” where stock markets could fall by up to 20% and oil could slump to $16 a barrel” END. The message was to ‘sell everything’.

11 months later the DOW Jones hit all-time record highs followed by the FTSE100. Well done RBS and co!

Then came the stark warnings ahead of Brexit… The BoE Governor delivered a very sharp warning to all voters. If you vote YES, then you are sending the UK economy into the abyss. George Osborne was not short of warning either. The chancellor predicted a possible 25%+ drop in UK property. These ‘leaders’ and ‘experts’ were of course correct to highlight the risks but none saw it fit to highlight the more positive outcomes. In fact, considering these are the men behind the brains of the UK economy, they couldn’t possibly be wrong could they? Well, they were wrong and spectacularly wrong. So wrong that one has to question their ability and credentials in the first place. Of course, there is a chance that they may have over egged the negative outcomes with the intention to scaremonger and coax british voters into remaining in the UK. But that’s speculative chatter of course.

In summary, from RBS analysts, to hedge fund guru’s like Crispin Odey to Mr Carney, to Mr Osborne and eventually to Clinton and co…. they all took a proper kicking in 2016. It was the year that exposed the ‘brains’ behind business and politics to be little more than ‘guess men’ and ‘chancers’. Lesson’s have been learned and the future will be quite different from here on. 2016 will go down as the true ‘curtain lifter’ on those in power. Clueless, arrogant and disconnected is the best I do without reverting to more colourful language. Just how could they get it so wrong?! And Mr Carney… why are you still running the Bank of England!

Hotlist 2016 Results Summary:

No great surprises in the running order from the last update 2 weeks ago.

The SHAREHUB 2016 Hotlist is crowned the run-away winner with a whopping 123%+ gain. The Independent newspaper picks made a strong come back from 10% down to finish 10.5% up. And in the wooden spoon position, the Daily Mail tips picked by industry ‘experts’ came in with a modest 5% gain against a broader FTSE100 growth rate of 20%.

The SHAREHUB top ten delivered 4 multi-baggers. Some 2 bagged, some 3 bagged and some even 4 bagged. Astonishing performance especially when you account for the total wipe out on XEL.

Whilst 2015 was a poor year it was very much dictated by PoO and Saudi sentiments. It paid well to stick with some poor performers from 2015. But not all stocks looked in shape for recovery. And that’s why it’s healthy to have a clear out and bring in some new blood from time to time. It worked in 2016 and the same applies to 2017. Some of the 2016 picks will feature in 2017 and some will not. All will be revealed later today when the Hotlist picks for 2017 are announced.


2 replies on “2016 Hotlist FINAL RESULTS”

  1. I like your frank comments on Carney and Osbourne. Just out of interest there is an article in the Business section of the Telegraph today (3rd) talking about ‘ British firms show ‘worrying’ lack of drive and knowledge to increase exports. The article originates from comments made by the Institute of Chartered Accountants in England and Wales (ICAEW). Having been a small business owner in the O&G business for nearly 20 years the first 15 of which I made most of my profits from exporting I must admit this article really made me annoyed. It was Mr Osbourne who changed the rules on dividend payments to directors/owners making a small business less attractive to run and then came up with the idea of making business produce accounts every 4 months. Anyway I can go on about this all day. Turning to your hotlist for 2017 – generally a good choice and I appreciate you can’t put every possibility on the list but I think Pantheon will do well this year whatever happens to the oil price. Their share price fell a lot in 2016 mainly due to mechanical rather than geological problems and their payback time on drilled wells is very short. One other interesting observation I notice how heavily weighted your selection is to the O&G sector. Rightly so I think and the FT this morning reported that B.P is not in the ‘running’ to bid for blocks in Iran. This is very interesting as it could well put a ‘floor’ under the oil price. As you know the oil markets have been scared of a flood of oil coming from Iran when sanctions are lifted. However if Trump bans non US companies who trade with the US from trading with Iran then this could seriously affect the oil price.

    1. There was a great quote last year (not so great that I can remember the author) that resonated with me more than anything else due to its blunt but beautiful simplicity. It read a bit a like this… The oil price will rise because at the moment ($45pb) no one is making any money.

      The majority of industry exists purely to make money. The oil industry is no different. The Saudi’s launched an attack on Shale and it worked a bit but the real damage wasn’t felt in the US, it was felt everywhere else across the globe with the exception of some low cost players in South East Asia. OPEC has talked about ‘rebalancing’ for over 18 months now. The talk ended in Dec and switched to a ‘action’. That action is being felt across oil trading platforms across the world but it won’t be fully known (the impact of cuts) until nearer the end of Jan. Historically, OPEC deals tend to fall apart fairly quickly but this time – it’s very different to the past. The Saudi’s have an eye on their first ever IPO on ARAMCO. This is set for 2018. China data today looked bullish for commodities, trump is bullish for commodities and we’ve had a decent 2 to 3 years of bearish oil related declines to many equities. It’s the perfect storm for a recovery. All involved seem absolutely committed to making it happen which is why I think the market is being a little bit foolish. It was hesitant prior to the OPEC deal and got a kicking for betting on a deal not happening. If speculators want to bet against OPEC again then good luck to them. But as far as I can see, there is no reason why PoO should not be trading at $65pb already. The strong dollar is not helping PoO at present but the irony is (and it is something that the market and investors seem to overlook) dollar related businesses that are sterling based are clearly going to be booking gains on rev via forex alone. That’s one of the reasons why I like many of the north sea players at present and why they feature strongly in the sharehub top ten for 2017. If last year was seen as a strong recovery, then this year could be even better for some key stocks. Enquest being one of them. Pantheon looks in ok shape but does need to crack on with delivering cash flow as promised – if they don’t get production moving soon, they’ll need another cash call.

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