In two days time England and Belgium will know who their likely opponents will be in the quarterfinals of the world cup which of course assumes all make it through the last 16. Both teams could find themselves in the bizarre situation of not wanting to win. Ironically, England’s 6-1 thrashing of Panama may well have earned them a quarter final fixture against Germany or Brazil, the two most favoured teams in the tournament. For non-footy fans this must be a tedious read, but even the footy haters out there can see the potential comedy ahead in this match. However, there is still one scenario that could play out which would see the winners of England’s group avoiding both Germany and Brazil… until the Final of course (wishful thinking!). Come Thursday morning, England and Belgium could find themselves thinking about a different match entirely… one that they must win.
Giving the World cup a run for its money in ‘media headlines’ is the Global Trade War which Mr Trump kicked off a month or two ago. The only problem here is that there are no winners. There is no golden boot to award or trophy at the end of this. Just bloody noses, lower GDP’s and a potential recession awaiting around the corner. It’s well known in various circles that you must get your interest rates higher first if you know you’ll be needing the cuts as stimulus further down the line. It’s no surprise to see the Fed Reserve hiking at every given opportunity. The UK and EU will surely follow but have their own ‘Brexit’ headwinds to contend with. The mantra is to hike rates now so you have something to cut in the future. Mmmm doesn’t fill one with a lot of confidence going into 2020 does it?
The ‘cap in hand’ season is well under way across the AIM index in particular. A number of minnows have raised cash via placings which on the whole are 20% to 25% discounted. Some have been opportunistic and not really justified. Which begs the question in some cases why they were done in the first place. It becomes an uneven playing field if the spread betting firms can simply call up a company and get a wedge of stock at 25% discount to cover their over exposed derrieres. Punters have made a few quid out of these companies and of late a ‘new’ way of ‘covering’ risk seems to be underway. In simple terms, if AIM listed companies are not careful, the retail investor will shun them for good. This is the life blood of AIM and spreadbetting firms. The easiest way to please all involved would be to provide investors with ‘open offers’. Allow existing investors to take some 25% reduced stock. In most cases, cash is not required in an emergency situation and as such allows for longer timeframes required to enable OO’s. So no excuses there. AIM Style management teams out there… listen up… don’t abuse your life blood and make sure you give ‘all’ stakeholders a bite of cherry.
Another tough week for commodities with Oil jumping about like a VAR referral system and Gold beginning to look cheaper than Vanilla pods (not quite). Of course, it’s not as simple as fundamental valuations in today’s casino. Too many hedges, Algo’s and products sold 10 x over results in a futures market that actually looks more like the past. The dollar is the main culprit and the sooner the PetroYuan gets established the better. The world needs to move away from pegging to the Dollar and it’s no wonder that the likes of crypto currencies have Wallstreet and co seriously worried. The future is likely to be a world where Oil consumption is replaced with clean fuels and the dollar replaced with digital currency. Between now and then, it’s going to be a battle for all involved – choppy and messy.
Finally, if you want to join Mr Trump in his Trade war games, all you have to do is avoid buying US products and Brands. If EU based, just buy the UK or EU equivalent. The more consumers buy ‘local’ the better. Avoid companies like Amazon and Apple who pay minimal tax to EU/UK. Avoid american beers. Buy craft beers that are wholly owned by homegrown independent brewers but check to make sure even these are not owned by large corporations. Have your say via your wallet.
Week 25 Review – Daily Mail stays firm while Sharehub picks drift lower. The Guardian picks suffered more than most and is now underwater for 2018. Roll on H2 as H1 is ending with a whimper. Most stocks are in a summer haze and news is thin on the ground. There’s not much to add at present. H2 should see a plethora of news from all ShareHub picks with production updates expected from AMER, HUM and CERP in next week or so.