Musk gone quiet. Serena gone quiet and miraculously even Boris gone quiet. All seem to be learning from their mistakes and hunkering down away from the media limelight. Should be a quiet week then… until the unbelievable happens…the Saudi’s well known for there discreet way they go about things, step up to the plate with an outrageous fatal Tarantino style fumbled illegal interrogation of journalist Mr Jamal Khashoggi. Turkish President Erdogan is no stranger in dealing with difficult Journalists. Serena Shim (29 year old US Journalist) was suspiciously killed in a car crash in 2014 shortly after being threatened by the Turkish Intelligence services – according to some news wires. If this was down to Russia, then sanctions would be forthcoming. But this is Saudi Arabia. Huge billion dollar arms deals are done between UK and Saudi. Same to be said of US. Rolls Royce sell huge amounts of cars to the middle east and Saudi’s. The list goes on. Hence, the consistent approach would be to put sanctions in place on SA. Ban the US and UK from doing arms deals and prevent Rolls Royce (and other car brands) from selling expensive cars. Not going to happen is it? It’s times like these where the ‘double standards’ really begin to come out into the open. Saudi Arabia is a honey pot. The western business world (and China) swarms around sucking up the honey at every given opportunity. So the question that really needs to be asked is how far can the Saudi’s go before the business world stop swarming around the honey and the UK and US stop selling arms? That’s a worrying question indeed especially when you take into consideration the Saudi’s ability to simply turn the oil taps off. It’s times like these that you really begin to get a feel for world order or the lack of it!
Moving on… Trump will be chuffed that the media world is chomping away on Saudi Arabia when they should be splattering the media channels with smear stories ahead of the US mid-terms. Distraction is a wonderful tool isn’t it Mr Trump? Markets are beginning to look edgy and derisk as a bad result for Mr Trump’s party could mean difficulties ahead for the US in policy terms as the President’s power to push through key plans potentially hit greater resistance.
With Major indices wobbling around, the Gold stuff is quite rightly strengthening. As the year nears the end, Gold should see further strength as Q4 tends to be a strong period for the precious metal.
Equities look weak at present. Algo bot sell programs aside, margins and leverages are being tested. Overstretched investors often become forced sellers which in turn delivers a more widespread correction which effects commodity stocks even when PoO is at 4 year year highs.
Week 42 Review:
The ShareHub picks have done well to retain a decent growth rate in 2018. The newspaper picks often favouring safer bluechips are suffering along with FTSE100. The Guardian’s woes continue and the DailyMail picks look wobbly. Still 10 weeks left to go but at present the ShareHub picks look a shoe-in. HUM, AMER, and SOLG are all seeking to bolster resources through exploration programmes. Results from all three should be through before year end. CERP is increasingly becoming a stock for 2019. 2018 has been a year of sorting out legacy issues and getting acquisitions completed. The stock should exit 2018 with around 1000bopd which is double where it ended 2017. These cash flows should deliver a self funded high impact exploration programme in the SWP, Trinidad. Some serious resources to be tapped and with a market cap of £29m at present, there should be plenty of upside ahead for the patient investor. Amerisur defies belief at the moment and should regain some value once the large seller has been cleared. November could be the month for AMER and at 11p a share, there is potential to double on any Indico-1 drill success. No guarantees of course! Risks remain – please see sidebar for risk warnings.