Another decent week for TheShareHub picks. The DOW bounced back strongly after US mid term elections delivered a strong result for President Trump. Yet again the President defeats the negative media with an election campaign that was based on common sense and business accumen. Why go after the house, when you know the most important and more realistic goal is the Senate. Past Presidents have either been Lawyers, Oil execs, Actors, Farmers or Writers to name a few but never before has America seen a President with Mr Trumps business prowess. The media has worked hard to paint a picture of a man who is a live wire or a loose cannon. But in true one track mind media style, not many will applaud his business sense. Just imagine Mr Trump doing the Brexit talks. I think Tusk and Barnier would have been put firmly back in their box a year ago. Mrs May is doing a fine job against a party background that is more interested in shifting internal status and power than determining the best deal for the British voter. There is no way that Mrs May can please all of the people all of the time. It’s not going to happen. The EU set out a message from the very beginning that they had to make Brexit feel like a punishment and the end result would need to deter any other country with ambitions of leaving the EU. That’s always going to be a lose lose situation, but that’s just the desired headline. The truth is, deals are made and then chipped away at over the following months and years slowly morphing into the best for ‘all’ involved. Trump would have arrived at that result in year 1. Compared to China, US, Russia and emerging countries like India, the EU looks weak and ponderous. Merkels days are numbered and one would hope that when she steps down in 2021, someone with some business sense steps in to replace her. Don’t get me wrong, a mix of skills is required in all governments, but it’s the lack of business skills that is missed most. Moving on, it’s good to see some Media are getting behind a campaign to u-turn the governments woeful decision to put off the Gambling bet reduction plan. There is no reason what-so-ever that this cannot be introduced in 2019 as previously planned and the likes of Hammond should hang his head in shame. Do the ‘proper’ thing and apologise, and bring it forward to next year. You’ve made mistakes before and done u-turns. You can do it again. The gambling industry will be just fine. Although Tory and other MP’s may seen a drop in election funds/donations next time around.
Week 45 Review:
If you had £100k to invest, then you’d be a lucky person. Based on below’s performances to date, the Guardian’s 2018 selection picked by industry experts (apparently) will have cost you almost £20k. Ouch! The DailyMail top city / analyst picks will have taken off almost £10k. TheShareHub picks at present will have grown your cash pile by £10k. That’s a £30k swing on the Guardian’s performance and a £20k swing based on the DailyMail’s results thus far. Of course there are occasions where you may have sold stocks rather than sitting locked in for 12 months but that’s the way the top picks comp works. It’s where you start Jan 1st and end Dec 31st that counts. Some stocks within the newspaper picks may give out moderate divi’s which could skew the numbers by 1% or 2% but generally, the numbers seen are how they would feel in the pocket.
Still some 7 weeks left to go and the way the markets are trading at present some would be say christmas trading has come early. Volumes are low and participation across the board looks poor. Risk off investors may have retreated to their caves ahead of the big Brexit deal decision. We saw a similar pattern ahead of the US mid terms and markets rallied after results proved to be ok for Mr Trump. Brexit is certainly beginning to heat up now we are at the sharp end. The odd thing is that at this stage you would think the British people would know the basis of the deal tabled. In fact, it is the opposite. Left in the dark at the 11th hour is never a good idea and getting this elephant through a narrow exit door is going to need a great deal of pushing. It’s been messy from the outset and it’s not looking like being a slick finish especially as the very public that voted for it have yet to show their voice.
Roll on week 46. The 175th OPEC meeting is set for Dec 6th. Historically, Oil tends to head higher going into these meetings. Currently at $68.5pb (Brent), it looks cheap considering the lack of floating oil storage out there. Supply is tight and the Saudi’s want brent closer to $75pb than $65pb based on recent hints. So expect some positive movement once the hedge funds have adjusted their short weighted positions of course!