ShareHub Hotlist 2018 Final Results

TheShareHub top ten picks wins the Hotlist cup for 2018 by a country mile. Despite a late dash for the blue finish line, the top ten picks came in with a minor loss of 2.23% which feels like a result in a very volatile market – a backdrop which saw many of the newspaper expert picks slaughtered on mass.

The DailyMail won the cup in 2017 with a very respectful 20% gain but in 2018, the cup holders limped in with a loss of just under 17% (excluding dividends). The Guardian top picks suffered early losses through Footasylum and never really recovered. Ending the year with a whopping 27%+ loss excluding any dividends.

TheShareHub brought in fresh blood with the 2018 picks and this proved to be a smart move. On a comparable basis, had the ShareHub top ten picks of 2017 simply rolled over into 2018, the end result would have been a brutal 18% loss. Just goes to show that Portfolio rotation and getting rid of some dead wood, is or can be, a winning strategy.

Week 52/Final Results Below, along with a short summary on TheShareHub top ten.

ShareHub final Results – week 52
Daily Mail final Results – week 52
Guardian final Results – week 52

Summary of ShareHub Hotlist 2018: (in no particular order)

  1. Amerisur Resources – A strong finish to the year saw AMER close out the year like a bull in a china shop. A large distressed private investor had been actively selling down over 100m shares throughout the year which took its toll. The seller is now cleared and AMER is getting back to doing what it does best… delivering great news flow with the drill bit. A poor share price performance year for AMER, but operationally, it was an absolute success. The market is slowly waking up to the disconnect between recent success and an oversold share price.
  2. Columbus Energy – In transition phase and spent majority of 2018 getting the house in order. Production steady but growth has been limited due to legacy issues. With new acquisitions bedded in and exciting exploration planned in 2019, 2018 should be a year to forget and 2019 a year to look forward to. Schroders and other large investors have been filling their boots so 2019 could see strong gains.
  3. Cora Gold – Disappointing year largely due to managements sleepy approach to funding. Success with the drill bit needed to be turned into an early fundraiser as 2019 plans were always going to require more funding. They left it too late which is the one reason for the share price’s decline. Problems at Hummingbird’s Yanfolila Mine have not helped much either. Without Hummingbird doing well, Cora have an uphill struggle ahead as large financial packages for small mine developments is nigh impossible in current market space. Farming out or doing a deal with HUM would be best way forwards for all involved. Dropped from the ShareHub picks for 2019.
  4. Hummingbird – First multibagger of the year for ShareHub top ten picks in 2017. Unfortunately, the rainy season and some poor management decisions by CEO Dan Betts put an end to HUM’s golden boy glow. Instead, investors were left scratching their heads at what seemed like a management team asleep at the wheel. Poor year for HUM and 2019 looks far from a stroll in the park for them. Tough challenges ahead remain but a deal with Cora could see value added fast. Extending the mine life and stability issues are paramount.
  5. Petrofac – Had a very solid year with strong debt reduction and new order book builds. SFO investigation still a concern and keeping some investors away. Crash in Oil prices reduced a very good year to a 6% loss in the last few weeks. Should recover with Oil Prices but SFO case firmly on investors minds going into 2019. A successful outcome should see the stock rerate. Dropped from TheShareHub picks for 2019.
  6. Premier Oil – One of those head scratching moments. Trading at 146p a few months ago yet closed out the year on its knes at 66p. Makes no sense. Company has made great progress across bulk of folio with production rising and exploration kicking off again at Zama, Mexico. Debt is a concern in lower PoO environments, but equally large exploration finds like Zama and Sealion assets need to be factored into values to. At present the market is discounting PMO based on lower oil price projections yet is not accounting for the $70pb hedges in place. The stock should be double the price and like Ophir Energy recently, a takeover offer from India or Asia could be forthcoming.
  7. Providence Resources – A decent year for getting farm out deals agreed but the long awaited Barryroe appraisal/exploration phase has been delayed and that’s a significant blow to investors that do not like cash tied up for months and months with little growth or movement. Great prospects and a decent hold longer term. Useful 31% gain in 2018 but dropped for 2019 on Barryroe delays.
  8. Serica Energy – BP have become Serica’s sugar daddy of late. Gifted some incredible assets at bargain prices. The question now for investors is how well will these assets produce? Iranian issues on one shared licence appear to be resolved but after a very solid 50% gain in 2018, it’s time for some fresh blood. Dropped.
  9. Solgold – Another head scratcher. Share price drifted down from high 30’s to test 20p against a backdrop of great exploration assay news. BHP taking a large slice of stock from a previous seller soon woke the market up and the share finished the year up 25%. Not a bad performance but with several large mining companies swarming around the honey pot, the real event should be coming in 2019 with an agreed buyout on one or all of the company’s assets.
  10. W Resources – A great year with 40% gain. Many operational boxes ticked and whilst there were some annoying fundraising events, the stock looks well set to produce cash flows from early production in 2019. Looks like a solid year ahead for WRES.

That concludes the 2018 stock review. Disappointing after the early surge which saw the top ten picks up 18% for the year. TheShareHub top ten performance in 2016 was an enormous 130% and it was always a tall order to match. That said, a minor loss of 2.23% feels like a victory in this market and considerably better than the 9% loss in 2017.

More depth and coverage to follow on the new 2019 ShareHub top ten picks over the coming days.