A quiet week all round. Markets continue to tip toe to all time highs without the usual media fanfare. Quietly does it… and hopefully no one will notice! That’s probably the best way to go because if there was ever a time for markets to be heading to all time highs, NOW would most certainly NOT be that time. US growth is slowing. China growth is slowing. Trade talks are drifting along. Brexit is drifting indefinately. The EU are economically on their knees (just look at the numbers coming out of Germany) and yet they seem to be keeping a cool poker face in all of this. The reality is, they need the UK more than the UK needs them. You wouldn’t know it listening to Barnier and Tusk. The EU is in big trouble and as this game of chicken nears the end, another surely begins. The only way to get a deal done that suits the UK is to set a deadline for the EU and change the table of events. If Brexit talks 2.0 begin with a new deal to be discussed, then a deadline has to be written in stone this time. No one gets to move it and only then will you get a result that suits both.
Week 13 Review:
Amerisur Resources surprised the market with a duster at Calao-1x. It was exploring the South West area of the Indico-1 discovery and quite ambitious based on location. Had they drilled a little closer to Indico-1 (SW) they may have had greater success. It’s no surprise to see the company moving towards this strategy with the next well which is cited as Indico-2, an appraisal well which should be low risk. Across the rest of the folio, AMER is making progress with workovers and boosting production in the process. The drop in share price looks a bit knee jerk rather than well founded and a recovery should be expected especially with the bumper filled 2019 operational plan. Investors will not be bored with this company especially with potential predators sniffing around the licence blocks. AMER will announce FY results on April 9th.
Petra Diamonds has been in the wars of late with lower revenue numbers and a share price that has halved since Jan 2019. Recent success with some gigantic sized diamond discoveries seem to have been batted away with the usual market nonchalance. I suspect a few are NET ‘short’ and are in no mood to change direction yet. A few more large discoveries and that mindset will need to change. At 18.5p, PDL are looking very cheap. Debt is a concern but recent falls look overdone.
PoO’s inevitable rise back to the $70’s is upon us. OPEC are due to hook up for a review in 2 weeks (April 17th) and if they maintain cuts or even increase them, then PoO could be off to the $80’s again. Higher prices bodes well for the high debt E&P’s. Tullow, Premier Oil and Enquest have all done well of late. Although the latter is still trading where it was when PoO was in the $40’s which is puzzle. Concerns over Kraken continue to grow and the company needs to ensure that performance this year is kept to guidance. Anything under guidance and the market may well crucify ENQ regardless of PoO prices.
Roll on next week and ISA season. New allowances will be available from April 6th. Buy selectively and always consult your broker regarding potential timeframes. It’s a busy period for many but usually calms down pretty quickly after the initial wave is done. Sometimes, it can be beneficial to wait for the dust to settle but always invest/trade to your own strategy and if unsure consult a regulated FCA advisor.