The 2010 Hotlist Results are in.
2010 was a rollercoaster year that promised so much with a bullish start. The brakes were applied in May due to a lack of confidence throughout global markets driven by Sovereign Debt/Euro zone woes. QE2 put the fizz back in to the markets with the FTSE 100 breaking 6000 on Dec 24th for the first time since June 2008.
In addition to the 2010 Hotlist, several ‘Heads Up’s’ were given on stocks throughout the year with notable Multibaggers such as Nautical, (125p to £4 = 3 BAGGER) Encore (16p to 135p = 8 BAGGER) and Xcite (40p to £4.20 = 10 BAGGER).
The 2010 Hotlist was a mix of High, Medium and Low risk stocks taken from a variety of sectors. A number of Multibaggers were available on several stocks listed based on entering at lows and selling at year highs. Investors should look closely at the Lows and Highs as they often tell a very different story.
Two significant recovery plays of note were AST and TRP. AST dropped from 6p to 3p, only then to put on a strong finish to touch 9p+. A 3 BAGGER for some lucky folk. TRP was even better. The Sp dropped from 3.87p to 1p after they hit a dry hole. A ‘Heads Up’ at 1p was given citing ‘oversold’ and the stock finished the year strongly to close at 5p+. A 5 BAGGER for some.
The lesson to be learned from TRP and AST is best summarised in one word ‘Patience’. It’s also worth noting that ‘bottom fishing’ (buying at lower sp points or averaging down) can be rewarding on some stocks if the fundamentals/opportunities remain in place despite set backs such as unsuccessful drills.
Based on investing £10,000 in total with £1000 in each stock the overall profit for 2010 = £2595.00 (26%)
Tracking the FTSE 100, by contrast, would have turned £10,000 into £10,899, a gain of just under 9 per cent. As benchmarks, the 2010 top ten picks from newspapers, The Independent returned a gain of 13.5%, The Sunday Times 20.8% and The Sunday Telegraph 23.8%.
Dec 31st Close 2010 – Final Results
In performance order with 2010 high/lows
1. Ithaca (IAE) Oil & Gas / RISK FACTOR – MEDIUM
Dec 31st 2009 Close Sp 83.75p / Dec 31st 2010 Close Sp 169.75p (+103%)
2010 Low 74p / High 195p
2010 Summary: Ithaca performed well throughout the year and recovered well after a significant share placing which took the wind out of the sails, but now leaves them fully funded through to meeting their 22kbopd targets in 2013.
2. Gulf Keystone (GKP) Oil & Gas / RISK FACTOR – HIGH
Dec 31st 2009 Close Sp 90p / Dec 31st 2010 Close Sp 168.5p (+87%)
2010 Low 66.5p / High 203p
2010 Summary: It was an odd year for GKP. Dominated by Iraq Politics and delays to their drill program saw the sp languish around 70p for months before springing into action after the initial placing at 75p was completed. Further cash was raised at 140p. A new Iraq gov was formed in late Dec but this great news was offset by news that an opportunistic legal dispute had been raised on GKP’s assets causing the sp to trade down from 185p range to 160p range.
3. Ascent Resouces (AST) Oil & Gas / RISK FACTOR – HIGH
Dec 31st 2009 Close sp 5.5p / Dec 31st 2010 Close Sp 9.125p (+66%)
2010 Low 3p / High 9.25p
2010 Summary: A series of delays on drills and less than excitable results all contributed to the sp’s decline in 2010. But new licence’s and increased acreage combined with better news on Slovenia all helped to see AST make a great recovery.
4. Innovation Group (TIG) Biz/Software / RISK FACTOR – LOW
Dec 31st 2009 Close sp 11p / Dec 31st 2010 Close Sp 15p (+36.5%)
2010 Low 9.75p / High 15.75p
2010 Summary: A mixed year that saw significant management changes and strategies implemented. Several contract wins ensured that estimates were met and the sp continued to press on to a respectable 15p and 36.5% gain for the year.
5. Tower Resources (TRP) Oil & Gas / RISK FACTOR – HIGH
Dec 31st 2009 Close sp 3.87p / Dec 31st 2010 Close Sp 5.125p (+32.5%)
2010 Low 1p (due to duster) / High 5.25p
2010 Summary: The year started well with much optimism. Unfortunately the drill was not successful. A further ‘Heads Up’ was given at 1p due to being ‘oversold’ and after partners in surrounding licences had successes, interest returned to Tower and the sp finished near year highs.
6. Invista Euro (IERE) Euro Com Property /RISK FACTOR – MEDIUM
Dec 31st 2009 Close sp 23.75p / Dec 31st 2010 Close Sp 26.5p (+11.5%)
2010 Low 21.25p / High 32.25p
2010 Summary: A steady year for IERE. Property stabilised and rental income increased on a minor level which when combined helped secure a relatively consistent NAV. The sector saw many stocks fall as stagnant growth proved too much for many impatient investors. IERE was one of the higher performers in the property sector.
7. Max Petroleum (MXP) Oil & Gas / RISK FACTOR – HIGH
Dec 31st 2009 Close sp 17p / Dec 31st 2010 Close Sp 18.25p (+7.5%)
2010 Low 9.5p / High 29.5p
2010 Summary: Another volatile year for MXP. A number of shallow drills were completed with a few small successes in terms of adding oip/production. The latest ‘possible’ success ‘UTS’ has saved MXP from a difficult year which saw them lose a significant licence and score more than a handful of dusters. UTS news has not yet been confirmed due to ongoing tests. Management have said that it could be a ‘significant’ find.
8. Aminex (AEX) Oil & GAS / RISK FACTOR – HIGH
Dec 31st 2009 Close sp 9.5p / Dec 31st 2010 Close Sp 8.5p (-10.5%)
2010 Low 6.38p / High 17.25p
2010 Summary: After a bright start which saw Aminex almost double in the first few weeks of trading, an unsuccessful drill on their JV with Tullow saw the sp slip back from where it struggled to recover. Concerns over funding requirements have weighed heavily on the stock as well as JP Morgan selling down a sizable holding.
9. Vialogy (VIY) Seismic Software / RISK FACTOR – HIGH
Dec 31st 2009 Close sp 4.38p / Dec 31st 2010 Close Sp 3.375p (-23.5%)
2010 Low 2.75p / High 8.5p
2010 Summary: Unusual year for VIY. Success with several majors should have been met with more enthusiasm from the market. The year started well with the stock almost doubling. Unfortunate client restraints on releasing news means VIY have to wait until partners are ready before they can confirm success. Often this can take 4 to 6 months with some drills. Market didn’t see enough evidence of revenue model coming to fruition in 2010.
10. Oxford Biomed (OXB) BioMedical / RISK FACTOR – HIGH
Dec 31st 2009 Close sp 11.25p / Dec 31st 2010 Close Sp 5.53p (-51%)
2010 Low 5.35p / High 12.25p
2010 Summary: As with many bio’s, copious amounts of patience is required by investors as key products go through many stages of development and approvals. Cash burn is high and unfortunately investors have been tapped for more cash late this year via a placing and OO which is dilutive. Assuming investors took up their OO allocation, then losses may be lower than shown.