2012 Hotlist FINAL Results Week 52

Week 52 of 2012

Where has the year gone? As 2012 ends and we enter 2013, many will be scratching their heads over what exactly happened in 2012 to drive the FTSE up to touching distance of 6000. It seemed like doom and gloom as ECB and Fed Reserve played wait-and-see with the recovery. By the time Obama was at the polls QE3 was in full swing across the globe. Equities should have been body popping with excitement – but instead were left largely neglected amongst the small cap and mid caps.

The traditional low risk stocks that often frequent the FTSE100 or 250 were in popular demand with many seemingly shrugging off dire earnings announcements and continuing to be bought up.

But the last quarter was probably the most revealing. While most expected Equities across the US and Euro markets too surge higher – most simply plateaued or traded sideways. Institutions awash with QE3 cash were  happy to avoid US and Euro markets and head further east to Japan. The latter was the chief beneficiary as the Nikkei surged from 8360 in Jan to finish 2012 at 10395. Under normal circumstances a 2000pts plus gain in one year would be astonishing – but when you account for the fact that 1800pts came in the last 10 weeks of the year – it becomes even more remarkable. But that’s QE3 for you. It’s terrific for equities. Trouble is – this year it wasn’t making its way through to the normal channels (UK/US and Europe). Perhaps a reversal of this trend could see markets boosted in 2013 and Japan and co topping off/pulling back? For the time being – until the US sorts its debt ceiling issues (kicked down the road to Feb 2013) the hot money might be quite happy staying where it is.

The Dow closed the year at 13104, 7.3% higher than last year. The FTSE 100 closed the year at 5898 and a respectable 5.8% gain on the year. But both were dwarfed by the massive 25%+ rise on the Nikkei.

A virtual portfolio has been set up using the 2011 final trading day close figures as a starting point and £1000 has been invested in each stock. This does not include buying fees or stamp duty and is purely intended to be used as a benchmark or summary for each week. 2 newspaper top tens for 2012 have been included to help monitor/compare against.

Week 52 stock picks summary:

Hats off to the Independents stock picks for 2012. A near 50% gain is nothing short of remarkable especially when you account for the simple fact that these stock picks are ‘static’ – they are not traded at highs and bought lower during the year on the dips like most active hedge funds. They are literally stock picks that are tucked away in the draw for 12 months. In today’s markets it’s not entirely sensible to treat your stock picks like premium bonds. The markets are going through one of their most volatile periods in history. Keeping a keen eye on your stocks is very much about personal risk assessment and your own strategies. But there are many that will not admit to leaving their stocks unattended for 12 months of the year. The higher risk stock picks certainly need more baby sitting than the conservative lower risk picks. The hotlist is packed of potential multi-baggers/high risk plays yet is more likely to deliver losers than winners as many are exploring high impact oil/gas opportunities based on less than 25% Chance of Success (CoS). The volatility of these stocks makes a 12 month journey a little tricky to summarise. For instance – the year ending figures for Gulf Keystone (an AIM fav for pi’s) shows a poor performance for 2012 of -6.84%. Yet in early 2012, the stock was soaring high at 460p+ and a gain of near 150%! A multi-bagger for 2012 but only if you sold at the top. Hence – rating a 12 month performance based on the final closing prices on Dec 31st does not quite tell the true story. But that’s the rules of the game for these stock picks and investors are free to sell, buy or hold as they see fit based on their own risk management or via guidance from a regulated FSA advisor.

That all said and done – it does indeed demonstrate just how good the Independent’s 48%+ gain is for 2012.

At the heart of their stock picks performance was a commodity player called Providence Resources. It’s ironic that the best performer should come from a sector that has largely under performed in 2012. But that’s the beauty of high impact exploration. One big discovery really is transformational for the smaller players.

This year saw the introduction of the more conservative B-list picks from thesharehub. Designed to compete more on a level par with the typical newspaper picks by mixing it up with a variety of sector picks based on lower risk stocks. Pipping the TempusTimes to second spot is enjoyable but when compared to the likes of the Guardian and Telegraph picks, it still lags them by a large gap. So a good performance but nothing to write home about.

The Hotlist comes in with another red numbered finish which is disappointing. After spending most of the year in the blue, the stock picks lost momentum with inconclusive / poor drill results from Antrim, MXP and BOR. Ophir spared further blushes but along with GKP did provide multibagger returns albeit for a temporary period.

Mergers were a further achillies’ heal. Petroceltic and San Leon were both hamstrung by merger /acquisition deals. Whilst attractive longer term – both deals are very much stories for 2013 rather than 2012, hence both stocks performances were well below their expected ability.

Overall, all the Hotlist picks could easily roll over into 2013 as all stocks with exception to BOR have the same potential to deliver great returns in the new trading year as they did in 2012. In fact, quite a few are in a much better shape now than they were 12 months ago. Yet mysteriously trade at lower prices. Perhaps Mr Market will take a refresher in 2013 and give the smallcaps and mid caps a chance to shine. 2011 was ugly, 2012 was not that pretty either – perhaps 2013 is the year for a return to higher risk stocks. They are certainly cheap enough based on the last 2 years under performance. The government’s move to allow all AIM listed stocks into ISA’s should add some interest back into the neglected sector.

The new stock picks for 2013 will be announced (before market open tomorrow).

Final standings / Week 52 Results

1. The Independent 2012 +48.44% (weekly gain of 2.45%)
2. Thesharehub’s ‘B’ List 2012 +10.25% (weekly gain of 0.1%)
3. Tempus Times 2012 +8.56% (weekly gain of 0.57%)
4. Thesharehub’s 2012 Hotlist -8.63% (weekly gain of 2.32%)

Click on Portfolio image to enlargeIndependents Final Results - 2012The Sharehubs B-List Final Results 2012TempusTimes Final Results 2012TheSharehubs Hotlist Final Results 2012

2012 Hotlist Results – Week 51

Week 51 of 2012

With only 2.5 trading days left before the end of the year, it’s looking unlikely that the US will get their Fiscal Cliff talks resolved before then. It’s a shame that those involved see the situation as an opportunity to score political points rather than looking at resolving the issues. With the EU seemingly berated from across the pond for slow progress on Europe, one has to say that the US has done themselves no favours in showing the world how they do it. A missed opportunity.

The Dow closed the week up 56pts at 13135 but had been much higher. The FTSE 100 closed up 18pts at 5940 but had flirted with the big 6000 line earlier in the week.

A virtual portfolio has been set up using the 2011 final trading day close figures as a starting point and £1000 has been invested in each stock. This does not include buying fees or stamp duty and is purely intended to be used as a benchmark or summary for each week. 2 newspaper top tens for 2012 have been included to help monitor/compare against.

Week 51 stock picks summary:

Just 2.5 days left before the Independent Stocks picks are crowned champions. It’s been a great year for those involved with the list. It’s a little ironic that a small Oil exploration company (PVR) accounts for almost 35% of the list’s success when you consider the wider E&P small cap poor performance. But the balance of adding just one or two high risk stocks with the bulk of lower risk stocks has yet again proven to be the magic recipe for success. The sharehub’s B-list which was designed to tick the above ‘lower’ risk box has performed well but is not yet over the line – The Tempus Times still has second spot within reach. The wooden spoon rests with the high risk Hotlist and anything closing in the red single digits will be viewed as welcome. A full summary of the stock picks performance will be posted with the final week 52 results.

Current standings / Week 51 Results

1. The Independent 2012 +45.99% (weekly gain of 0.88%)
2. Thesharehub’s ‘B’ List 2012 +10.15% (weekly gain of 1.66%)
3. Tempus Times 2012 +7.99% (weekly loss of 0.41%)
4. Thesharehub’s 2012 Hotlist -10.95% (weekly gain of 0.37%)

Click on Portfolio image to enlarge Independent Week51B-listweek 51

B-list week 51Hotlist Week 51

Call for Entries – Hotlist 2013

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It’s that time of year again.

So if you think you know a stock that is likely to star/perform well in 2013, post a comment with your recommendation before Dec 27th 2012.

Keep it short, and nominate which list you think it would be best suited to.

Be patient – your post/comment might not show up on the site immediately due to the administrator/moderator.

For clarification – there are two stock picks lists. The first is mainly commodity/high risk stock picks and called the Hotlist. The second is called the ‘B-list’ and based on more conservative/less risky stocks. The latter tends to be spread across a number of sectors.

The lists will go live on Wednesday January 2nd 2013.

Good luck.

2012 Hotlist Results – Week 50

Week 50 of 2012

Almost nothing worth noting in what is currently a stand off between american politicians and congress. Fiscal Cliff or no fiscal cliff – these guys really know how to take the issues to the wire. You’d think they might learn something by now – but just as last year, they play it down to the last second. It’s not smart and it’s not helpful. Decisions on the US debt issue along with Tax rises or breaks should have been decided with speed post US elections. Will they ever learn?

The Dow closed down a barely note worthy 20pts at 13135. The FTSE 100 closed up 8pts at 5922.

A virtual portfolio has been set up using the 2011 final trading day close figures as a starting point and £1000 has been invested in each stock. This does not include buying fees or stamp duty and is purely intended to be used as a benchmark or summary for each week. 2 newspaper top tens for 2012 have been included to help monitor/compare against.

Week 50 stock picks summary:

Very quiet out there at present with very little to note on equities. It’s a sluggish end to 2012 in a year that has left many scratching their heads on where exactly the markets should be heading.

The Independent stock picks for 2012 is a bit like the Bradley Wiggins of Sport Personality of the year. Streets ahead and there’s only one winner here. Second spot is by far the most interesting battle and one that could still go either way. The Sharehub’s B-list picks have the advantage but it’s slim and can be overturned very quickly.

The hotlist shows the bruises inflicted by a market that is still out of sorts with the commodity small caps. Exploration success has been minimal in 2012 with Ophir, Providence Resources and Afren being the main leaders.

The last 2 years have been pretty poor on commodities which is a surprise when you account for the rather high energy prices seen today and over the period. Perhaps 2013 could be the year where the market has a new look at these high risk/reward plays?

Current standings / Week 50 Results

1. The Independent 2012 +45.01% (weekly loss of 1.49%)
2. Thesharehub’s ‘B’ List 2012 +9.49% (weekly loss of 0.38%)
3. Tempus Times 2012 +8.40% (weekly loss of 1.00%)
4. Thesharehub’s 2012 Hotlist -11.28% (weekly loss of 1.67%)

Click on Portfolio image to enlargeIndependent Week 50B-list Week 50TempusTimes Week 50Hotlist Week 50

2012 Hotlist Results – Week 49

Week 49 of 2012

Modest gains for the leading indices which off the back of greater gains through early Dec is not bad at all. While Fiscal cliff talks continue and QE extends its way into 2013, some investors are beginning to show the bruises of the last 2 years. For commodity plays, it has been a poor 24 months. Some stocks are in finer form than they were back in the dark days of 2009 yet are mysteriously trading below even those levels.

CAZA Oil & Gas is a good example of a stock that fell victim to the markets casino style trading games. After being fairly rock solid at 20p levels, the stock drifted as low as 6p on nothing significant – no negative news, just market trading. In the last few weeks – reality has returned and the stock is back trading at 20p. In short, the small caps in particular have been much harder to ‘hold’ against the wild swings in volatility. It tests an investors patience to the limit especially when good news greeted will a muted response yet any negative news is met with such bearish conviction. The half full or half empty balance is firmly to the negative in this current climate. The market appears happier to be shown to be proven wrong than price in any optimism.

News from the UK budget plans on AIM stocks being ISA’able might be of some help in terms of attraction – and perhaps the very fact that this ‘rule’ is about to change for the better suggests more about the dwindling interest in these volatile loosely regulated indexes.

The market has a habit of doing the opposite to what investors think is coming. So perhaps 2013 will see the pi sidelined on AIM stocks just as the II’s enter?

The Dow closed up 130pts higher than last week at 13155. The FTSE 100 closed up 47pts at 5914.

A virtual portfolio has been set up using the 2011 final trading day close figures as a starting point and £1000 has been invested in each stock. This does not include buying fees or stamp duty and is purely intended to be used as a benchmark or summary for each week. 2 newspaper top tens for 2012 have been included to help monitor/compare against.

Week 49 stock picks summary:

Premier/Antrim failed on Cyclone drill leaving Antrim looking rather ‘cheap’ against its fair value. The company has solid production, cash flow and booked reserves. With no debt to boot, at £60mln market cap, it looks like another market error. Perhaps like the CAZA story, it will recover quickly once the games been completed.

The Independent stock picks added to its fine 2012 performance and being crowned champion for the second year running is just 3 weeks away. Tempus Times continues to slug it out with thesharehub’s B-list picks – The latter assumes second spot and will be keen to push into double figures? The AIM listed dominant Hotlist is flagging along with the main AIM index. As Christmas nears it will take some miracle to see it end in the blue.

Current standings / Week 49 Results

1. The Independent 2012 +46.51% (weekly gain of 2.35%)
2. Thesharehub’s ‘B’ List 2012 +9.87% (weekly gain of 0.63%)
3. Tempus Times 2012 +9.40% (weekly gain of 0.07%)
4. Thesharehub’s 2012 Hotlist -9.61% (weekly loss of 2.66%)

Click on Portfolio image to enlarge

2012 Hotlist Results – Week 48

Week 48 of 2012

The markets side stepped their way through week 48 with the Dow closing just 16pts higher than last week at 13025 – but still above the 13k level. The FTSE 100 fared better, closing up 53pts at 5867.

With November out of the way – investors will be wondering whether a Santa rally is around the corner? With the DOW still a decent 700pts off 2012 highs, there’s room to have some seasonal flair without being accused of being over optimistic. Unfortunately – US fiscal cliff talks are likely to dictate the markets appetite near term so watch out for glimmers of progress. With the clock ticking, something has to give soon.

A virtual portfolio has been set up using the 2011 final trading day close figures as a starting point and £1000 has been invested in each stock. This does not include buying fees or stamp duty and is purely intended to be used as a benchmark or summary for each week. 2 newspaper top tens for 2012 have been included to help monitor/compare against.

Week 48 stock picks summary:

The more conservative stock picks continue to dominate the share pick performances. The higher risk commodities had another shot of reality when small cap FOGL released uncommercial results from its Falkland Island Drill.

Next up, should be New World Oil & Gas (NEW) and also Premier/Antrim with results from their current drills.

GKP’s CEO appears in court for circa 2 to 3 weeks and will no doubt be the focus of the english press who like a gossip/headline story. Kurdistan investors will have one eye on the case and one eye on the Erbil conference. Also, WZR (Western Zagros) will be in the spot light as results are due from their K-2 well.

The independent stock picks for 2012 continues to fly sky high. Bigger changer on the week was the Tempus Times times helped by the near 50% climb in ‘Invensys’ after the company announced asset sales plans and a large cash back for investors.

With 4 weeks left – it would take a brave person to bet against the winner this year, but the real race of interest looks to be for second place. Will Thesharehub’s B-list picks overtake the TempusTimes?

Current standings / Week 48 Results

1. The Independent 2012 +44.16% (weekly gain of 0.09%)
2. Tempus Times 2012 +9.33% (weekly gain of 4.84%)
3. Thesharehub’s ‘B’ List 2012 +8.56% (weekly loss of 0.63%)
4. Thesharehub’s 2012 Hotlist -6.95% (weekly loss of 1.98%)

Click on Portfolio image to enlarge