2013 Stock picks – Final Results (week 52)

As 2013 ends and we start a new trading year, the 2013 stock picks final results are in based on Dec 31st Closing prices.

A big hats off to the Independent newspaper picks which has now returned over 50% growth yoy. That’s quite an achievement and leaves most highly paid fund mangers looking red faced. This comes against a very healthy 13.9% gain on the FTSE.

It was clearly a year fuelled by free cash via QE3 US bond buying and BoE stimulus. The market was content to stick with blue chips rather than the usual high risk high return stock plays. Hence commodities had yet another poor year. The discounts to NAV at presnet are lower in many cases than those seen in the dark days of 2009. Quite remarkable considering oil prices are 300% higher today than back then.

Sector rotation may soon be upon us as QE taper begins to kick in and the banks/city players are forced to take more risk on as they seek to generate higher profits.

With interest rate policies across the world seemingly frozen or in hibernation for 12 months+, the markets should have little to fear heading into 2014.

But the inevitable withdrawal of QE (in complete form) is perhaps a one way story, GDP and individual company profits should help guide the markets back to a modicum of fundamental analysis.

The AIM sector is set to see some bolstering in the form of Stamp duty lifted in April (6th) as the government seeks to win over voters ahead of elections.

It may help with volumes in the early part of the year but for many commodity focussed stocks, a turn around in sentiment is what is needed the most. A major discovery or the transformational sort is required across a number of minnows to get that feel good factor back. Add to this some nice chunky M&A/takeover stories and hey presto, AIM / commodities could be back in favour.

With stocks so beaten up and undervalued at present such as BLVN, XEL and GKP as examples; it might only take one big predator/takeover to occur to spark a huge rerating across such stocks.

Until that time arrives – it could be much of the same. Investors will be hoping that 2014 is the year that the minnows bounce back and AIM comes to life.

 FINAL standings / Week 52

1. The Independent 2013 +55.39% (Stunning performance – awesome!)
2. The LSE BB List 2013 +15.83% (Not bad considering these picks are mainly AIM smallcaps)
3. TheShareHub’s 2013 B-List +14.20% (Out-performed FTSE but hit hard by KAZ and IMG)
4. TheShareHub’s 2013 Hotlist -31.72% (Afren shines,but many others failed to deliver)

Click on Portfolio image to enlarge

independent final results week 52

LSE BB polled picks final results week 52 sharehub b-list final results week 52 sharehub hotlist final results week 52

2013 Hotlist Results – Week 51

Week 51 of 2013

The penultimate week of 2013 ends on a high note as the US Fed Reserve served up a taper but also further guidance on interest rates. It was the latter assurances that pleased the market most and perhaps the $10bln taper was lower than many were expecting.

With a short trading week ahead, the final days trading will be on Tuesday 31st Dec (half day).

I wouldn’t expect too much going on into these sessions as most have hung their boots up for the year now.

The Dow closed the week up a whopping 466 points at 16221. The FTSE closed the week at 6607 up 167pts.

A virtual portfolio has been set up using the 2012 final trading day close figures as a starting point and £1000 has been invested in each stock. This does not include buying fees or stamp duty and is purely intended to be used as a benchmark or summary for each week. One newspaper top ten picks for 2013 has been included to help monitor/compare against. A pi ‘polled’ top picks list (from LSE bulletin boards) has been included this year.

Week 51 stock picks summary:

Another poor weak for commodities as the slump continues. Serica were hit by a duster in morocco and also BP’s decision to not take up the drill option on the namibian licence. The latter is not the end of the world by any means and Serica now have an 85% interest in the block with $50mln of 3D seismics available/completed. Most would expect another farm out deal and this time at a better interest/share basis to that of the previous BP deal. Other stocks which have faltered are GKP and BLVN. Both have suffered from over promising and under delivering. In the end, excuses run out and fingers begin to be pointed at management. Heads roll eventually. It’s like premiership football managers – poor performance costs you your job regardless of whether it’s due to injuries, lack of funding, poor referee decisions etc etc.

As the stock picks head into their final week – the positions are all but decided. A gap has opened up on second spot and the sharehub b-list will have a slim chance of jumping over the LSE BB polled picks.

If you haven’t got your stock recommendations/tips in for 2014, be quick as the lists will close on Dec 31st.

Current standings / Week 51 Results

1. The Independent 2013 +51.96% (Weekly gain of 4.77%)
2. The LSE BB List 2013 +16.39% (Weekly gain of 0.70%)
3. TheShareHub’s 2013 B-List +12.25% (Weekly gain of 2.09%)
4. TheShareHub’s 2013 Hotlist -31.01% (Weekly loss of 2.36%)

Click on Portfolio image to enlargeIndependent week 51png LSE BB polled picks week 51 TSH B-list week 51 TSH hotlist week 51

2013 Hotlist Results – Week 50

Week 50 of 2013

Not a great week for the markets and commodities in particular. US markets wobbled on fears of QE3 taper kicking in as soon as next weeks FED meeting. Ironically – it was the politicians that got a debt deal agreed which unsettled the market. Once the thorn in the markets side – the politicians seem all organised and on top of things. Perhaps that’s because they’ve had some reassurances from the FED that action on printing free money is going to be reduced? That’s just a hunch mind you.

The Dow closed the week down 265 points at 15755. The FTSE closed the week on 6440 down 112pts.

A virtual portfolio has been set up using the 2012 final trading day close figures as a starting point and £1000 has been invested in each stock. This does not include buying fees or stamp duty and is purely intended to be used as a benchmark or summary for each week. One newspaper top ten picks for 2013 has been included to help monitor/compare against. A pi ‘polled’ top picks list (from LSE bulletin boards) has been included this year.

Week 50 stock picks summary:

Another poor weak for commodities with stocks like Kazakhmys once over £12 (feb 2012) trading at sub 200p. The last time it was this low – the world was nigh and it was Jan/Feb 2009. Astonishing to see stocks getting hammered on a weekly basis. Tullow is another. The stock is test 800p after being 1600p in April 2012! And these are (or were) FTSE100 members.

Good news for GKP holders as the CourtCase concludes with a clean sweep win and no appeal in sight. Shareholders and the company can get back to business now and attention will move to 2014. What’s the operational plan? How many wells are going to be drilled and when is the next development well due to spud etc etc. The hurdles ahead on FDP are large and it’s very rare that a small company the size of GKP sees through a prospect like Shaikan all by themselves. Investors will be keen to know how exports / production is doing and where they are with the ftse plans. With Funding in place for another 6 months, questions will soon arise again on how they are going to fund the second half of 2014.

One stock to watch in the last two weeks of Dec is Serica. It has a high impact well due to TD around or before year end and also has a big decision being awaited from BP on whether they will drill a high impact well in Namibia. This is also cited for before year end. Serica recently completed funding at 18p per share.

2 weeks left to year end and with a big fed meeting planned for w/c dec 16th, it could end up being a volatile end if QE3 taper is introduced.

Good performance by the LSE BB polled picks sees the list shoot up to second spot after spending most of the year in 3rd. Nice timing! But will it hold on?

Current standings / Week 50 Results

1. The Independent 2013 +47.19% (Weekly loss of 1.47%)
2. The LSE BB List 2013 +15.69% (Weekly gain of 2.45%)
3. TheShareHub’s 2013 B-List +10.16% (Weekly loss of 5.48%)
4. TheShareHub’s 2013 Hotlist -28.65% (Weekly loss of 2.13%)

Click on Portfolio image to enlargeIndependent week 50 LSE polled picks week 50 sharehub B-list week 50 sharehub hotlist week 50

2013 Hotlist Results – Week 49

Week 49 of 2013

Low volume across the board and a seemingly placid week. GDP across the globe seems to be heading in the right direction although europe appears to be slow out of the blocks. When the latter begins to pull clear, we might be out of the woods in terms of the last 3 years of debt concerns. That might not be until 2015, and for now is a story the market will no doubt turn back to in 2014. For the market it should be a nice canter to year end

The Dow closed the week 46pts down at 16020. The FTSE closed the week on 6521 down 99pts.

A virtual portfolio has been set up using the 2012 final trading day close figures as a starting point and £1000 has been invested in each stock. This does not include buying fees or stamp duty and is purely intended to be used as a benchmark or summary for each week. One newspaper top ten picks for 2013 has been included to help monitor/compare against. A pi ‘polled’ top picks list (from LSE bulletin boards) has been included this year.

Week 49 stock picks summary:

Not much to report in a slow week.

Still 3 weeks left to year end and positions 1 and 4 look decided. It’s all about second spot.

Will it be the highly volatile LSE BB polled picks of small caps or the more steady eddy bluechips of the sharehub b-list picks?

Current standings / Week 49 Results

1. The Independent 2013 +49.68% (Weekly gain of 0.12%)
2. TheShareHub’s 2013 B-List +15.64% (Weekly gain of 0.10%)
3. The LSE BB List 2013 +13.24% (Weekly loss of 1.90%)
4. TheShareHub’s 2013 Hotlist -26.51% (Weekly loss of 2.62%)

Click on Portfolio image to enlargeIndependent week 49 tsh b-list week 49 lse polled picks week 49 tsh hotlist week 49

2013 Hotlist Results – Week 48

Week 48 of 2013

A slow week as US thanks giving cut trading down to thin volumes. That didn’t stop US indices hitting new highs and setting more records. It’s all bluesky stuff at present.

With limited hurdles ahead in 2013, it could be a typical xmas rally heading into the last few days of what has been a terrific 2013 for markets.

Talk of QE3 and debt ceilings can wait until 2014 starts. Well, that seems the idea at present.

The Dow closed week 21pts up at 16086. The FTSE closed the week on 6651 down 23pts.

A virtual portfolio has been set up using the 2012 final trading day close figures as a starting point and £1000 has been invested in each stock. This does not include buying fees or stamp duty and is purely intended to be used as a benchmark or summary for each week. One newspaper top ten picks for 2013 has been included to help monitor/compare against. A pi ‘polled’ top picks list (from LSE bulletin boards) has been included this year.

Week 48 stock picks summary:

News was a little thin on the ground during US holiday season. The LSE polled picks yet again demonstrated the boomerang talents of the yoyo small caps. A weekly swing of around 7 to 8% seems to be the norm these days. Great trading ops for the brave and quick on the draw.

Funding stories are the usual talk of the market amongst the resource small caps as many 2014 budgets/operational plans come into focus. TRP recently dropped from 3p ranges to test 1p prior to gaining funding at that level. As if by magic, the stock is now testing 3.5p. BHR is another example. Dropped from 3p ranges after agreeing a loan notes deal and then shorted by the very own beneficiary of those loan notes (Darwin/Henderson). They got their conversion price down to just over 1p and promptly closed their short on the same day. Pelham bought Ren caps 19% stake earlier in the year for 3p. Today the sp is 1.2p and beginning to look a bit like another TRP story. Dropped for funding and then returned back to where it belongs.

Another one to watch which shares traits with the above is Serica (SQZ). Dropped from 24p ranges to get a funding deal off at 18p. The company is holding an 8.33% free carry on a high impact exploration well off the coast of Morocco. Spudded by Cairn on Oct 28th, the well is expected to TD around Dec 24th. Add to this the deadline looming for BP to accept or drop their interest in drilling a well on SQZ’s namibian licence. BP have to the end of Dec to announce their intention. SQZ also have another Morocco well due in Q1 2014 which will add some etc spice post 2013 events. Will santa be bringing Serica holders a nice pressie?

Other stocks to watch out for in December are GKP – due to conclude their CC on the 13th. Also watch out for AEY (antrim). An asset sale/sale of causeway could be due in the not too distant future and FDP submission is due via Enegi/AEY by Jan 31st 2014 on the FYNE licence.

The stock picks winner for 2013 is a foregone conclusion. The independent blue chip picks seems destined for a half bagger return. Quite astonishing. The hunt for second spot is between thesharehub’s B-list bluechip picks and the volatile LSE BB polled picks. It could go eitherway and will likely be decided on the last day of trading.

Current standings / Week 48 Results

1. The Independent 2013 +49.56% (Weekly gain of 7.34%)
2. TheShareHub’s 2013 B-List +15.64% (Weekly gain of 2.72%)
3. The LSE BB List 2013 +15.14% (Weekly gain of 6.76%)
4. TheShareHub’s 2013 Hotlist -23.89% (Weekly gain of 1.78%)

Click on Portfolio image to enlargeIndependent Week 48 TSH B-list week 48 LSE polled picks Week 48 TSh Hotlist week 48

2013 Hotlist Results – Week 47

Week 47 of 2013

The big news was saved to the end of the week as late on Sunday a variety of global powers sat down with iranian counter parts and agreed a 6 month trial deal. I say trial – as it’s pretty clear that the next 6 months will be a big test of commitment from Iran. After years of sanctions, it looks like the squeeze has worked. How this effects the region is yet unknown but certain sanctions being lifted will undoubtedly lead to economic benefits/transactions. This could cause OPEC some concerns until sure of where oil price / stability is heading. But with sources inside the US hinting that deal talks have been ongoing for sometime now with the iranians – one has to expect that all that needed to know – knew what was going on and have prepared accordingly.

The deal came just two days after the DOW had hit its highest level in its history. Closing the week above 16k is a milestone achieved but compared to the historical deals being struck in the middle east – it’s a footnote.

The Dow closed week 102pts up at 11065. The FTSE closed the week on 6674 down 19pts.

A virtual portfolio has been set up using the 2012 final trading day close figures as a starting point and £1000 has been invested in each stock. This does not include buying fees or stamp duty and is purely intended to be used as a benchmark or summary for each week. One newspaper top ten picks for 2013 has been included to help monitor/compare against. A pi ‘polled’ top picks list (from LSE bulletin boards) has been included this year.

Week 47 stock picks summary:

The LSE BB polled picks bounced back again – it’s like watching a yo-yo recently. If you feel you can trade it – then best of luck to you!

The Independent picks continued to move higher and if the traditional santa rally occurs – then a 50% (half bagger) is on the cards. It’s needs just over 7.8% gains to do it. Quite a stunning return and off the back of last years juicy gains too.

The last 5 weeks of trading are upon us and companies/investors will already be thinking about what 2014 has in store. With QE3 due to be tapered soon, it’s certainly not going to be as wholesome as 2013.

The market will need to adjust to the new format of having to work harder to grow money – no more freebies means that growth will be harder to find. In normal circumstances – a switch from blue chips to higher growth stocks would be nailed on. But with the recovery still early and banks ability to expose themselves to risk considerably reduced – it could mean a slow and luke warm switch. That said – prices in many small caps have been smashed down to very low levels – lower than 2009 in many cases. Hence – entry levels are certainly at the lower end of the risk scale compared to circa 3 years ago.

Stocks to watch out for towards year end are the following; GKP – Court case finale nears with hearing on 13th. Whilst the result is pretty much confirmed already by the judge, the appeal process is unclear. The latter could tie the company up for a further month or two which could hamper progress near term on a number of levels. But that said – the iran deal and increasingly positive political backdrop and progress of exports via Turkey should see a strong end to 2013 for GKP holders. Another stock with big news coming is Beacon Hill. As highlighted last week, the stock is at lows due largely to one player shorting the stock before agreeing an option price on convertible loans – tut tut. The FCA really ought to clamp down on this type of abuse as it’s tantamount to manipulating the market to suit another financial product which they will benefit from. BHR are due to approve the convertible loan notes on Dec 4th and thereafter potentially reneg and sort their senior lenders notes. One would expect the sp to recover quickly once the ‘players’ involved have got their options prices sorted and debt managed.

Finally, XEL has been looking lively recently on decent volume. News that Statoil have shelved or parked Bressay licence perhaps suggests that wider plans for a JV or major rethink of FDP of Bentley and Bressay is underway. There could be huge cost savings made if both got together in some form or another. So whether it’s a farm in deal, or a full takeover – one thing is sure, XEL have 250mmboe in reserves and that kind of number attracts the majors. It’s huge and if full price is paid circa $15pb, XEL stock could be in for a significant rise. However, timing is unclear and statoil could take their time in finalising their plans / discussions with DECC. And in this market, if news looks 6 months away, then the sp normally gets hammered as many leave for entertainment / growth elsewhere. Bowleven is a good example of this.

Current standings / Week 47 Results

1. The Independent 2013 +42.22% (Weekly gain of 2.87%)
2. TheShareHub’s 2013 B-List +12.92% (Weekly loss of 0.17%)
3. The LSE BB List 2013 +8.48% (Weekly gain of 5.64%)
4. TheShareHub’s 2013 Hotlist -25.67% (Weekly loss of 0.23%)

Click on Portfolio image to enlargeIndependent Week 47 TSB b-list week 47 LSE BB polled picks week 47 TSH Hotlist week 47