About – TheShareHub

Welcome to TheShareHub.

A designated information Hub for private investors to share research, views and tips on Shares/Equities.

Those familiar with posts on the investor interactive BB’s will be acutely aware that it’s hard to find one particular ‘relevant’ spot to post on and invariably those posts get knocked down the queue system pretty quick indeed on over populated BB’s. The ShareHub aims to deliver a simple and easy access Hub for all equity information. The site is very much in its embryonic stages and will, in time, develop with added features, and useful links etc

The key Features include the Hotlist, a list of ten stocks picked as star performers, plus the more spontaneous alert section ‘Heads up’ which brings into focus stocks that are moving due to TA, News or Rumour. These often move fast and the ‘Heads up’ is an alert to investors that ‘something’ could be happening. Sometimes right and sometimes wrong – the ‘Heads up’ section is not one to be missed in the hunt for the Equity holy grail – ‘Multibaggers’.

The CoffeeHouse section is a general discussion area borrowing its name from the 1690’s when trade in shares was centred around the City’s Change Alley in two coffee shops: Garraway’s and Jonathan’s signaling the beginning of the London Stock Exchange. We are a far cry from those candle lit days – but the gossip and whispers are still the same!

In time a “Tutorial” area will be added aimed at providing novice investors with links on improving and learning about investing in Equities – Jargon free where ever possible.

There is nothing more pleasing than reading investor’s/posters’ comments who have benefited and profited from previous ‘heads up’ and ‘tips’. Many have had their lives transformed through investing success – it’s great to witness and be a part of.

The Stock market is heavily weighted in favour of the institutions and the private investor has much to gain by sticking together and sharing information. Combined, the private investor is a force to rival any.

We hope you enjoy the site and look forward to adding more content/services in the future.

NOTE: The value of your investments can go down as well as up. You may not get back all the funds you invest. Please read the Risk Warning featured on the right hand sidebar.

51 Comments

KP

Hi Hub,
I would greatly appreciate your thought on the Beacon Hill Resources share. I hold considerably amount at a much higher price than what it is now. Since it is in your 2014 pick list, where would you see the share price in short term ? When this incompetent BOD sorts out senior debt facility ?

Thanks

Reply
HUB

Hi Broonsas,

The Royal Mail IPO certainly has its plaudits and fair share of nay sayers too. It’s unchartered waters in terms of using large cap ex to fund growth as previously the business hasn’t been able to compete on the same level as its competitors but has done well over the last few years.

I find the entire business model of ‘delivery’ as being a continually moving duck. It’s difficult to shoot down. When technology/digital age (email) destroyed the physical ‘letter’ most thought it would be the end of RM. But with online shopping came a boon in despatch / deliver businesses. Price hikes became possible and RM has done well out of this new competitor landscape.

But what of tomorrow? The future? What’s next? I guess that’s where ‘innovation’ because the backbone of the business. Can out think their competitors, innovate and lead rather than simply just tag along?

Time will tell.

As for the IPO. Thoughts on pricing per share will be interesting and short supply may be a barrier to the little guy, but the ii’s will likely get stuck in on the bulk of them.

Historically – these rather ‘traditional’ businesses are like large ships. They are slow to turn around and adapt. Hence, I wouldn’t expect a major re-rating or growth spurt in the future sp until the biz can prove that it can deliver top side growth using the new fire power of equity/capital.

Also worth noting, that 10%+ is going to staff so I suspect some will cash it in pretty early doors as will trust the queens head on paper more than on share certs.

Good luck with it.

Reply
monty5662

Hi hub. I hope you will also give advice when to sell your stock ideas. Of course, we should all make our own decisions but it would be nice to know

Reply
HUB

Hi Monty,

Unfortunately I am not regulated by the FSA so cannot give any ‘advice’. I can only give my views on stocks and these will vary from positive to negative depending on the businesses progress etc. I will not however be offering any sell or buy advice i’m afraid. That’s down to each investor to make his/her decision and requires the usual risk assessment and research that you would attribute to buying a house or any other large capital outlay. Sorry to be perfunctory – but rules and rules!

Reply
Steve

Hub,

You mentioned that you do not short stocks at all. Without going into detail, can I ask if you still managed to make returns during the crash in late 2007 and 2008? As you so easy profits have been available during the last 2 years during one of the biggest bull runs in history, however I would be interested to know how you approach a bear market i.e. cash in the bank so there is no need to sell, money on the side for ‘averaging down’, switching to utilities?

Keep up the good work.

Steve

Reply
HUB

Hi Steve,

In my experience, it’s often too late for many investors by the time the word ‘bear’ market has become common place. The market has a habit of shielding the truth or ignoring it. Northern rock in 2007 ring any bells? It took almost 12 months before the real storm kicked in aka Lehmans.

I use a simple a barometer called ‘value’ to get me through the recession and rebounds. When I look around and I see so many stocks that offer great value based on risk vs reward – I know i’m in a bullish market with legs. When I look around and see a small amount of ‘value’ stocks, then I know i’m in a market that might be running out of steam.

Your question is a difficult one but the common sense answer would be to convert equity holdings to cash and then wait patiently for re-entry points. Leave the shorting to the spreadbetters and traders. In Feb/March 2009, I was buying property stocks that were priced for failure. Qed at 8p stands out as one highlight. I cannot believe to this day that I was able to buy that stock at that price. 6 months later and it was trading at 240p without splits or capital raising. It could have gone horribly wrong but ‘buy when others are fearful’ certainly rang true in those times. Ironically, Buffet confessed himself to have started his buying in Nov / Dec 2008 and in some cases even earlier.

E&P stocks which are oil based can often present opportunities in bear markets as they are not cyclical or economically driven. Instead – they tend to be driven by the oil price and their ensuing discovery success. Sure, Oil is often battered down in recession periods so it’s important to keep an eye on that as well. A low oil price can often make smaller explorers prospects nigh impossible to execute on a commercial basis – never mind the typical weak cash/fund raising environments that also occur.

I feel the recovery will be slow over the next few years and as a consequence, see lower rates for sometime now – possibly touching 3% in next couple of years. I think the world banks need more time to recapitalise before eventually transfering the slosh of cash from their balance sheets back to the FEDs and BoE etc from whence it came in an orderly fashion – fingers crossed!

Reply
rhia

Hub

Great website for which many thanks.

Am a newbie and still learning, Wondered what your strategy is with regards to taking profits. Do you wait until your target is reached or do you take something off the table as gains accrue.

Thanks in advance.

Reply
HUB

I tend to top slice (take a small amount of profit) if I see a stock getting ahead of itself or I feel I need to derisk. Sometimes – it’s simply about moving some funds around to other opportunities as they arise. In 2010, I sold AST at 5p ranges as I felt it would drop back due to delays on drill program. The funds went into XEL at 40p. AST dropped back to test 3.5p a few months later and XEL tested 120p. By December, XEL had touched 420p+ and AST had recovered to test 9p ranges. So – as you can see, being dynamic and adjusting to other opportunities as they arise can work – but it’s based on my own strategy. I know of other investors that bought more AST stock at 3.5p as they felt it was way oversold. They were rewarded for their risk and confidence in the end. It doesn’t always work out that way. I tend to invest ‘long term’ but that doesn’t mean I switch off ‘long term’. Quite the opposite – I’m always looking for the next opportunity and weighing up my current holdings progress and operational performance. I often get surprised at investors that become impatient and sell up because a stock hasn’t doubled or made 50% etc. The truth is – a 10% gain is a victory in a market whereby interest rates are 0.5%. The last 2 years has spoilt many investors and made a few average ones think they are Warren Buffet. It’s clearly easier to make money in a bull market or recovery than in a bear market/recession. The key is to not become complacent and to invest according to your own risk appetite and strategy and do not over stretch yourself. Don’t go chasing the 10 baggers if it doesn’t suit your risk strategy. As an example, Ithaca Energy topped the Hotlist last year with a 103% rise. It was what I would call a ‘low’ risk stock. I’d place Nautical (npe) in that same boat too and It wouldn’t surprise me to see them deliver a 2 bagger this year. I’ve rambled on a bit too much – so will leave it there! Hope the above helps.

Reply
talltony

Hub, was wondering if you were still short on Chariot Oil and what you thought could possibly go wrong to cause this to retrace. We are expecting multiple farm ins with the next 7 weeks.

Thanks,

Reply
HUB

Hi tony,

For the record – I do not ‘short’ stocks. Best leave that to the traders. I personally don’t like ‘shorting’ but understand its merits in terms of market liquidity, CFD’s and spread betting etc.

I can see the attraction in CHAR as the asset potential is there. At just shy of £380mln market cap I’d say that quite a bit is priced in already. The only danger near term/medium term is really down to how much is priced in. Caution is required as i’m sure you would agree. Desire was a classic example of how ‘high hopes’ coupled with ‘high market caps’ can end in tears. There’s nothing certain or guaranteed about Char’s assets and they have no discoveries or production to support the current sp. On the pro’s for it, if high risk vs high reward suits the investor – then Char’s future certainly looks like a decent high risk gamble. Good luck with it.

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Nigel

I am not posting this as I am trying to push Edenville. I have never ever promoted a share on any board, and never will, but I saw it posted on their III bulletin board this morning and wonder what others make if it.

I don’t have an account with CMC but I called them and they confirmed it is correct. As we get closer to 11th February, which they confirmed is the deadline, would it not point to more falls to come?
_________________________________________________________

“This is one of the reasons for the recent excessive falls in some AIM quoted stocks.

On 21 Jan 11, CMC Markets, one of the world’s leading online CFD providers and financial spread betting companies, has de-listed ALL AIM stocks and all AIM share bets that remain open will be closed out at the closing price on 11th February 2011.

This has been causing some excessive selling in many AIM listed stocks and is worth noting if any of your AIM stocks are being hit by an unexplained sell-off as it could last until 11 Feb 11.

This is worth spreading around any other AIM listed stocks who are currently being affected by an unexplained sell-off that began around 21 Jan and will continue to 11 Feb so that fellow investors are aware of what could be going on with their investment.

This AIM de-listing was mentioned by one of their clients over on ADVFN (on 27 Jan) who must sell his position in GKP by 11 Feb 11.”

Reply
HUB

Nigel,

I think the CMC fiasco is relevant to a point but they are not the begin and end all of spread betters. Whilst it may have a marginal short term influence – longer term the sp’s of said businesses will progress based on operational performance and not CFD or spread betting positions etc.

Certainly one to be aware of but also not one to hang ‘all’ sp woes upon.

Reply
Nigel

I have been keeping an eye on Edenville Energy (EDL) for some time now. The are currently just over 2p having been down to 0.5p and as high as 2.5p.

They recently announced a coal find at Rukwa and another at Mkomolo in Tanzania. Both are of good thermal quality. It may not be gold or oil but China and India, to name but two, will need a lot more coal in the future and the price has been rising.

They are now changing to a drill that will allow them to go deeper and are also extending their surveying. There is no resource estimate yet.

Have you come across them in your research Hub, and if so do you have any views please?

Reply
HUB

I’m aware of EDL but prefer BHR as a coal play. Don’t underestimate the value of Coal. Coal is expected to be a big play in 2011 especially after the recent Aussie floods.

Reply
Deno007

Hello Hub, Great site and use it more and more for your Heads up, spending less time reading through lots of posts on iii which suits me fine. I just wondered if you had any views on seasonality. As in we have a down push on oil in January and then a push up again in Feb. Gold and silver normally start to fall late Feb but have started early this year, does any of this affect your trading strategy for exit or entry points in any way or do you ignore these matters.
Cheers in advance
Deno

Reply
HUB

Hi Deno,

I think traders certainly take note of any seasonal trends – but investors tend to look longer term. That said – I largely ignored the ‘sell in may’ market mantra in 2010 and had I followed it – would have made a nice exit and re-entry.

The market is full of historic reference points and every year that passes either breaks one of mirrors another etc. In a nut shell, if you highlight many historic benchmarks or reference points – some will always come in right.
I try and focus on the business / company which I am invested in and view their sensitivity to commodity prices against my growth forecast. It’s important to keep an eye on.

Reply
Deno007

Thanks Hub, i realise that the question was probably a bit silly for long term investing, just wondered what views you had on the subject. I go for long term, but am in a few gold and silver plays which are in very nice profit, but obviously been directly affected by the sell off lately and am very tempted to sell out and buy back in a few months. Still learning lol.
Thanks for the reply
Deno

Reply
Steve

Hub,
Where can I find your original write up on the 2011 hotlist. Can only find weekly updates? Sorry for the trouble but its nice to remind myself of why I invested. Also, will the list have any future sell or recommended updates if required?

Reply
Steve

Thanks Hub.

P.S. Great website and I am very grateful to your tips over the last 2 years.

Steve

Reply
abso

Hub, the new website is looking great. Having benefited greatly from you posts/tips on III (both financially and through learning) I just wanted to say thanks and keep up the good work.

Whilst I’m here, did you ever run your eye over LON:RMM? I think in could be an interesting copper play in 2011. The Chairman recently bought another 500k shares @ 32.9p and Gartmore have just have taken a 5% holding.

I’d be interested to know your thoughts on them?

Cheers
abso

Reply
flyingbytheseat

Hub,

We have set up a Virgin giving page for any current or past Xcite shareholders. The idea is just to give alittle back for the brilliant way in which the BOD treated us todate. http://uk.virginmoneygiving.com/team/xcite the charity selected is the RNLI, selected for its closeness to the sea and generally for its brave people. Can you if possible bring it to peoples attention as I know alot of share holders are probably coming through here.

fbts

Reply
Andivestor

Hub, Thanks for a good site and suggestions. I first came across you earlier in 2010 when researching some ideas. I have been investing off and on for 42 years, and we seem to have some overlap on the commodity front. Good Luck for 2011.

Reply
applejack1923

Hi Hub

Your site is now reachable again. Unless you made any changes then like I mentioned on the iii board it must have been a network issue.

Reply
merlinjay

Hya Hub, just found your site this morning and must say how refreshing it is to see sensible factual and informative information. Always found your comments with others like topshare etc to be most informative. I am new to shares and hold ATC,AUL,BMR,CAD,EDL,MXP,OTC,RRR, and GGP. Early days yet but more than holding my own at the moment. Looking to learn and will follow your site with interest, Keep up the good work.

Merlinjay

Reply
HUB

hi merlinjay,

thxs merlinjay. Glad you like it – it should improve in time – early days at the mo.

Reply
DiceMan

Hub,

I’d be really interested in the Tutorial area – I am decent investor – no Warren Buffet yet. I do believe you never stop learning and I learned from following you on iii over the past year.

Good work, and I like the line in the preamble about sticking together and the PI can be a force against anyone, which nicely underlines what the http://www.thesharehub.com is all about – in my view

Cheers
Dice

Reply
HUB

DiceMan,

I was reaching for the blue tick up button and quickly realised there wasn’t one! TheShareHub is very much in its embryonic stages and it’s ‘content’ focussed and not ‘advertising’ or ‘click’ driven. It’s content focussed/shared knowledge that makes us all more informed. There’s no greater ‘buzz’ than to share information/research and see all those involved do well. As this site is monitored I hope other ‘quiet’ posters step up to the plate and impart their views without fear of having their heads bitten off! But don’t get me wrong – this is not an Oasis for bluesky dreamers – I want to see debate, discussion and all views shared.
I best get off my soap box now especially after the rather nice bottle of red this evening! Big day tomorrow as we kick off the 2011 LSE, but worth remembering it is just one day, out of about (rough guess) 250 trading days. Long way to go!

Reply
rbobalino

Hi Hub,

Many thanks for your informative posts regarding XEL. I will be visiting your website on a regular basis. Since I live in Canada and trade only on the TSX, I was thrilled to see that CAZ and IAE made the 2011 HotList.

Rob

Reply
HUB

Welcome rob, look forward to discussing caza, xel and iae in more depth this year as with many of the other stocks on the hotlist and future heads ups.

With so many bears in Canada it’s nice to have bull on board!

Reply
Billy

HNY! Hub
Been a silent consumer of your largesse for a few years through iii/koep and want to publicly thank you for the great work you do. Delighted with your site and wish you the best.
Billy

Reply
HUB

thxs Billy,

Looking forward to sharing all the highs, euphoria, lows and bruises with fellow pi’s this year – together we have a knowledge base far superior than many Institutional outfits. Why? Because we care. Because we suffer the highs and lows ‘personally’ and not on behalf of clients. And most of all, we stick together and we don’t expect to be bailed out when our calls go horribly wrong!

Power to the Pi!

HUB

Reply
carnivale

good & promising site

is it going to be restricted to oilers ?

great believer in GKP
but have greater exposure in AGL (wd be happy to share my research)
also RNVO (both biotech exposure )

all the best

Reply
Doubleorquits

Hub

Like a few of the guys on iii boards you are on the trusted list NOT linked to ramping or deramping of shares.

One thing, on a quick scan of your site I can’t see a mailing list option to receive notification of updates / heads up tips? Is this on the cards? (dare I mention like BMD’s site which does give good tips based on newsflow on the AIM Market) Any public opinion on BMD?

Just FY and others Information I am heavily into BMR, after gaining great confidence after attending the AGM I believe they are potentially huge…the start of their rise following the imminent acquisition followed by the JORC resource confirmation and further acquisition targets in 2011.

Happy New Year

Reply
flyingbytheseat

Hub,

Great web site, nice clean and to the point. Exactly what us new people to the oil / investing game need.

GL

fbts

Reply
Stormcat

You know what is going to happen with your share tips from now on HUB ? The shares will rocket for a few days as everyone tries to jump on board. Guess i will sit back and wait for the dust to settle. p.s do me a favour and tip the stocks i already own !!!

Reply
HUB

Stormcat,
Quite a few tips from other posters made on thesharehub seem to have done very well over the last few days.
I agree – there will be some added coverage/interest – but the hotlist is not for a day and is accountable for the year. Quite a tricky thing to predict as many companies can have great first half progress and poor second half etc.
You should always trade according to your own strategy and research etc and not chase share prices just because they are rising etc. Value always wins through in the end but I agree optimism and sentiment can create a very different view.

Reply
Sandra Kennedy

Interesting looking at your comments re IMG, I held these many many years ago when they were known as Videologic and sold at a nice profit to fund an American holiday. I started to look again some months ago but due to family illness didn’t pursue it. Would it be possible for anyone to give me an update/outllook when they have time? Many thanks

Reply
HUB

Yes – I remember the videologic days fondly. Long live the Dreamcast! That was IMG’s savour back then. Boy have times changed for them now.

Update / outlook would be best achieved by a trip to the IMG BB on iii. I know Dave and a few others are still posting great things over there.

Reply
Sandra Kennedy

Am enjoying the site Hub, I have read so many of your posts on various boards but I never post myself for various reasons.
I am a long term holder of Dana(12p days) now firmly following Tom Cross at PMG, Premier Oil, Petrofac, AUL, AST, NPE, Encore, Enquest, RXP and of course GKP. Many might think I ignore all the rules by investing only in oil and to some extent that is very true but just to add variety I also hold SXX ! I did once play with Tesco and Vodafone but couldn’t stand the boredom.
Oil makes the world go round, never forget that. Look forward to enjoying posts on this site.

Sandra

Reply
HUB

welcome Sandra,

you’ve got a good mix there and I understand your point regarding Tesco and Vod etc. However, sometimes the boring ones are safer and more secure. When a market is rebounding fast – it’s often the smaller caps that see greater growth due to more retail/pi risk appetite. I am also waiting on Mr Cross’s masterplan for PMG although I don’t hold many shares now after slicing quite few over the last few days.

Reply
Norm

Hi Hub,

Thanks for your posts. I wonder how many realize the potential of Rocksource. This Norwegian oil exploration company appears a well respected concern in the industry and has an impressive folder of drills coming up. Surely one for your ‘headsup’. (Oslo stock exchange). Perhaps you can add your comment as it is off bb radar.

Reply
talisin

Hi Norm,

I’m interested in trading 3-5 commodity shares on the Oslo Bors, preferably in a 2:1 oil:mining ratio. However I have almost no knowledge of this index, or ability to research here, but have some NKr parked in a bank account earning diddlysquat! Would appreciate any tips you can provide.

Reply
5 Iron

Hub, here is my hot list for you to look over- probably not a million miles from anyone elses.

12 Oils
Top 4 1. GKP, 2. XEL – Isa, 3. BLVN, 4. IAE – Isa,

These are a lot cheaper and all offer a worthy gamble without risking the house and more upside potential than downside.
CAZA -Isa, RRL -Isa, BPC, DPL, MXP, MTA, AST, VOG

4 Coal
ANR, GCM & POL, EDL, -all exciting long term projects

3 Minerals
AMC, HER, FDI maybe AGQ – not big into gold, me- think price can only come down from where it is long term

Property
QED, CAL, WKP – bad year last year for property – must improve surely! Prices are low to get in at.

——————————————————————————–

Reply
BarnBrian

Also a note of thanks to you for your sound advice. Holding mainly GKP but sadly missed out on Excite as my HSBC account couldn’t recognise the company for some reason.

Reply
roninja

Hub have followed your advise in 2010 having remembered your IMG postings. Your focus on oil and gas, commodities has proven inspired and has seen vast gains for in the likes of GKP, XEL, SXX and others. Good research is what I love and a place to share findings hopefully for mutual benefit.

Reply
HUB

roninja – that takes me back! IMG one of my favs and I have absolute admiration for the long termers that stuck with IMG.

At 38p the stock looked dead and buried. A few years later and it’s touching £3+ and £4 no doubt soon. IMG is an excellent example of ‘keeping the faith’ and ignoring the sp. Eventually value always shines through.

Reply
Nick

Hi just wanted to say thanks. I first noticed your postings on the ithaca site having been in there since just under 22p….. i took notice of a couple of your posts and subsequently got into Ascent @3.8p and more importantly excite @64.45p. i look forward to seeing this site flourish. Good luck! Great site by the way

Reply
Jon Hooper

Hub Just a quick note to say what a great thing to do for your followers, I started investing very modestly 18 months ago, I have followed
your tips and learnt alot along the way. Just a big thanks from myself and hope you have a great Christmas and new year. Jon

Reply

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