ShareHub Hotlist 2018 Review – Week 24

Week 24 certainly didn’t lack spice. Exactly what the casino needed as things were becoming a little dull.  Dull makes small coin… Volatility makes big coin. H1 enters its final phase of 2018 bringing with it, Mega Trade wars, Footy fever and Tesla paranoia. Apparently Elon Musk and Tesla are under attack…

“As you know, there are a long list of organizations that want Tesla to die,” Musk said. He referenced Wall Street short sellers “who have already lost billions of dollars,” oil and gas companies that “don’t love” to see solar power and electric cars advancing, and automakers that produce gasoline and diesel vehicles. “If they’re willing to cheat so much about emissions, maybe they’re willing to cheat in other ways?” he said.

Too true Elon. The world is a tricky place when you are single handedly driving change – change for the good. It’s astonishing in this modern day that the likes of VW have not been banged up and the company closed down after Dieselgate. It puzzles me why the US are able to rack up a $30bln bill and force VW to pay it but in Europe (and particularly the UK) litigation is almost unheard of. Well not quite… Slater & Gordon are on the brink of getting VW into court on behalf of over 60,000 owners. UK lawyers are bringing a series of allegations, including that Volkswagen manufacturers defrauded drivers, and that “defeat devices” broke EU rules. Subsequent VW software fixes have from what it seems caused other problems with cars. All in all drivers overpaid for vehicles and are left with a Brand that is no longer trusted.

‘Trust’ is fast becoming the trending word of late as North Korea and US puts its trust in getting a deal agreed which ironically may see a similar scenario to that of Iran. And we all know how that ended up. The trouble with ‘trust’ is that it is only worth a 4/5 year US election term and that’s assuming the acting President isn’t impeached along the way. ‘Trust’ often comes from proven results. Delivering on ones promise. Confidence. But it only takes a wobble here and there and ‘Trust’ goes out of the window. Just ask David De Gea. Do you stick with a butterfingered goalie or replace him with a new one? Trump has achieved some decent deals of late through a bully boy approach but his recent battle with China could be his butterfingered moment. Markets were bolstered by Trump’s America First and keen business drive. The DOW has indeed risen from 18k levels to test 26k levels earlier in the year. But in a trade war, especially one that is protracted, business ultimately suffers due to uncertainty. Just look at Brexit and the subsequent collapse of the UK economy. Markets are right to be concerned as Trump v China will ripple across the globe. Some will benefit from the tariffs and others will suffer. Trumps previous strategies has been to turn on the Tariff taps and then wait for negotiations. Usually these take place pretty swiftly. Then turn off the taps. But here’s the problem. China may not be able to match US $200bln tariff’s as their US quota is more like $130bln at best. But what China can do is drag it out. A long trade war would likely see Trump fall on his sword. China know how to hurt the US, but thankfully are holding fire in the hope that ‘negotiations’ can be completed in the near future. In the meantime, the longer it goes on, the worse it will get. The DOW will find support at 23,500 levels but below 23k and it’s going to be bear market time. In that scenario, 18k is more than possible and the Casino likes that.

Commodities yet again were clouted in week 24. A combination of OPEC fears combined with rising Dollar has put an end to the recent bullish sentiment. OPEC are set to meet tomorrow through to 22nd June to agree output increases. A modest increase of 600kbopd is not exactly going to fill the void left by Iran or Venezuela. Furthermore, After months and months of higher oil prices, the US rig count is beginning to look weak. Where are the new rigs? On a scrap heap somewhere after Dec 2014 OPEC actions is one guess. The reality is US production has increased to record breaking levels but there comes a point where the infrastructure simply cannot keep up. Workforces become hard to recruit. Rigs hard to find. Pipeline materials and backlogs all keep advances in check. The next few months will test out US shale’s ability to scale up in a space that has very little room left. That in itself may well enable OPEC to increase production again in Dec 2018 without making a dent in demand.

Week 24 Current positions:

The DailyMail continues to do well. The ShareHub top ten commodity picks are suffering. It’s astonishing that Gold has not spiked higher on risk off trades. It’s normally the go-to metal when equities look bearish. HUM are well placed to benefit from POG’s rises in the future and the stock is long overdue a return to test 40p levels. AMER has struggled with lower production and delays on exploration plans. The latter should be finally kicking off in July (H2) which should place a rocket under the share price upon any good news. Trading and volumes of late have been higher than usual on AMER which could suggest that the long term large HNWI seller may be nearing an end.

Heads up stock picks PDL, OPHR and MATD are doing ok with MATD having just raised £13.7m in a placing. The first of 6 high impact exploration wells should spud in July which has been a long time coming. Exciting times ahead for MATD holders.

For now, all eyes on OPEC this week!

DailyMail 2018 Week 24
ShareHub hotlist 2018 week 24
Guardian 2018 week 24

ShareHub Hotlist 2018 Review – Week 23

Another week passes and another UK retailer goes down. Poundworld has gone from selling products for £1 to ironically being sold lock, stock and barrel for £1. If the high street was a cliff, most retailers would be on the verge of going over it. Its an ever eroding cliff face. The sea of change comes in the form of a global digital tidal wave. It’s been on the cards for a few years now. The sad thing is, it probably won’t be too long before the ‘digital’ becomes the ‘bricks and mortar’ as branded Amazon stores start appearing in the high street. Stores which you can ‘instantly’ purchase what you require rather than waiting for 1 day delivery or a drone to drop your purchase off. That’s to come later. I have no issue with digital retail commerce, it brings with it many benefits. However, I do have a major issue with the likes of Amazon, Apple and Google paying minimal tax in the regions they trade in. Yes they generate some UK jobs but those jobs are not replacing the many UK retail job losses. In terms of taxes – it’s a massive issue that needs addressing. Trump and co are protecting American interests across the globe and it’s about time the EU and UK started slapping some firm ‘digital’ tax laws on these big American companies.

Last week saw the long and established London Stock Market wobble. Embarrassing for the LSE. More blushes were felt when news materialised that the FCA/LSE will press ahead with a controversial new premium listing to facilitate the Saudi Aramco IPO deal. Shameful stuff and just shows how greed drives mentality at the expense of credibility. Years of tradition and rules can be changed in a whisker if it means a decent pay day. Integrity ‘shot’ on that one but assuming all involved get a sniff of that $1 trillion due to hit the market it will make for a good bonus year. That said, it would not surprise me one bit if the vampire squid (GS) took the bulk of the order book as Trump and co has been cosying up with the Saudi’s of late. Certainly going to be an interesting IPO when it finally hits the market… next year?

Week 23 Review

Much of the same and a little like watching paint dry of late. I’m afraid the impending summer period is not likely to improve ‘market activity’ so best enjoy the sunshine and the footy over the coming weeks. The DailyMail continues to head the pack but TheShareHub has plenty in reserve for a strong H2. Top picks like AMER, HUM, CERP, PMO, TLW and so on should all do well as the drill bit turns and PoO continues to show strength. M&A is still missing in action but it might not be too long before the big super majors start picking off the little guys with large reserves. Ophir Energy looks primed like a T-bone on a sunny day. Keep you eyes on that one. Shell lost out on Cove Energy a while back and may well fancy taking OPHR out simply to gain a greater control/equity stake in Tanzanian assets. Due to being heavily oversold after the Fortuna Schumberger debacle, Ophir Energy is looking cheap especially based on potential production of 25kboepd post acquisition terms. Therefore, TheShareHub is initiating coverage on OPHR at 50p with a target on takeover being £1+. This is the 3rd heads up stock this year following MATD and PDL. There will be 5 heads up picks in 2018 with the latter 2 arriving exclusively in the email box of all ShareHub Subscribers.


ShareHub Hotlist 2018 Review – Week 22

Another bonkers week out there in the floating bubble we call the world. From Sleeping tablets that induce racist rants to butter fingered goal keepers and last but not least…Journo’s faking news. Not sure the last one is anything new but it certainly had Putin and his buddies jumping for joy. Off the hook on that one it would appear unless of course he had a twin brother…

Last week apparently saw the weight of Oil shorts vs longs via hedge funds swing in favour of shorts for the first time in 3 months. Hence, you should expect the usual plethora of negative news stories to be circulating as the Hedge funds seek to maximise their positions and play with your mind. The truth is… with Oil near 3 to 4 year highs, you really would expect the US rig count to be higher. Yes it is rising, but it’s a country mile away from where it was when Oil was last trading in the $80’s. OPEC are set to meet up on June 22nd and if any past meetings are to go by, the headline news should be known a day or so before the official release. Calls to raise output are being confused with a yearly increase in supplies. The reality is, OPEC are already millions of barrels down due to issues in Libya, Venezuela and soon to be ‘IRAN’. Increasing output should not be seen as a negative – quite the opposite. This is not about flooding the market, but more about avoiding $100pb+. The Saudi’s have said for sometime now that they are keen on $75pb to $80pb ahead of their world first Saudi Aramco IPO set for next year. Keeping the range steady is an opportunity for OPEC to test the market out. Unfortunately the casino style market we trade and invest in is more about making money from wild swings than steady ships. The idea that Oil could trade in a tight range for the next 2 years+ would be enough to put some hedge funds out of business. Too much fun has been had over the last 4 years (or ten) and it would be healthy for all involved (US Oil Industry included) if some kind of formal agreement to support oil pricing at a set range could be drawn up. That would mean some kind of cap on US production too which might raise some eyebrows. But the fact is, it might be better making money from a steady $70pb to $80pb range for 5 years+ than a range of $80pb one year and $50pb the next. US shale ironically ‘needs’ a steady market to ensure investment returns. Without the latter, it’s possible that US production could begin to decrease in the future even with PoO in the $70’s. The fight for market share is decades long and I doubt it will disappear anytime soon but playing the ‘long’ game might help all involved plan for the future, a future which at present looks heavily under supplied due to lack of new projects and developments. Whilst PoO will consolidate before and after June 22nd, the bearish case for Oil has all but gone. It’s now more about what price is best for a barrel…over the next 18months… $75pb or $85pb (Brent). Catalysts such as Iranian sanctions should keep the PoO shorts tight.

Week 22 Review:

The Daily Mail top picks open up a small lead which is an impressive turnaround after being 10% down earlier in the year. That’s almost a 20% swing. The Guardian picks demonstrate a more familiar flat and boring bluechip market symptomatic of being near all time highs. The slow summer period is already upon us and news is light. TheShareHub top ten look solid but a few picks are still short of where they ought to be. Big news should be coming from CERP and HUM – both should confirm cash flow positive positions are increasing via greater production volumes. Outside the top ten picks TheShareHub’s 2 x heads up picks for the year are PDL and MATD. The delayed/disputed diamond sale has hit Petra Diamonds hard and last week saw the launch of a discounted rights issue. In theory, once the RI has been done, the company should be in good shape again. It might take sometime for the dust to settle but I would expect to see PDL back above 90p before year end. And finally, MATD… the minnow on the verge of super major sized exploration is just weeks away now from first spud of a whopping 4 x exploration well programme. The market should wake up a little once a firm spud date in July has been confirmed. At 11.5p, it has the potential to double in price and that’s before any discovery is made. Risks remain but with 4 drills in total, surely they can bag a big one. Don’t rule out a late farm in deal either… the recent Results RNS seemed to hint that partners are still being sought even though the company is fully funded. Interesting.

ShareHub Hotlist 2018 Review – Week 21

Week 21 concluded. Just another 5 weeks to go to H2. Thus far, we’ve had the euphoric extended santa party in early Q1 followed pretty swiftly with a market wash out which saw 1000pt day to day swings on the DOW. The dust has since settled, but the present market mentality is to ‘over-react’ to twitter/media headlines and then under-react to the real factual news. It’s not uncommon to see some jumpiness after such a bullish run. Take the recent pullback on PoO from $80pb to $75pb (Brent). Nothing goes up in a straight line so some profit taking was always going to take place at some point. But what followed across many commodity focused equities was way overdone. PMO as an example dropped around 30% based on a mere 6% decline in PoO. Tullow performed better yet still suffered a significant 15% slide. It might take a few more gyrations yet before the markets get some genuine alignments to higher PoO pricing which looks set to remain for the duration of 2018 or certainly through to the Saudi Aramco IPO. Post that massive event (world’s largest IPO), it is anyones guess.

Another week passes and another non-event for Mrs May and Brexit. The stalwarts in Brussels will have had their eyes on what’s being served up closer to home. Italian Spaghetti laced with popular toppings or Spanish fiery chorizo spiced tapas. It would appear that the EU has enough on its plate for now. Brexit, Texit or Spexit. It’s not going to end well no matter how you cut it. Elsewhere Mr Moon seems to have stolen Trumps thunder by rescuing the Korean talks. The market doesn’t like uncertainties, so issues such as Iranian sanctions and Korean talks will dominate near term. It tends to go a little quiet during World Cups almost as if there is a global political truce in place while the beautiful game gets played out. So don’t be surprised to see the usual summer malaise kick in. Issues around Putin (or Russia) seem to be eerily quiet. Although the owner of Chelski seems to have found the UK less than helpful when gaining a new UK visa. Easily solved… just head off to Israel and get a new citizenship. Surely Mrs May and co will not be side-footed by such shenanigans? Well, the UK Gov have been aware of Russian cash making its way through the City of London for decades and thus far not a lot has been done about it. Shocking really.

Week 21 review:

Yet again, the Daily Mail top 8 picks performed well while the ShareHub commodity focused top picks consolidated after some hefty gains. It’s neck and neck between these two. The Guardian picks suffered further but are still 0.5% up for the year. TheShareHub top ten picks quick fire summary below:

1. AMER – Poor H1 performance to date and large seller still dumping stock. But recovery from lows looks solid leaving decent upside ahead upon upcoming drilling success. Note: Dusters are also possible.

2. CERP – Next Quarterly update eagerly awaited especially on Production. Share price is 7% down for the year which leaves plenty of upside ahead based on playing catch up nevermind operational progress. The company hasn’t put a foot wrong so the static sp is a puzzle.

3. CORA – Decent exploration results. Next phase requires more cash hence another placing should be on its way or some other deal/arrangement?

4. HUM – Need to see a quarter or two of solid cashflows before market will mark up the share price to where it should be circa 60p+. Exploration phase to kick off soon providing near term catalysts along with shiny Gold coin sales. Plenty of upside in H2 assuming exploration phase goes well and cash continues to roll in as planned.

5. PFC – After the Barclays SFO debacle, it’s surprising to see PFC still suffering from this issue but until it is resolved.. the market will slap on a discount. RollsRoyce came through just fine and PFC should follow. Ops look on track.

6. PMO – Catcher going very well. High impact Mexico exploration around the corner and debt beginning to reduce. Cash flows pouring in with PoO in the $70’s and $80’s. The only surprise is that the SP is still sub 150p. After the Solan debacle, one can’t blame the market for taking the cautious view.

7. PVR – Barryroe looks set for a 2019 story rather than 2018 which is a disappointment. That said, booking an advance ticket ahead of that entertainment might prove fruitful as the stock looks cheap based on future plans.

8. SQZ – Needs to get more clarity on 50% Iranian owned assets but even placing these aside the cash flows should look solid for 2018. Plenty to do across their folio in 2018.

9. SOLG – Needs an updated MRE as the market is beginning to ignore the monthly resource updates no matter how great they are. Investors want to see planning for the future in tandem. Large development plans cannot be defined until full resource known but some kind of indication on an early commercial (smaller) development to bring in cash flows would be welcome.

10. WRES – Apart from the usual development issues, progress has been slow since the funding deal. The company nomad missed the fact that one of WRES’s largest shareholders appears to have failed to file accounts and as such has been struck off. Whilst WRES did update on this matter, it has yet to be finalised with the 6% holding being held by the Crown. Just how much do these nomads get paid these days? Spanish politics important to WRES so something to keep an eye on.

More updates to follow on the above ‘as and when’ the news rolls in.

ShareHub Hotlist 2018 Review – Week 20

A good week for all 2018 picks including the newspaper tipsters. It feels rather buoyant out there at present with the sun shining and Commodity stocks flying. But spare a thought (not for too long mind you) for Kairos hedge fund. They made roughly £150m shorting Carillion (approx) and then got smacked for six on Ocado to the tune of much the same… £150m+ (roughly). Win some and lose some? Looking at the timing of trades, it wasn’t a slow build decision. Someone somewhere at Karios decided that a hefty short on Ocado was a good idea. Now… as many know… ‘apparently’ the Carillion collapse was telegraphed to ‘some’ lucky bods months in advance tut tut. I doubt the FCA will have them by the necks but suffice to say, Carillion was a free short bet for some. I’m not suggesting that Karios had a heads up on Carillion’s precarious position but merely highlighting that shorting Carillon may not have been as inspired as it first appears. Looking at the woeful short position decision on Ocado, one would assume Karios’ luck ran out or they got some duff info… ouch. Shorting the big grocery/ supermarkets might have seemed like a good idea some months ago, but after Sainsbury/Asda pulled the rug under more spiv shorting hedge funds, you’d think some would have learned their lesson. When it comes to village idiots, Karios are not the only ones. Marshall Wace seem to be picking wrong bets more times than a punter on a fixed odds betting machine. Perhaps the EU should introduce a law to reduce Hedge Funds shorts to a minimum punt of £2 per stock? Now wouldn’t that be a great idea? Save them losing clients money and abusing the market on a daily basis? To be balanced, we all make good calls and bad. It’s never nice when you score at both ends. The Casino has a habit of getting your money off you even after its dished out some carrots. So just because you’ve made a few good calls of late and suddenly think you’re warren buffet, just remember, today’s market is at all time highs, the recent bullish run on equities is fundamentally down to low interest rates and QE. If you can’t make a few quid in this market, then you are definately in the wrong place.

After a few years of hanging off a cliff by its toenails, Premier Oil finally surges higher. The catcher development is a story about a field that plateaued at the right time. After PMO’s Solan development disaster, it will come with much cheer to investors who have been subjected to a helter skelter ride. PMO look out of the woods for now and based on past valuations, the market has still left some headroom to fill. 180p+ looks a fair level to ‘plateau’ through 2018 summer period. 2017 ShareHub pick ‘Tullow’ has also bounced back. The bots and Algo’s are really struggling to balance the upward movement of these stocks while trying to contain the major Indices. It’s all linked in some form or another. Considering the FTSE100 is notoriously ‘commodity’ heavy, it’s surprising the 8000 level has not been broken already. Looking at the next reshuffle the FTSE100 and FTSE250 could see many of the blackgold (and Gas) producers coming back into the mix. It wouldn’t hurt to pay attention to the admission / valuation criteria on some stocks like Premier Oil, historically, funds are forced to buy in upon entry and this often brings with it higher volumes, a different type of investor and solid spikes. Not always… but often.

Elsewhere… Gold has wobbled of late and looks odds on to bounce higher once the Hedge funds have had their fill. Risk factors are still very high across the Mena region but in other global parts issues over North Korea have reduced and it’s all gone eerily quiet over Russia. With the World Cup kicking off in Moscow in just under 4 weeks time, it’s going to be a precarious time for all involved. Hence it comes as no surprise to see tensions reduced ahead of this global televised bonanza. The media, sponsors and advertising channels have all invested billions into this event so important not to shoot themselves in the foot! First game up is OPEC vs NON-OPEC.

Congrats to Megan and Harry. Due to the unseasonable UK weather, Harry was not the only red top gleaming on the day. A few scorched followers will have been reaching for the calamine lotion on Sunday. Blighty was sparkling in every way as media channels beamed across the globe. Bodes well for Carney and co so I wouldn’t rule out an August Rate rise just yet.

And finally… ShareHub subscribers will be aware that due to GDPR regs, a new Privacy Policy is in place. To all non-subscribers, you may notice consent boxes appearing across the site. Please also read the new Privacy Policy. TheShareHub takes your privacy very seriously. As a ‘free’ site with no advertising or any form of revenue stream, TheShareHub is non-commercial and unlike Facebook or Twitter or Amazon etc etc TheShareHub does not seek to track you down or use your data in dark ways. The ‘Subscription button’ on TheShareHub has been temporarily removed (don’t panic) but will be reinstated on May 26th. More features are planned for ShareHub subscribers which may include a newsletter with 1 or 2 added ‘heads up’ stocks of interest.

Week 20 Review:

Stunning performance from the DailyMail picks which has turned a 10% decline some weeks ago into a 7.3% profit. The Algo’s are dragging every cat and dog up in the FTSE off the back of the commodity recovery. In theory that should begin to rebalance as blue chips get sold off and commodity stocks replace them. That said, never a bright idea to have all eggs in one basket so some diversification never goes amiss. A good recovery from AMER helped the ShareHub picks rise to 13% and that’s with weak performances from HUM, PFC, SQZ and WRES thrown in. When (or IF) these stocks finally buck the trend and surge higher, the ShareHub picks should be out of sight. For the moment, hats off to the DailyMail for putting in a fight. The Guardian picks are perhaps an example of how the blue chips (in general) are being parked while money finds its way into more ‘popular’ stocks.

Week 20 positions below:

ShareHub Hotlist 2018 Review – Week 19

June 23rd 2016 – Ring any bells? For those cheering for a Brexit the date is etched in stone and of equivalent importance to that of 1966 to all English Football followers. The latter will know all too well just how painful it feels to achieve a great victory only then to spend the next decade or five waiting for the next victory to come along. If someone had said in 1966 that it would be another 52years+ before England would look like standing another chance of winning the World cup, they would have been laughed at. Almost 2 years on after Brexit and you can almost feel the frustrations beginning to boil. After the initial stunned responses from all parties involved, the EU and UK locked horns in a battle over terms and details. It’s complicated. Don’t get me wrong. This is no easy feat. But lets get real here. The Conservative government has had almost 2 years to arrive at a customs / trade agreement and as yet, all appear clueless. In a world dominated by digital media and virtual ‘borders’ one would think a solution would be as easy as a few clicks of a mouse. A decent facial recognition system that can scan through a few balaclavas would also not go a miss. TheShareHub mentioned a few months ago that it felt like all involved were dragging their feet… delaying the inevitable in the hope that public sentiment may change in favour of remaining or better described as a ‘Soft Brexit’. It looks like a Brexit, waddles like a Brexit, quacks like a Brexit… but is actually a few EU regs away from being a ‘REMAIN’. At present, the writing looks like it’s on the wall… and any timeframe agreed 1 year ago looks like slipping into 2020. There are even some experts out there citing 2026 as being a potential clear break point. That’s only another 2 world cups away… so you never know, England’s football team may well hold the Golden globe above their heads before Brexit finally happens. The chances of either happening before March 2019 looks highly unlikely. In the meantime, the UK economy slows to almost zero. The all important UK property market dropped by 3% in April against a -0.3% expectation. It was a shocker and carefully played down by all media sponsored outlets. Blame it on the beast from the east? Well, considering March, April and May are supposed to be the strongest periods for the UK housing market, it doesn’t bode well for the quieter months come July, Aug and Sept. Added to this, the woeful weather also took the blame for a 3%+ drop in retail sales. UK commuters will know the danger of a few leaves on the tracks, but who would have thought a few snow flakes would have turned Mr Carney’s BoE rate cut plans to slush? Whilst the weather has not helped, the real ‘beast from the east’ is indeed the EU. The dangers of protracted Brexit discussions are now being broadly felt across the UK and the EU. Uncertainty is a killer of sentiment. Unless some clarity begins to appear, it’s just going to get worse and that ultimately means more QE and a return to rate cuts rather than rate increases. The recent ‘kicking the hornets nest’ by the US in the MENA region has brought with it more uncertainty across the globe but also higher commodity prices which in turn cause higher inflation concerns. OPEC have been kind. Between OPEC and Russia, they have carefully rebalanced the world’s supply against demand over a 3 year period giving countries/governments across the globe an opportunity to grow out of a recession. But lets not forget where PoO was and where it is today. PoO (Brent) was trading at $105pb just 4 years ago. Today, Brent is trading close to $79pb. Even at $90pb, it’s still a decent 15% shy from 2014 levels and that’s against growing global demand. The worst may be yet to come. Whilst US shale is able to scale up swiftly, it is also fast to decline. It might just keep coming or it could hit a patch whereby replenishing supply takes a little longer. The certainty of delayed projects and limited supplies is more apparent across NON OPEC supplies. The North Sea as well as many other areas across the globe have seen development projects shelved. It could take years before significant new production streams hit the market. All points to higher Crude/Brent prices in 2018 and this will either be compounded by Iranian sanctions or alleviated by higher Saudi/Russian production. One thing is sure… PoO is being nicely polished ahead of the Saudi Aramco IPO. After Trump’s recent helpful actions, it would not surprise me one bit to see the Saudi’s appoint Goldman Sachs/BoA and co as the leading book runners for the world’s largest IPO. The commissions alone in handling a deal like this dwarf any normal market action in any given year. I suspect the LSE will benefit too but assuming the above, it is likely to be peanuts compared to the US companies. Plenty of ‘back scratching’ going on out there at present and to his credit, Mr Trump is making UK and EU look a bit like naive kids at their first day at school. If the UK and EU are going to get anywhere fast over the next decade, it will be by working with each other… the sooner the better.

Week 19 Review:
Strong recoveries continue across the newspaper picks as the bluechips get hauled up with the algo bots chasing the FTSE higher off the back of strong commodities. The latter is due a breather but assuming there is a continued switch out of retail sectors/banking etc, it’s likely to see some solid support over the next few months as commodities keep the FTSE 100 unseasonably high. Sell in May? In 2018… No way! TheShareHub top ten picks lead the way although frustratingly held back by some slow progress (in share price terms) from HUM, SOLG, and CERP. All are lagging despite great updates, so one would assume these should outperform or consolidate well if or when a commodity ‘breather’ comes along. Unfortunately for Serica, having assets co-owned by Iran is not ideal but looks like worst case scenario is already priced in. I would expect CERP, SOLG and HUM to be the biggest movers over the next quarter. PetroMatad (MATD) as part of the 2018 ‘heads up’ calls should also spring into life as the long awaited summer blockbuster exploration drill plan gets underway. Roughly 6 weeks left to get tickets booked – cheap seats still going for that show. Usual risks apply – see the risk warnings in sidebar.