ShareHub Hotlist 2018 Review – Week 44

Another week passes and another 1000 stabbings occur in London. That figure isn’t verified and if you asked the Police, they wouldn’t be able to verify the numbers either. The problem is… the only stabbings that get notified or registered are those that are either fatal or require emergency A&E attention. Tighter laws need to be introduced and swiftly. A knife is just as dangerous as a Gun. Unless you’re a butcher or a fisherman, I see little point in walking around London streets armed with a knife whether pen-knife size or cleaver. Just ban the carrying of any blade like weapon and increase the penalty ten fold. That should reduce the number of knife carriers by half in blink fo an eye. Some will point to the Tory cuts to policing. Of course, if you reduce the presence of Police on the streets, then crime will increase. So the government has to be held to account when it comes to the demise of London and the new Ghetto name tag. Like actions taken on pushing back the gambling law or the sloth like approach to dealing with the likes of Amazon/google tax avoidance. These are issues that need to be addressed swiftly. We don’t live in a world anymore where you can allow a year or two to slip by. Changes need to happen and happen faster. Brexit has been a distraction for all involved and if you add the number of metaphorical ‘back stabbings’ into the numbers, we’d be close to 1 million per week and that’s just within the Conservative Party. Too many politicians have used Brexit to strengthen their political donors positions. Too much infighting and not enough cohesion. Should a deal finally get agreed in the next couple of months, then minds can refocus on the important issues at home which hopefully will result in the gambing stake reduction law being introduced next year, a new Knife ban with higher penalties and many other important issues sorted out.

Week 44 Review:
The spectacular rise of Serica Energy continues. Many ShareHub readers will know from past ShareHub coverage that this stock was dealt a blow by BP a few years ago when the Oil Major pulled out of a huge exploration well in Namibia. Three years ago, Serica Shares were trading at 7p. 2 years ago they were trading at 13p. Then, this time last year, Christmas came early.  BP dropped their BKR assets down the chimney. It was an astonishing deal as it effectively gave Serica huge resources / reserves and instant cash flow. Where’s the catch? Well, imagine you are buying and selling oranges and making a 20% profit only then to have to hand over that 20% profit to the tax man. That’s BP in simple terms. In Serica’s hands, these assets are hugely profitable due to the tax breaks they receive. Furthermore, the impact of the cash flows is transformational in market cap terms. The problem for large Oil majors is when fields get to the end of their life, the last few years become loss making or at very best breakeven. All liabilities with decommissiong remain as do staff costs/redundancies. The list goes on. Now, since the BP deal, Serica has continued to pick up more assets from the Oil Majors on the cheap in similar style deals. Some of these are structured in a way that makes them look a bit like a tax dodge. Serica could in effect be an offshore tax haven as some deals see Serica return cash to BP. So ineffect, BP’s cash/assets go to Serica and then come back to them via Serica (albeit reduced) but one suspects with tax benefits. Now don’t get me wrong. I adore this kind of business model. The City of London and the likes of Goldman’s and others have been washing cash through offshore accounts for years. Russian money, whether in London Property or through cars or art sales – always seems to find its way through London. These are the ugly deals – the type of deals where the man/woman on the street sees no benefit at all. UK Oil&Gas is in need of support and investment. The City of London is not interested in supporting these companies as seen by the handling of the Xcite Energy fiasco. 300mmboe in reserves and approx £90m in debt yet the finance world could not support them and instead the company is no more and the 300mmboe is still under the sea. More ‘good’ deals like Serica/BP’s should take place. There are few AIM listed management teams out there that are more than capable of taking on the responsibility of some ageing fields and have huge tax loss pots to utilise. At 134p, Serica has grown 10 fold since last year. It’s now approaching a mid-tier Oil&Gas company. If the Oil majors continue to use Serica in this way, then it could become a 20 bagger stock. It should be noted that Oil fields don’t always perform as planned and there is a risk attached to taking on these fields. Serica recently cleared a blockage in one of their pipes which held production up for some while. So tread carefully. For the moment, Serica is going great guns and the stock has helped the ShareHub top picks to 9.7% growth for the year.

Elsewhere, AMER begins (early stages) what looks like a long overdue recovery back to 20p levels. At 11.5p, it still has some way to go but based on a valuation basis, there is no obvious reason for the stock to be so deeply discounted against cash flows and future multi exploration programme.

Not many weeks left to the end of the year, but I am hopeful that CERP can put in a strong finish by hitting a 1000bopd target. CORA is in need of cash and will need to get a funding round sorted swiftly if they are to prepare for further exploration next year ahead of the Mali rainy season in June. HUM know all too well how damaging the rains can be and an update on how the company intends to move forward is much needed. It doesn’t look like a good year for the minnow Gold Producer. Finally, WRES is edging higher after making good progress on their La Parrilla project. Quite a few ShareHub top picks look set for a decent rise assuming news is good and post US mid term elections deliver a Santa Rally.

As for the story in 2019 and which stocks might perform well… we’ll get to that in a few weeks time.

ShareHub top picks 2018 – Week 44
DailyMail top picks 2018 – Week 44

Guardian top picks 2018 – Week 44

ShareHub Hotlist 2018 Review – Week 43

Another lacklustre and weak period for equities. Majority of major indices have wiped 2018 gains out completely and are trading at levels seen last year. All the risks of early 2018 remain and whilst little rocket man and the strawberry blonde appear to have shaken hands, not a lot has actually happened. Same could be said for Brexit. There’s more talk about ‘extending’ and kicking the can down the road than there is talk of getting agreements done prior to deadlines. The longer the can is kicked down the road, the more money the EU gets from the UK. It’s like paying your mortgage off and then the lender coming back to you and asking for another couple of bonus years. Big business is just getting on with it as best they can but huge changes await around the corner and it is going to be choppy. The likes of Apple, Google, Facebook and of course Amazon are unaffected. Cross border trade for digital online retail services seems almost non existent. Hammonds recent budget yesterday highlighted the need to clamp down on tax payments by these companies but that’s not going to take effect until 2020 and even then it’s minor. As an example, some will remember how UK listed PartyGaming the pioneer in internet gambling/poker/casino games etc dominated the world including the USA. The Vegas groups got left behind. But within a year or two a bill was slipped through the senate that ‘banned’ non US companies doing business with US consumers. The legal responsibility rested with the banks that do the credit transactions. The US has for years upon years been protective about ‘business’ in and outside the States and Trumps recent mantra of America ‘FIRST’ is just a blunt reiteration of this mindset. On the other side of that mentality is an America that is doing trade with the rest of the world via Apple, Google, Amazon and so on and not paying their fair share of tax due while also single handedly (in Amazon’s case) destroying the UK retail sector. So why can’t the UK or others introduce a similar ban on sales to these companies? Why not put the responsibility onto credit card companies and banks. It’s been going on for years and looking at Hammond’s recent offering, I do not think the big US firms are worried too much and Hammond should be ashamed of that. Now is the time to put a heavy boot in and not pussy foot around. When the UK finally gets over the Brexit line, it will need to put BRITAIN FIRST. That needs to happen not in 2 years time, but now.

Week 43 Review:

Dealing with ShareHub underperformers first, unfortunate news from Hummingbird Resources has all but put a nail in that coffin for that stock in 2018. A combination of poor management decisions has seen an attractive investment case and 38p share price fall to just 19.5p. It’s a wake up call for all investors to not assume that cash flows will come just because a mine is fully functional. Hiccups, unforeseen or down to managerial issues can occur in any business. HUM’s ability to deliver the mine on time and on budget should be applauded but since then costs have spiralled and AISC’s of $900oz have taken the gloss of a fine future. The latter now rests firmly with the planned boosting of resources which is now a must. If they extend mine life to 10 years, then the story looks much brighter. Amerisur Resources continues to drift lower. Anyone would think PoO is trading at $28pb again. Amerisur is debt free and has cash of approx $50m in the bank. 5000bopd production and an exciting exploration plan within the CPO-5 licence block which is run by Indian giant ONGC. It’s certainly a puzzle and management have been silent so one wonders whether an MBO deal may be in the wings? Eitherway, assuming there are no uglies lurking, I would expect AMER to put on some weight once the exploration drill bit starts turning. 3 x dusters seem priced in already which is a little pessimistic considering the success of the first well. Could be the market just being thick (which it is 70% of the time) or simply selling pressure from large HNWI’s like Rex Harbour. Next is Cora Gold. Decent news out on resources but the market knows they need funding to progress and thus share price progress is like being stuck in mud until resolved – the company needs to get funding sorted so plans can move forward. And finally CERP. This company has a bright future now that M&A is bedded in and spanish issues look under control. I expect newsflow to pick up once the recent placing shares have been waved through at the upcoming EGM. Schroders are not in the habit of throwing cash away and their investment in CERP is sizable. Out of the 4 lagging stocks, I would expect CERP to stand the best chance of seeing green again this year. Not much to report on the positive performing stocks. Serica have unplugged their blockage and are doing much better after Iran sanction issues put to bed… for time being. PVR and SOLG could have an exciting end to the year as SOLG are due to report on updated resources report and PVR are heading ever closer to a transformational drill programme on their Barryroe asset in 2019.

The newspaper picks are beginning to look like tired. But losses have been plugged of late and it is the ShareHub picks that seem more intent on tracking down to red levels rather than the newspaper picks seeing green again. I think it’s highly unlikely that it will end positive for the DailyMail or Guardian in 2018.

Commodities M&A still missing in action… surely it has to kick off soon? Roll on week 44.

ShareHub 2018 top picks -week 43
DailyMail 2018 top picks -week 43

Guardian 2018 top picks -week 43

ShareHub Hotlist 2018 Review – Week 42

Musk gone quiet. Serena gone quiet and miraculously even Boris gone quiet. All seem to be learning from their mistakes and hunkering down away from the media limelight. Should be a quiet week then… until the unbelievable happens…the Saudi’s well known for there discreet way they go about things, step up to the plate with an outrageous fatal Tarantino style fumbled illegal interrogation of journalist Mr Jamal Khashoggi. Turkish President Erdogan is no stranger in dealing with difficult Journalists. Serena Shim (29 year old US Journalist) was suspiciously killed in a car crash in 2014 shortly after being threatened by the Turkish Intelligence services – according to some news wires. If this was down to Russia, then sanctions would be forthcoming. But this is Saudi Arabia. Huge billion dollar arms deals are done between UK and Saudi. Same to be said of US. Rolls Royce sell huge amounts of cars to the middle east and Saudi’s. The list goes on. Hence, the consistent approach would be to put sanctions in place on SA. Ban the US and UK from doing arms deals and prevent Rolls Royce (and other car brands) from selling expensive cars. Not going to happen is it? It’s times like these where the ‘double standards’ really begin to come out into the open. Saudi Arabia is a honey pot. The western business world (and China) swarms around sucking up the honey at every given opportunity. So the question that really needs to be asked is how far can the Saudi’s go before the business world stop swarming around the honey and the UK and US stop selling arms? That’s a worrying question indeed especially when you take into consideration the Saudi’s ability to simply turn the oil taps off. It’s times like these that you really begin to get a feel for world order or the lack of it!

Moving on… Trump will be chuffed that the media world is chomping away on Saudi Arabia when they should be splattering the media channels with smear stories ahead of the US mid-terms. Distraction is a wonderful tool isn’t it Mr Trump? Markets are beginning to look edgy and derisk as a bad result for Mr Trump’s party could mean difficulties ahead for the US in policy terms as the President’s power to push through key plans potentially hit greater resistance.

With Major indices wobbling around, the Gold stuff is quite rightly strengthening. As the year nears the end, Gold should see further strength as Q4 tends to be a strong period for the precious metal.

Equities look weak at present. Algo bot sell programs aside, margins and leverages are being tested. Overstretched investors often become forced sellers which in turn delivers a more widespread correction which effects commodity stocks even when PoO is at 4 year year highs.

Week 42 Review:

The ShareHub picks have done well to retain a decent growth rate in 2018. The newspaper picks often favouring safer bluechips are suffering along with FTSE100. The Guardian’s woes continue and the DailyMail picks look wobbly. Still 10 weeks left to go but at present the ShareHub picks look a shoe-in. HUM, AMER, and SOLG are all seeking to bolster resources through exploration programmes. Results from all three should be through before year end. CERP is increasingly becoming a stock for 2019. 2018 has been a year of sorting out legacy issues and getting acquisitions completed. The stock should exit 2018 with around 1000bopd which is double where it ended 2017. These cash flows should deliver a self funded high impact exploration programme in the SWP, Trinidad. Some serious resources to be tapped and with a market cap of £29m at present, there should be plenty of upside ahead for the patient investor. Amerisur defies belief at the moment and should regain some value once the large seller has been cleared. November could be the month for AMER and at 11p a share, there is potential to double on any Indico-1 drill success. No guarantees of course! Risks remain – please see sidebar for risk warnings.

ShareHub Top picks 2018 week 42
DailyMail Top picks 2018 week 42

Guardian Top picks 2018 week 42

ShareHub Hotlist 2018 Review – Week 40&41

After skipping last weeks review, week 40 and 41 team well as a ‘before’ the DOW wobble and ‘after’ the DOW wobble. I’ve said for a while now that ‘this’ market, ‘todays’ market, is not like that seen before. Volatility generates the big bucks and after a few weeks of the DOW creeping higher to punch out new all time highs, the algo bots decided it was time for a little shake up. And why not? The drop in January 2018 from 26500 to 23000 provided another significant profit opportunity or rinse and repeat. This time it looks like a drop from 26700’s to 25000’s might be sufficient especially with Mid term US elections around the corner. Afterall, what’s the rush, there are plenty of ‘rinse and repeats’ lined up in the months ahead. Since QE and 2009, the market has acted as a washing machine for FED Reserve, UK and EU printed cash to work its way back into the banks pockets. After a decade or so, the coffers should be getting near ‘comfortable’ levels and one assumes that once this has been done, the ‘throw them to the wolves’ mentality will be reintroduced. Like a F1 pace car, the FED Reserve and EU have been doing circuit after circuit, burning cash along the way but keeping the pack in track. When the pace car is removed, it will be interesting to see how the markets and banks cope. As most of you know, by design, the market will eat itself in an attempt to survive. Perhaps this time around, the global powers involved will make sure that this mentality is reduced. A starting point would be to get ‘shorting’ rules tightened up. The argument of liquidity and hedging is utter rubbish. Bit like the argument over huge salaries for bankers required simply to secure top talent. Not true. That’s made up by the market. There are plenty of very smart young banking execs out there which would happily work on salaries alone without bonuses. Putting that aside, back to shorting rules… here’s an idea… why not treat the UK AIM market as a haven for investment rather than a type of Ladbrokes (other bookies are available) environment. Yes, higher risk remains in these stocks but they need investment to deliver and if you don’t invest in the future, where’s the new innovation going to come from? So why not remove ‘shorting’ from AIM listed stocks. Let them trade based on merit or failure without the contrived shorting that often occurs ahead of placings or CB raises. Some will say, what about arbitrage? Come on… most of these high risk stocks are high risk for a reason. An investor knows the dangers involved. If the investor wants to manage the risk then do so using other tools in the market… not shorting the stock. Many will remember Xcite Energy. Over 300mmboe in reserves and yet approx £90m of debt could not be refinanced due to the fact that the very bondholders/debt holders involved had shorted the equity to almost zero. Is that the best way to boost UK Oil & Gas reserves? If more ‘helpful’ investment approaches were deployed, then perhaps the need to FRACK in the UK would be zero. The UK is not the wild west. It’s not like the US shale fields. It’s a country that is seeing its prized countryside turned into mini housing estates, farm land being sold off and food supplies dwindling. Now with oil prices rising, the UK looks set to be fracked again. It’s wrong and unnecessary. Instead, focus on boosting AIM listed Oil&Gas stocks. Ban shorting and strengthen governance. Strengthen communications. Remove licences and re-award them if left languishing. Generate jobs, skills and reduce reliance on imports. Not hard is it? With Brexit around the corner, it’s about time Blighty started acting like good old Blighty. Roll up the sleeves and get this country’s energy supplies supported with UK based firms. Avoid the Fracking.

Week 40&41 review:

As seen by the folio updates below, the DOW’s wobble was felt widespread. Quite unusual considering PoO and PoG both remained very solid. The latter has since put on 4%. To be fair, it looked oversold in the first place so hard to tell whether the move to safety can be confirmed. But the bounce is welcome and should markets take a breather in 2019 (as many expect) then PoG should continue to recover back to $1350oz or with a little wind in the sails, go on to test $1450oz.

Amerisur Resources (AMER) one of the ShareHub’s picks for 2018 confirmed an oil discovery from its Pintadillo-1 well. The well flowed 590bopd with decent 30.4api oil. The share price fell 25%. Odd isn’t it? This trend has been in place for some time now. The stock seems eternally weighted to the downside despite positive updates. The company is in a much better position today than it was in 2016 and yet the share price has fallen from 34p to 11p levels today. As PoO rises, AMER falls. It’s almost as if the algo bots have used AMER as a hedge to PoO. Buy crude and sell AMER. Buy Amer and sell crude. Daft as that may sound, the markets are far from functional or logical. Take another ShareHub 2018 pick like SOLG. Another stock in the doldrums. Added to the 2018 folio at 30p a share and within 8 months the stock was testing 20p. During this period the company issued mining/exploration updates that revealed the main assets resources were increasing. It was all good stuff. Then as if someone had swicthed off a black algo box by accident, the stock bounced off 20p and steadied itself at 24p. A few weeks later, BHP bought 6% equity in the stock for 26p. And a month or so after that BHP buys another huge stake for 45p a share. The stock doubles off lows to trade at 41p today. Boring boring drip drip boring for 8 months and then boom! Seen that pattern elsewhere? Get a feeling that something just doesn’t add up or make sense? Well, the chances are the stock is being manipulated. To suit a buyer? To suit a new equity raise? To suit an MBO? Speculation aside, it has not all gone swimmingly for AMER. The stock has underdelivered in terms of the promised exploration programme, but this is set to change with the second exploration well on the heralded CPO-5 licence. Indico-1 well is expected to spud within the next couple of weeks. That alone should be worthy of a 25% rise in the share price nevermind pricing back in the newly discovered 590bopd production. Watch out for news soon as something feels like it is brewing on AMER.

Further good news across the ShareHub picks have helped support gains for the year. Serica Energy confirmed that US sanctions on Iranian owned assets will not effect the business as many had feared. It could have been worse so Serica can count themselves lucky. Elsewhere, important exploration results are expected from HUM along with a slighly lower production count for Q3 as rainy season in Mali has a habit of making conditions tricky to mine at optimum levels.

Roll on week 42, it will be interesting to see how the ShareHub picks bounce back against a recovering or more stable DOW.

ShareHub week 40 2018
ShareHub week 41 2018
DailyMail week 40 2018
DailyMail week 41 2018
Guardian week 40 2018

Guardian week 41 2018

ShareHub Hotlist 2018 Review – Week 39

Week 39 slips by and still nothing concrete on Brexit just Boris blowing off. The man lost all credibility after the Heathrow debacle and yet he’s still spouting on like he believes he has an audience. I think best thing for the likes of Musk, Johnson and of course Serena is to hunker down and avoid social media or any kind of media for the next 6 months plus. The latter should apologise for unsporting behaviour. Smashing rackets, ranting and raving is not a good example for her young daughter to follow. King Federer (on and off the court) carries sophistication and elegance. A true champion and one of the greats. He’s a credit to the game of Tennis and Serena would do well to learn a few things from that master or perhaps follow the legend Borg and hang up the boots at the appropriate time.

The same could be said for the likes of Tusk, Juncker and Barnier. On the surface they play a good game, try and look sophisticated but behind the scenes there’s more precious items than rackets being smashed. It’s been a shambles. The youth of tomorrow will not be voting for these disconnected generations types that are out of touch with the real world. The EU’s mantra from the very beginning was one of ‘teach the naughty boy/girl a lesson’. If Brexit was a success then the fear would be that other countries would follow. Well, wake up Mr Europe… the world has already followed. Border trading has all but gone. The likes of Amazon, Google and Apple are digitally crossing your precious EU boundaries and taking huge chunks of revenue and paying close to nothing in tax. When the EU was set up decades ago, the internet was just a few bits of code in Mr Sutherland’s mind. The idea of common markets had a purpose. The EU had a purpose and it still does to some extent. But life and business has moved on. Tusk, Barnier and Juncker look like petrol guzzling cars in a Tesla world. The EU and UK ‘had’ a terrific opportunity to show the world that they can work together and adapt to changes… even big ones like Brexit. Together, fighting the likes of Amazon, Google, Apple and others is going to need cohesive planning. The focus should be firmly on how ‘all’ business is done in the context of borderless trading. It’s time to put the school room cane down and start leading by example… through a grown up and professional approach to Brexit. If that’s not possible, then postpone Brexit, boot out the fumblers and get some new fresh blood in to take a new brave road forwards into a world that is changing every day of the year.

Mini rant over, the markets in general are showing no signs of fears over Brexit or Chinese trade wars. Interests in Gold are near lows for the year which is odd considering Trumps control could be weakened dramatically over the next 8 weeks with Mid term US elections due. Gold tends to rally in Q4 and it certainly has plenty of scope for a bounce all the way back to $1300oz. Should bode well for sharehub pick hummingbird resources which is long overdue a recovery to mid 30p ranges based on projected earnings.

Oil focused stocks like Tullow and Premier Oil have crept up against a surging oil price. The last time Tullow was around 240p level, POO was trading at $45pb. Today POO is trading at $85pb (Brent) and Tullow is trading at 265p. 10% growth based on a $40pb increase? I think the casino needs the under-table magnets adjusting as valuations across many Oil focused stocks look hideously cheap.

Week 39 – Review

I mentioned a few weeks ago that I thought the ShareHub would double its 7.5% growth to 15% before end of the year. I didn’t think it would be so swift, but here we are with TheShareHub top ten pushing past 14% and above in week 39. With another 13 weeks left and little sign of the Saudi’s or Russian’s changing tact, 25% growth for the year is the new target.

Catalysts are loading up for CERP, HUM and AMER in Q4, so the ShareHub laggards should begin to contribute to the growth rate soon. Heads up picks, PDL and MATD have both struggled but look to have a decent amount of upside in the tanks assuming good news flows. MATD looks terrific value (6.2p) for those that like risky exploration plays. With a fully funded 2019 lined up and another 4 to 5 wells+, there’s more than enough excitement to provide a multibagging opportunity from there. No guarantees of course!

TheShareHub picks are trouncing the newspaper professional guru picks. Still a quarter to go, so best not get too cocky but it is looking like another great year. No multibaggers just yet but keep an eye on PVR and PMO. Both could notch up multibagging tags this year.

ShareHub Hotlist 2018 week 39
DailyMail top picks 2018 week 39

Guardian top picks 2018 week 39

ShareHub Hotlist 2018 Review – Week 38

US markets at all time highs is not really a surprise considering Mr Trumps upcoming mid term elections. He’s been constant with his view that the Stock Market is healthy under his guard so it would not be beneficial to him or his party if the market took a dive pre-elections. As highlighted before on TheShareHub, the markets knee jerk reaction earlier in the year to a Trade war with China was certainly a sign of common sense returning to the markets. 9 months on and the Trade war is in full swing. It’s no longer a possibility, it’s a reality. Yet here we are with the usual blatant ignorance being exhibited by a market that just doesn’t know when it’s too hot. Some steam will need to come off at some point soon but I doubt it will happen until after the US mid terms. Bonus season and the usual Santa Rally might keep things frothy for a few weeks after but come 2019, it’s likely to be correction time. More recently, the commodity sector has bounced on higher demand across metals and Oil with the exception being Gold. The latter should come into its own in 2019 but it may need a prolonged corrective phase before investors finally get their teeth sunk into the gold bars. A broad brush is often applied to equities when bear markets kick in so it will be interesting to see how Gold focused equities play out against a market downturn and a rising Gold price.

PoO has performed well and many of the doubters touting $10pb are long gone. Many ‘apparent’ guru’s of the market cited OPEC’s inability to work with their own members nevermind non OPEC giants like Russia. Compliance was the first potential weakness to be highlighted followed by oil tankers/storage. The latter has been drained and the former is working together better than the US government, better than the UK government and the entirety of the EU. Some had called OPEC ‘dead’. Big mistake. OPEC are very much alive and they have the globe in their hands. If Saudi’s turn off the taps, we are all in deep trouble. US production has stalled, rig counts going nowhere fast. And this is with PoO in the $60’s and $70’s. There might be some gains to come but infrastructure issues are holding the US shale revolution back. That and funding of course. Once bitten twice shy. Many funds are reluctant to get stung twice and the Saudi’s have shown that they will flood the market if or when they feel the need. For the moment, there is not an analyst out there that can tell you how much oil is coming to market from non-opec sources. So many projects have been shelved. So many large developments abandoned. It’s this lack of investment and development that should ultimately drive M&A. It’s cheaper to buy the reserves than explore/discover them these days. Recent activity across the Gold/Copper sector can be seen through BHP’s acquired 6% interest in SOLG (part of ShareHub 2018 picks) and the huge Randgold/Barrick merger deal. The latter will create the largest Gold miner in the world. It will have the competition quaking in their boots. Expect more M&A to follow across commodities especially in the Oil sector. Premier Oil and Tullow both look easy targets for the deeper pocketed bigger fish seeking huge reserves at a cheap price.

Week 38 review:

TheShareHub commodity focused picks are beginning to get a jog on mainly driven by Oil price and the buzz of M&A. SOLG was the worst performer in the top ten picks dropping from 30p entry price to 20p not long ago. BHP’s small 6% nibble has certainly got the stock going again. Some good updates from many of the SharHub picks of late have contributed to a solid performance in week 38. Stocks like HUM, CERP and AMER should be performing better although the latter has recently updated on a duster (not quite a duster but as good as one). There’s more exploration to come from AMER, so today’s near 15% fall looks way over done – I would expect a decent bounce in the coming weeks. Premier Oil continues to plot its way back to recovery levels although at 135p, the stock is still 165p away from the 300p level last seen when PoO was in the $70’s just a few years ago now. Dilution has occured since then but debt has fallen, reserves bolstered and production looks steady. Any move through $90pb on PoO and Premier should be eyeing 200p levels again. That’s a ten bagger from 20p lows last seen at the height of the recent Oil crisis. A risky business picking bottoms but clearly very fruitful if well timed.

The newspaper picks are recovering a little now, although the Guardian is going to need a miracle to get over the hurt caused by retailer Footasylum. Just 12/13 weeks left to the finish line.

ShareHub top picks for 2018 – week 38
DailyMail top picks for 2018 – week 38

Guardian top picks for 2018 – week 38