2014 Hotlist Results – Week 46

Week 46 of 2014

Another strong week for the Major indices. The Dow closed at 17635 and the FTSE 100 at 6654. There’s no stopping the US index’s. After the markets wobble just 4 weeks ago, the DOW has taken a trip from 17350 to test 15850 and then promptly stomped back up to punch through new highs. Japanese QE the reason? Or the impending Mario EU bazooka? Whatever it is – it’s filling the US QE gap.

Next week OPEC meet on 27th to decide on whether to cut back Oil output and bolster the OIL price. The Saudi’s appear to be happy with Oil at $75 but that’s just talk. Any inaction on the 27th could see prices fall to nearer $70pb or even $65pb. Countries like Brazil, Russia, Iran and Iraq are all feeling the squeeze. Historically – OIL price normally rise into the US and EU winter seasons. It will be interesting to see how next week plays out. One would guess that $80pb would tick many boxes but not certainly not all. Putin needs $110pb to help balance cuts via Sanctions. Iran who are apparently heading towards a key deadline on talks with UN/US over Nuclear program – also need oil alot higher. US shale players would welcome oil at $100 again but that’s looking unlikely based on current demand.

A virtual portfolio has been set up using the 2013 final trading day close figures as a starting point and £1000 has been invested in each stock. This does not include buying fees or stamp duty and is purely intended to be used as a benchmark or summary for each week. Two newspaper top ten picks for 2014 have been included to help monitor/compare against.

Week 46 stock picks performance review:

Another week ticks by and with less than 6 weeks left, the Independent moves to within a whisker of making it 3 years on the trot and finishing in the blue. The Telegraph is not far behind and could launch a late challenge for top spot.

On the small caps and commodity players, some decent bounces from popular stocks like XEL, GKP and Afren. All are beaten up after months of sp falls. I wouldn’t normally put Afren in the small cap mix but with a market cap under £1bln now, it’s very much a small cap player. It wasn’t that long ago it was worth £1.6bln. 2015 now looks like the year for Afren to bounce back based on increased production and drilling catalysts. 2014 is best forgotten. Some new management roles/senior appointments would not go a miss and is something to look out for. GKP heads into the usual ‘funding’ period of the year. The IMS (which was not an IMS but an ops update) confirmed they had just $100mln left in cash. That said, they did have around $250mln owed. Perhaps GKP shareholders should be charging the KRG a rather large 16% interest rate if payments are not forthcoming soon? XEL are heading methodically towards FDP submission. When completed – it may well become the benchmark or blueprint for other cash strapped operators as alternative partnerships are agreed which circumnavigate the usual exposure to risk that comes with the normal farm out route. The next 6 weeks could be the most exciting for the small cap picks which says a lot as 2014 has been a year to forget (again).

Current standings / Week 46 Results

1. The Independent’s Top Ten 2014 -0.60% (Weekly gain of 2.38%)
2. The Telegraph’s Top Ten 2014 -3.63% (Weekly loss of 0.24%)
3. TheShareHub’s 2014 B-List -26.27% (Weekly loss of 0.28%)
4. TheShareHub’s 2014 Hotlist -38.81% (Weekly loss of 0.38%)

Click on Portfolio image to enlarge:Independent week 46Telegraph Week 46TSH B-list week 46TSH Hotlist Week 46


2014 Hotlist Results – Week 45

Week 45 of 2014

Due to some technical tweaks/upgrades – week 45 review is short and sweet.

A virtual portfolio has been set up using the 2013 final trading day close figures as a starting point and £1000 has been invested in each stock. This does not include buying fees or stamp duty and is purely intended to be used as a benchmark or summary for each week. Two newspaper top ten picks for 2014 have been included to help monitor/compare against.

Current standings / Week 45 Results

1. The Independent’s Top Ten 2014 -2.98% (Weekly loss of 0.03%)
2. The Telegraph’s Top Ten 2014 -3.39% (Weekly loss of 0.1%)
3. TheShareHub’s 2014 B-List -25.99% (Weekly gain of 1.24%)
4. TheShareHub’s 2014 Hotlist -38.43% (Weekly gain of 0.55%)

2014 Hotlist Results – Week 44

Week 44 of 2014

It’s still rather quiet out there on the media front. Ebola, Putin and EU issues seem to be less of an interest to the market when putting on chunks of 500pts+. The bounce from mid October has seen the DOW return about 10%. Not long ago – that would have represented a very decent 2 or 3 years performance on the Index. These days – it occurs in 2 weeks. Perhaps the markets should be seeking new regulation from Las Vegas rather than SEC or the FCA?

The commodity sector continues to trade as if Oil at $76 range is a crisis. It may well be a squeeze on many economies, but unless you are a shale producer, the damage (at present) is not of a major consequence to most producers. Most are well hedged on future oil sales. XEL who are NOT a producer has a commercial threshold on Bentley of circa $45pb. It’s easy to understand how the market assumes lower oil prices is bad news for oil focused stocks, but companies that have FDP’s pen’d in for 2017 or 2018 production start up should not be beaten up based on oil prices in 2014. M&A activity is missing across the North Sea and the globe in general and that clearly hasn’t helped. However, M&A does not occur based on macro or near term oil price moves – it’s usually based on a 5 year or 10 year outlook and 25 years when looking at full FDP periods.

Catalysts that are fast approaching which could boost many oil focused companies if Nov 27th OPEC meeting and the UK Autumn Statement set for Dec 3rd which should outline tax plans for North Sea.

It’s dicey out there at the moment and difficult to predict when the markets fancy another dip or spike. Very much down to the ‘house’ and how the casino wants to play out the last 7 weeks of the year.

The usual Santa Rally or Bonus nest feathering action may a few weeks off yet but which floor or level will that begin from? Another 10% swing on the DOW will have many brokers pockets bursting.

The Dow closed week 44 up 548 pts to close at 17354 just off all time highs. The FTSE 100 closed up a decent 137 pts at 6526.

A virtual portfolio has been set up using the 2013 final trading day close figures as a starting point and £1000 has been invested in each stock. This does not include buying fees or stamp duty and is purely intended to be used as a benchmark or summary for each week. Two newspaper top ten picks for 2014 have been included to help monitor/compare against.

Week 44 stock picks summary:

On the stock front – Afren’s IMS disappointed and GKP pushed their IMS out by 2 weeks. Lower oil prices are hurting the small caps but we should be clear here – the small cap commodity sector has been beaten to a pulp over the last 2 years so it is little wonder that there’s any life left to squeeze out. The market seems keen to try it all the same.

The Independent Newspaper remains top of the picks and could make it a 3rd year win on the trot.

Current standings / Week 44 Results

1. The Independent’s Top Ten 2014 -2.95% (Weekly gain of 1.92%)
2. The Telegraph’s Top Ten 2014 -3.29% (Weekly gain of 2.31)
3. TheShareHub’s 2014 B-List -27.23% (Weekly loss of 1.33%)
4. TheShareHub’s 2014 Hotlist -38.98% (Weekly gain of 1.38%)

Click on Portfolio image to enlarge:Independent week 44Telegraph week 44B-list week 44Hotlist week 44

2014 Hotlist Results – Week 43

Week 43 of 2014

Another volatile week which ended higher. It might feel like bloody nose time, but the irony is… the blue chips/equities are actually trading higher. The same cannot be said for energy focused stocks which continue to be traded like the plague. The world media seem to have grown tired of Ebola, Putin and IS as the markets major concerns now seem suddenly forgotten or in the background. When the DOW is ready for a little topple or drift down, be sure these stories will move to the forefront again. For now, it’s all about corp earnings and Yellen. The latter is due to update market on QE when they meet on Weds.

The Dow closed week 43 up a huge 416 pts to close at 16806. The FTSE 100 closed up a more moderate 79 pts at 6389. After the last two weeks volatility – week 43 did not disappoint.

A virtual portfolio has been set up using the 2013 final trading day close figures as a starting point and £1000 has been invested in each stock. This does not include buying fees or stamp duty and is purely intended to be used as a benchmark or summary for each week. Two newspaper top ten picks for 2014 have been included to help monitor/compare against.

Week 43 stock picks summary:

As mentioned above – despite the volatile and bloody nose experiences across the markets, equities seem to have put in a winning week. Not all of course, but the bulk of the blue chips still seem to be enjoying the dregs of the QE party. Or perhaps a few are getting a bit fizzy about the prospect of some more QE via ECB or dare I say it… via the Fed Reserve.

Stocks to watch out for in week 44 are Afren and GKP. Both are due to issue their Interim Management Statements/updates to the market on Thursday 30th October. Both will be hoping the market is in a good mood following the Fed update on Wednesday.

The Independent Newspaper top ten picks continues to lead the pack and if October proves to be the worst month of Q4, then there’s a very strong chance the newspaper picks can return to positive ground.

Current standings / Week 43 Results

1. The Independent’s Top Ten 2014 -4.87% (Weekly gain of 2.35%)
2. The Telegraph’s Top Ten 2014 -5.60% (Weekly gain of 2.85)
3. TheShareHub’s 2014 B-List -25.90% (Weekly gain of 2.01%)
4. TheShareHub’s 2014 Hotlist -40.36% (Weekly loss of 0.59%)

Click on Portfolio image to enlarge:Independent week 43Telegraph week 43B-list week 43Hotlist Week 43

2014 Hotlist Results – Week 42

Week 42 of 2014

It was a week of two halves. The first half felt like the end of the world was nigh. By wednesday and thursday, it felt like the patient had bounced back from a car crash.

Some gentle words from Yellen and some stronger indications on interest rate rises seemed to do the job and pop the dummy back into the markets mouth. But don’t bank on it remaining there. History shows that when the tantrums start, it’s usually a sign of attention seeking. The question is… what attention is the market seeking? Surely not another fix of QE?

The Dow closed week 42 down 164 pts and closed at 16380. The FTSE 100 closed down 30 pts at 6310. Both indices were much lower and the recovery on the second half of the week felt like a boon.

A virtual portfolio has been set up using the 2013 final trading day close figures as a starting point and £1000 has been invested in each stock. This does not include buying fees or stamp duty and is purely intended to be used as a benchmark or summary for each week. Two newspaper top ten picks for 2014 have been included to help monitor/compare against.

Week 42 stock picks summary:

I’ll skip the usual commentary on individual stocks. In this market there are times when you just can’t say or do anything that makes a difference. Just accept the animal that it is and try and understand its reasons/emotions. However, there is one thing that you can learn from periods of volatility and that’s ‘bounce back’ ability. Try noting the stocks that took a little less of a beating or that bounced back the quickest or with more urgency. These are the stocks that may well perform better on any longer term rallies should they occur. Not 100% certain, but some stocks are more vulnerable than others and it’s a lesson worth learning.

One stock that does warrant a mention is Afren. A wealthy private Nigerian oil company is stakebuilding and Afren BoD’s have drafted in Rothschild to help defend it from an approach. With the sp at just 98p range, one has to scratch the head on this one as Mr Market seems disinterested. The reality is, an offer nearer 180p to 200p would certainly see Mr Market wake up at last. For the moment Mr Market seems comfortable with the ex General’s newly acquired 7%+ interest in the oil&gas E&P.

After a couple of sessions of volatility and a near 10% correction across the FTSE100, you’d have expected to see more bruises than smiles. But unexpectedly, week 42 actually delivered some gains for the blue chip newspaper picks.

Current standings / Week 42 Results

1. The Independent’s Top Ten 2014 -7.12% (Weekly gain of 2.14%)
2. The Telegraph’s Top Ten 2014 -8.45% (Weekly gain of 1.73)
3. TheShareHub’s 2014 B-List -27.91% (Weekly gain of 0.24%)
4. TheShareHub’s 2014 Hotlist -39.87% (Weekly loss of 5.18%)

Click on Portfolio image to enlarge:

Telegraph week 42

Independent Week 42B-list Week 42Hotlist Week 42

2014 Hotlist Results – Week 41

Week 41 of 2014

It feels like Jan 2009 out there at present. The majority of Commodity stocks are trading down in levels that make that woeful post Lehman era look like a garden party bull fest. It’s understandable to see the markets let off some steam as QE3 dries up but that’s more a story for the blue chips who have performed like a race horse on steroids. The commodity sector was not invited to the QE3 party and neglected for the last 3 years. During this period, Oil has gone from $40pb to test $120pb+. With oil now coming back to more traditional averages near $85 to $90, the market suddenly fears for small caps seeking FDP’s. The reality is, for most of the small fields, tax breaks are available, credits in abundance and economic stories start for most at around $40pb. So what’s the fuss about? Well, the UK gov are due to announce an updated tax vision for the North Sea in early Dec (autumn statement). M&A and FDP’s seem to have been ‘parked’ until this news is known. Add to that the Scots referendum vote and this year has been a pretty poor year for North Sea focused companies. But January 2015 certainly looks like a different year especially with UK elections around the corner. Could the UK gov have an attractive new tax plan up their sleeves?

In terms of the broader market, there are clear concerns that when bundled do not look great. Ebola, Ukraine/Russian, Iraq, Syria and Turkey and then throw in weak EuroZone and potential for triple dips. And then there’s interest rate rises due in next 6 to 8 months (rough estimate). Not pretty is it?

The Dow closed week 41 down 466 pts and closed at 16544. The FTSE 100 closed down a HUGE 189 pts at 6340. At that rate, the index looks set for new lows.

A virtual portfolio has been set up using the 2013 final trading day close figures as a starting point and £1000 has been invested in each stock. This does not include buying fees or stamp duty and is purely intended to be used as a benchmark or summary for each week. Two newspaper top ten picks for 2014 have been included to help monitor/compare against.

Week 41 stock picks summary:

It’s carnage out there and not many stocks are avoiding the correction. That Said news from BHR on rolling rail stock lease was transformational for them as it reduces cash burn exposure. The stock was the only blue performer in a week that was a sea of red.

Will it get worse? Can it get better? Yes to both. Perhaps the key is to find the hugely discounted resource rich stocks as in theory their value is pinned to historical oil prices (or other commodity prices) and this value clearly has no relation to the sp’s. Stocks like XEL, HUR, AFR, SXX, LOGP and PVR. Any farm outs or asset sales are likely to help the market re-rate the stocks against this irrational backdrop. GKP is still very much in trouble as the region of Kurdistan/iraq continues to be under heavy battle from IS. Issues with Turks and Kurds have reignited which is a major blow. The PKK and Turks are likely to end their ceasefire. GKP’s biggest problem is ‘payment’ of oil. The KRG are due to meet with Baghdad soon and the hope is that they can finally agree to a payment system and Budget. But don’t hold your breath. Baghdad are seemingly back in the driving seat when it comes to negotiations and that does not bode well for the Kurds.

The Independent continues to outperform its newspaper tips competitor but it’s a far cry from the last two years gains. The correlation with QE3 withdrawals can be seen against equities. At some point the market has to get back to making money work without the cheap handouts. That may bode well for higher growth stocks but there’s little incentive to take any more risk than required at present.

Current standings / Week 41 Results

1. The Independent’s Top Ten 2014 -9.36% (Weekly loss of 3.07%)
2. The Telegraph’s Top Ten 2014 -10.18% (Weekly loss of 2.41)
3. TheShareHub’s 2014 B-List -28.15% (Weekly loss of 5.31%)
4. TheShareHub’s 2014 Hotlist -33.69% (Weekly loss of 4.95%)

Click on Portfolio image to enlarge:Independent week 41Telegraph week 41B-list week 41Hotlist week 41