Happy new year to all sharehub readers! I hope you all had a good break and are feeling refreshed and ready for another stonking year ahead.

2016 proved to be an astonishing year and not only in stock performance but world changing events. The illuminati or ‘those in power’ got a right royal kickin up the derrieres. The year started with a stark warning from many of the ‘casino bankers’. The experts and highly paid analysts/economists at RBS said…

“Investors face a “cataclysmic year” where stock markets could fall by up to 20% and oil could slump to $16 a barrel” END. The message was to ‘sell everything’.

11 months later the DOW Jones hit all-time record highs followed by the FTSE100. Well done RBS and co!

Then came the stark warnings ahead of Brexit… The BoE Governor delivered a very sharp warning to all voters. If you vote YES, then you are sending the UK economy into the abyss. George Osborne was not short of warning either. The chancellor predicted a possible 25%+ drop in UK property. These ‘leaders’ and ‘experts’ were of course correct to highlight the risks but none saw it fit to highlight the more positive outcomes. In fact, considering these are the men behind the brains of the UK economy, they couldn’t possibly be wrong could they? Well, they were wrong and spectacularly wrong. So wrong that one has to question their ability and credentials in the first place. Of course, there is a chance that they may have over egged the negative outcomes with the intention to scaremonger and coax british voters into remaining in the UK. But that’s speculative chatter of course.

In summary, from RBS analysts, to hedge fund guru’s like Crispin Odey to Mr Carney, to Mr Osborne and eventually to Clinton and co…. they all took a proper kicking in 2016. It was the year that exposed the ‘brains’ behind business and politics to be little more than ‘guess men’ and ‘chancers’. Lesson’s have been learned and the future will be quite different from here on. 2016 will go down as the true ‘curtain lifter’ on those in power. Clueless, arrogant and disconnected is the best I do without reverting to more colourful language. Just how could they get it so wrong?! And Mr Carney… why are you still running the Bank of England!

Hotlist 2016 Results Summary:

No great surprises in the running order from the last update 2 weeks ago.

The SHAREHUB 2016 Hotlist is crowned the run-away winner with a whopping 123%+ gain. The Independent newspaper picks made a strong come back from 10% down to finish 10.5% up. And in the wooden spoon position, the Daily Mail tips picked by industry ‘experts’ came in with a modest 5% gain against a broader FTSE100 growth rate of 20%.

The SHAREHUB top ten delivered 4 multi-baggers. Some 2 bagged, some 3 bagged and some even 4 bagged. Astonishing performance especially when you account for the total wipe out on XEL.

Whilst 2015 was a poor year it was very much dictated by PoO and Saudi sentiments. It paid well to stick with some poor performers from 2015. But not all stocks looked in shape for recovery. And that’s why it’s healthy to have a clear out and bring in some new blood from time to time. It worked in 2016 and the same applies to 2017. Some of the 2016 picks will feature in 2017 and some will not. All will be revealed later today when the Hotlist picks for 2017 are announced.

2016 FINAL RESULTS:

With just over 2 weeks left to go before the final orders are called on 2016, the sharehub hotlist leads the pack by a whopping 106%.

The sharehub top ten has delivered (to date) a blockbuster return of 115%

and … there’s still 2 weeks + to go!

The one blot on the score card is of course XEL which went in to adminstration after bondholders called time on the Bentley Heavy Oil field. It’s a huge shame and a big loss to UK O&G. Smaller companies should be supported and with just £90mil debt against an asset holding over 260mmboe ‘reserves’ the mind boggles on why there was not a better solution. Timing was a leading factor and the recent progress in PoO based on OPEC and non OPEC deals came too late for XEL shareholders. That said, one would have expected the bondholders to have waited it out until that news had arrived.

Moving onto the success stories… and there are many. Lets look at the multibagger notched up thus far:

In pole position is Kaz Minerals with a very sweet 3 bagger. Closely followed by Hurricane Energy – although that too has a 3 bagger status after breaking 43p this year. Next up is Glencore with a 2 bagger. Ithaca matches that although would command 4 bagger status if taken from 16p lows. Tullow looks very likely to deliver another multibagger for the sharehub with 12% of gains just required.

It’s been a remarkable year of recovery for the commodity sector. And with PoO still in the low $50’s, there’s clearly plenty left in the tank for more growth across the top ten picks.

In particular, the below stocks that have lagged the market for no particular reason. These stocks are likely to ‘catch up’ as investors look for solid stocks with decent upside. The forgotten ones as I call them. I expect the below stocks to begin to move up with more speed as the market moves towards a scenario of higher PoO prices and importantly… stable prices.

1. Amerisur Resources – 10 wells planned in 15 months and a bucket load of catalysts to see the stock rerated. It’s up just 8% this year despite doubling production and finalising the much touted OBA pipeline. It’s 26p today and is lagging peers. It should be in the mid 30’s.
2. Faroe Petroleum – This one is a gem. Zero debt, cash in bank and 18kbopd production after recent DONG acquisition. There are no many debt free 18kbopd, resource rich companies out there today that are trading at £300mil market cap. Most are £400mil+. This one should be trading in the £’s and not the pennies.
3. Ophir Energy – The stock was just 65p a few weeks ago but has risen strongly over the last week to test 90p levels. Based on Tanzania assets and recent farm out deal on Fortuna project, the stock should be 120p+
4. Premier Oil – Debt negs have dragged on and their have been a bucket load of shorters manipulating the price. But the reality is… higher PoO makes a huge difference to a company like PMO with 85k+bopd. The stock has barely moved a penny since PoO was last at $47pb. The market is right to discount based on unknown’s and debt issues but even at 100p+ PMO would still be showing a huge discount compared to peers. When this one gets its house in order, it should be heading for 150p+. But it’s risky and not for the inexperienced.

Placing the sharehub top picks aside, it is only fair that the reigning champions – the Independent top ten, gets a mention. Earlier in the year, the top ten picks were in the red and they looked destined for the wooden spoon. The Daily Mail top ten picks were streets ahead of them. Today, it’s all change. The Independent has swung from a 10% loss position to almost a 10% gain level. Great performance. The Daily Mail has lost ground but still holds a decent 4%+ gain.

Neither come close to thesharehub’s whopping 115% gains. And after several years of heavy losses, it’s about time the sector did a u-turn and started giving back some of what it took away. If the tones from the Saudi’s are to be believed, then 2017 looks set to be another strong year of commodity stock performance as PoO rises and the market rerates the beaten up sector.

It has been a cracking year for thesharehub’s top ten picks for 2016.

Kaz Minerals joins the 3 bagger team. Still plenty of time for Tullow to join the elite multi-bagger group. Hurricane Energy leads the race notching up a 4 bagger thus far and looks like more to come from them with 2 huge exploration/appraisal wells underway.

TheShareHub Multi-bagger list thus far (based on 2016 highs):

1. Hurricane Energy – 4 bagger (up 440% / 10.25p to 45p)
2. Kaz Minerals – 3 bagger (up 345% / 102.25p to 355p)
3. Ithaca Energy – 3 bagger (up 330% / 28p to 92p)
4. Glencore – 3 bagger (up 320% / 90.48p to 290p)

Staggering performance. Tullow currently 60% up on the year and has every chance of making that magic 100% level.

Talking of which, the sharehub top ten picks are now dangerously close to Multi-bagging as a group. The top ten picks are currently up 94%.

Not many funds out there delivering that kind of performance in 2016. One man’s gain is another man’s loss as they say. And looking at the likes of Crispin Odey’s funds…they’ve been taken to the cleaners in 2016.

Crispin… if only you had followed the sharehub…

A full update of thesharehub top ten will be posted next week.

Time flies these days. Where have the last 6 months gone? It’s not been dull – that’s for sure.

How best to sum up H1? Well, it’s been a first half full of surprises and battles of the underdogs.

First we had PoO doubling off lows. The once unwanted and battered commodity came surging back, causing widespread embarrassment for the highly paid ‘so-called’ analysts from Goldman Sachs. They’ve made more wrong turns than an out of date Sat-Nav.

Then came Leicester City – crowned PL champions and deservedly so. But 12 months prior, they were indeed scraping the bottom of the barrel. A recovery story to put a smile on every supporters face.

And more recently, we have England’s exit from the Euro’s. Not Brexit, but the woeful performance against Iceland. Like Leicester, they dared to believe and executed a job like plan with fine efficiency. Unfortunately the same cannot be said of Brexit. Yes – the people have voted, but where’s the plan B? It’s a shambles. MP’s in power should not be entering into Referendum’s if they don’t have a cohesive plan in place to deal with the consequences. It’s school boy stuff which is not all that surprising considering the bulk of the headless chickens are indeed schooled from the very same farm. Just what do they feed them for school dinners? Eton Mess?

So where does that leave us all in H2? Well, it’s not likely to be as exciting as H1 but there are a few events to look out for. Top of the list is the US elections. Hilary vs Trump. Historically, by hook or by crook, stock markets tend to rise into US elections. And with EU market girations expected for the next 6 months minimum, any US interest rate rises (the arch enemy of the money markets at the moment) seems off the table. Can’t going upsetting the US electorate can we? PoO’s re-balancing looks in full swing, with many analysts getting excitable with predictions of $70pb towards end of the year. I’d be happy with $65pb but feel even that might be too far a reach until demand rises in 2017. So some major events to come in H2 and of course the new UK PM appointment to come. But don’t get too excited, it’s in the bag (the handbag) already if you ask me.

It’s been a few years before I can say this… but i’m delighted to report that TheShareHub 2016 hotlist has kicked some serious derriere’s in H1.

Results as follows: Jan 4th – June 30th 2016.

1. TheShareHub Hotlist top ten picks up 41%+ (booooooom!)

2. The Daily Mail top ten picks up 1.7%

3. Independent top ten picks down 9.5%

 

Which stocks to watch out for in H2?

Currently the only two poor performing stocks (and in the red) in the sharehub top ten are XEL and OPHR. In late September (30th) XEL must agree terms with bondholders or seek a further extension if of course it is granted. The chances of the latter look slim so the next 12 weeks will be crucial for XEL shareholders. They have a terrific asset in Bentley. 260mmboe in reserves and 100% ownership. It would be a rare sight indeed to see a company holding that amount of oil go under or into admin. The debt problem involves a £90million loan. It’s not a huge amount but XEL find themselves in a tricky spot whereby buyers, farm in partners and financing players are all working off a very low price deck. At 8.5p per share and just over £25mil market cap, XEL is priced for failure. Long term holders will likely suffer (averages above 100p+) but risk on traders/investors might sense an opportunity here. If XEL pull it off it’s very likely that bondholders will seek some kind of equity. A debt free XEL or a debt ‘kicked down the road to 2018’ XEL is going to be worth possible 4 or 5 times today’s share price. It wouldn’t surprise me one bit to see the sp edge back towards 15p to 20p ranges if or when a deal approaches. Certainly one to watch but avoid like the plague if you don’t like big risk plays.

Ophir – this one is a puzzle. Yes, the bulk of exploration and development projects are a year or two away, so the paint drying treatment is fair to some extent. And the recent failed farm out deal on EG assets is certainly not great news. But this company has serious assets on its books. The tanzanian gas interests are worth in excess of $1bln using past sales. It’s one to watch in H2 simply because I think they will sell that stake soon and with the money gained, buy some bargains. And unlike the Salamander deal, I think they’ll get it right this time.

Others to watch are PMO. Premier have debt talks ongoing but once through that, should be testing 100p+ again. Not without risk of course. At 75p, they have recovered well from 19p lows.

Ithaca are the outstanding play of 2016 and the first sharehub multibagger to report. Currently up 150%+ from the 28p Jan entry price but a whopping 350%+ from 16p lows. At 74p the stock is soaring ahead of Stella first oil. Assuming all goes well with the new rig and PoO continues higher, IAE should be headed higher. That said, at 74p it has a bit priced in already.

Next up, HUR (Hurricane). The company is set to drill two wells in the next few weeks and assuming data is good, should then go on to achieve a decent farm out deal. If they are lucky, they will time those talks with PoO rebalancing in the $60’s and the market/sector in much better mood. At 17p, the stock has clear blue sky all the way up to 40p on the charts. To achieve this, they will need to prove up their OIP numbers to the high end, circa 250mmboe. If they achieve 300mmboe, then that really would be a big surprise.

Finally AMER, this one has been a headache. Management have done a fine job of building up expectations only then to dash them with missed deadline after missed deadline. It’s a torment as the stock has great promise but is going no where fast until Management can confirm pipeline is active and oil deals are in place to get decent output flowing through to Ecuador. The company can only deliver 5k to 7kbopd from their own licences. The pipeline really needs 20kbopd+ to make commercial sense and 50kbopd+ capacity is a boon. I would expect some kind of deal to be signed soon which boosts the pipeline volumes. The trouble is… AMER management have a habit of using AMER shares like candy. If they keep issuing shares like this, they’ll end up diluting the little man completely out of the picture. Market will likely rerate when it sees evidence of ‘pipeline’ revenues.

Enjoy the rest of H2, the sharehub will feature stories and commentary when discussion news arrives. It’s looking good for a blue ‘year’ but worth noting this is just the beginning. The commodity sector is long overdue some M&A and this normally brings with it a sector wide rally as market begins to speculate on who or what might be next for the buyers or predators.

Here we are, into month 5 of 12 already and it’s all good good for the ShareHub top ten picks.

The newspaper picks are lagging bigtime and in particular it’s a surprise to see the Independent top picks in the red after the last few years of successes.

Still early days of course, but there is strength in many of the ShareHUB Top ten picks for good reason. These picks are not small penny AIM listers. In fact, the star performer comes from the FTSE 100 – Glencore. This stock was driven down ‘artificially’ by hedge funds and speculators making huge short bets.
It was this speculation that pushed the share price to lows of 70p. Weeks later (and after a decent rally in commodities) the stock was trading at 170p. That’s a ridiculous swing for a huge bluechip like Glencore. It only serves to illustrate just how poor the markets have become when it comes to over speculation. Many of the hedge funds involved with shorting Glencore are nursing seriously large losses. Odey, just one of the large hedge funds involved was also shorting Anglo American Shares at the bottom. Again, another huge blue chip that got pushed down to lows of 218p and weeks later was testing 806p. Odey and other hedge funds should hang their heads in shame. It’s ok shorting stocks from lofty levels. That makes perfect sense. But shorting stocks at near the bottom or capitulation point is schoolboy stuff. No wonder we have a huge banking crisis in 2008/09 if this type of caliber investment company is managing funds with many fingers in many other pies.

If there is one lesson to be learned from the commodity rout, it’s this… do not over speculate. End of. It doesn’t matter what the market mood or global climate, it’s just reckless to speculate in this manner. It’s what makes the markets a bit of a joke and gives them a ‘casino’ name.

Rant over. Lets take a look at end of April positions, and how the newspaper tips (compiled by the ‘experts’) are doing against the Sharehub top ten picks. With Oil at $47pb at present and tipped by many to be near $60pb by year end, there’s clearly plenty more growth room in the Sharehub top ten.

Please note – these picks are not tradable. They are picked at start of year and results measured at end of year. (No trading in and out or on the dips and troughs) Also, some of the newspaper picks (blue chips) do give divi’s and these are not accounted for in the below results.

1. Sharehub top ten  – 40.5% UP
2. Daily Mail top ten – 0.3% UP
3. Independent top ten – 2.5% DOWN